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taal

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There's already been a large shift to open-office no fixed-desk and many companies have already severely reduced the space per employee.

There are a lot of articles talking about "working from home" being the future ... and of course that would have a massive ripple effect on the commercial real-estate market, but I'm not sure I buy it yet ! While some smaller companies are 100% work from home, I just don't think you can build a culture that way ... not sure, just my take ... I think the work from home % will increase for sure, but the vast majority of people still won't (at least not most of the time that is).
 

pw20

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Here's my ten cents (I'm also at a company that's been WFH for 5 weeks now)...
  1. The economic fallout from COVID will be significant. If companies reduce their footprint, however, it won't be because everyone will suddenly start working from home.
  2. We've been WFH for 5 weeks and our MGMT team talks constantly about maintaining productivity and culture. WFH is NOT a panacea.
  3. I do think, beyond the economic ramifications (i.e. downsizing) there will be some structural changes to how businesses operate; these will include:
    1. Rethinking travel, especially international
    2. Reduction in flexible working areas (co-working, IMO, is effectively dead)
TL: DR - there may be overall reduced demand for office space in the near term, but that won't have to do because suddenly every TD manager will be ok with their teams working from home, it will be because the overall economy is depressed.
 

taal

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Here's my ten cents (I'm also at a company that's been WFH for 5 weeks now)...
  1. The economic fallout from COVID will be significant. If companies reduce their footprint, however, it won't be because everyone will suddenly start working from home.
  2. We've been WFH for 5 weeks and our MGMT team talks constantly about maintaining productivity and culture. WFH is NOT a panacea.
  3. I do think, beyond the economic ramifications (i.e. downsizing) there will be some structural changes to how businesses operate; these will include:
    1. Rethinking travel, especially international
    2. Reduction in flexible working areas (co-working, IMO, is effectively dead)
TL: DR - there may be overall reduced demand for office space in the near term, but that won't have to do because suddenly every TD manager will be ok with their teams working from home, it will be because the overall economy is depressed.

Why would "co-working" die ? While I always thought that pendulum swung too far, I don't think we'll ever go back to dedicated offices with doors ... so there will still be a lot flexible working areas.
 

pw20

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Why would "co-working" die ? While I always thought that pendulum swung too far, I don't think we'll ever go back to dedicated offices with doors ... so there will still be a lot flexible working areas.

My thoughts (again - just my opinion):
  1. Lot of co-working space will not survive an 8 month downtown simply because their finances are so screwed (see WeWork, Knotel, the Wing)
  2. 50% of WeWork's revenue comes from companies with 500+ employees, there was a time when companies like AmEx were leasing entire WeWork's to support innovation labs and lord knows what else; when large companies come back to work - they'll a) want to cost cut - goodbye on-tap kombucha and b) i think there will be more of an emphasis on offices that companies can control (this includes who comes in and out, but distance between desks etc).
  3. Landlords will lower office price in order to secure long-term tenants and I think will be more likely to do that with a blue-chip company rather than an arbitrage player (which essentially is what wework is)
  4. The cultural concept of co-working is somewhat antithetical to what I imagine will be an 18 mo hangover of people not wanting to co-work with people they don't know.
Editing this to add a link to this article: https://www.marketplace.org/2020/04/03/will-covid-19-be-the-death-of-coworking-spaces/
 
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Edward Skira

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There's already been a large shift to open-office no fixed-desk and many companies have already severely reduced the space per employee.

Read an interesting article that stated that covid will in fact increase the space per employee. The author believes people won't want to be as close to others as they have been in the past.
 

officedweller

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Why would "co-working" die ? While I always thought that pendulum swung too far, I don't think we'll ever go back to dedicated offices with doors ... so there will still be a lot flexible working areas.

In my little office - or in someone else's little workstation - you know that the germs that are in there are yours and yours alone.
If you have shared work surfaces, those would have to be thoroughly cleaned every night.
That is pretty onerous for the housekeeping staff.
 

taal

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I really can't see that happening, mind you, if we have "covid" situations every few years, sure :) ... but if this is a once in a century incident, with more minor incidents (e.g. SARs, as that was much more isolated) interspersed do you really see us changing how we interact/work/... to keep more "distance" out of fear (mind you tangible fear in cases like this i.e. I'm not saying it's misplaced!) in perpetuity ?
 

rbt

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Read an interesting article that stated that covid will in fact increase the space per employee. The author believes people won't want to be as close to others as they have been in the past.

Increase space or increase the number of dividers? I expect a lot more thin plexiglass walls but not more physical space.

Call centers might have chair-width stalls that extend 3 feet out from the desk.
 

DB13

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I really can't see that happening, mind you, if we have "covid" situations every few years, sure :) ... but if this is a once in a century incident, with more minor incidents (e.g. SARs, as that was much more isolated) interspersed do you really see us changing how we interact/work/... to keep more "distance" out of fear (mind you tangible fear in cases like this i.e. I'm not saying it's misplaced!) in perpetuity ?
It's much like the days after 9/11. Many then thought air travel and dense urban living in fashionable centres would never recover, but once the fear and bad memories subsided, things went the other way.
 

ushahid

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Sorry man no idea. Has anyone noticed that top red part of CN tower looks like a very long Starbucks cup.
20200407_133425.jpg

 

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