News   Aug 29, 2024
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News   Aug 29, 2024
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News   Aug 29, 2024
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Tories blamed for coming deficits

I have no problem with a government running a deficit in recession, it is both inevitable and a far better option than the alternatives. That's not what I'm saying.

The GST cut did not occur just as consumer spending was starting to tank. It occurred well before that, and was not tied in any significant way to the current downturn. It received very little support at the time, and it's consequences will be with us for some time. On this, I hold their feet to the fire.

And, though no one has stated it here, if I ever hear again the oft stated refrain about "conservative" governments not spending vs. "tax and spend liberals", I'll just scream. The entire history of the past several decades has put the lie to that scam. I should think the criminal Bush II has shown us the way "conservatives" behave.
 
3) While it's not bad, Canada's debt load certainly isn't something to be admired. The latest statistics from the OECD that I found were for 2006, where Canada's debt was at 68% of GDP. Still above average. The UK has stated its maximum target debt load is 45%, to give you an idea of what is deemed reasonable.




Huh? You are way off.

And I quote:

- It projects that Canada’s total government net debt-to-GDP ratio, which has been the lowest in the G7 since 2004, will continue to decline in future years.

- The federal debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall to 29.9 per cent in 2007–08. Although it is significantly lower than its peak of 68.4 per cent in 1995–96, it remains higher than the provincial-territorial debt-to-GDP ratio. The Government remains on track to reduce the federal debt to 25 per cent of GDP by 2011–12.

Source: http://www.budget.gc.ca/2008/plan/ann1-eng.asp
 
1) Harper promised during the election campaign to keep a balanced budget. Now I didn't believe him for an instant, but it was a glaring vote-grab (by all parties) and I'd like for people to be able to trust their representatives. Short weeks ago Flaherty was still committed to a balanced budget.

I agree that was a boneheaded promise. But find me another party that said they were open to running a deficit. Did Stephane or Jack say they were?
And what do you think would have happened had Harper come out and said he was open to a deficit?

2) I don't know if it's been made here, but the "slippery slope" argument certainly applies. Governments who allow themselves to slip into deficit are vulnerable to continuing the slip to maintain programmes and create new ones. The same argument can apply to the other side, increased taxation (i.e. governments get addicted to increased revenues).

And government was getting addicted to increased revenue. The huge surpluses were simply prompting calls for higher and higer spending instead of smarter spending on national priorities.

That being said, the argument that this deficit was caused entirely by this government's finance policies is spurious. If there was no slowdown, we would not be having this debate. We had a 10 billion dollar surplus that was wiped out by the 2% GST cut. Each point cut off the GST costed about 5 billion in revenue. The deficit, however, was entirely a result of the slowdown.

3) While it's not bad, Canada's debt load certainly isn't something to be admired. The latest statistics from the OECD that I found were for 2006, where Canada's debt was at 68% of GDP. Still above average. The UK has stated its maximum target debt load is 45%, to give you an idea of what is deemed reasonable.

http://miranda.sourceoecd.org/vl=1841867/cl=11/nw=1/rpsv/factbook/100102-g1.htm

Have a look at more up-to-date stats. We aren't all that bad. About OECD average on debt/gdp. But now have a look at the fiscal positions of the OECD:

http://miranda.sourceoecd.org/vl=1841867/cl=11/nw=1/rpsv/factbook/100101-g1.htm

I am fairly sure that running a 13 billion dollar deficit (about 1% of GDP) would hardly put us in the same league as many of those countries. We are certainly doing better than the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, etc. to name a few power houses. Heck, running that 50 billion dollar deficit (averaging less than 1% of GDP per annum) over 5 years would still prove to be better management than most of the OECD.

Lastly, when using OECD stats you have to keep in mind, those stats consider the total debt from all levels of government. The federal portion is in the low 30s. We were on track to his 25% of GDP by 2012. I guess that target will have to be bumped back a bit.

In summary, I am ok with running a deficit during a recession, but only if it's not too deep and the government is able to pull itself out fairly quickly and easily.

So what would you do if the recession was deep? Policies have to consistent regardless of the depth of the ups and downs in the economic cycle. And how do you judge how deep a recession is going to be? If we had that good a crystal ball, we would not be in this mess to begin with.
 
Despite that...what's so bad about a deficit during a downturn? Nobody is answering that. It is damn sound policy to run a deficit when times are bad. So what if it's 50 billion over the next 5 years. Compared to what the rest of the G8 is running, we look like discount Walmart shoppers.

The point was that the country would have been much further from deficit had the GST not been cut. In other words, we could have actually been investing a surplus for some of that time rather than running a deficit all the way through.

Just because others are doing deficits does not mean we have to. The fact of the matter is the Conservatives have essentially squandered a much better economic position by handing out a tax cut as a means to attract votes.
 
The point was that the country would have been much further from deficit had the GST not been cut. In other words, we could have actually been investing a surplus for some of that time rather than running a deficit all the way through.

Just because others are doing deficits does not mean we have to. The fact of the matter is the Conservatives have essentially squandered a much better economic position by handing out a tax cut as a means to attract votes.

They didn't squander the surplus on tax cuts, they squandered it on massive spending increases. If the Tories had just maintained Paul Martin levels of spending, adjusted for inflation and growth, the government would still have a 40 odd billion surplus, that number includes the GST cut and the rest. Paul Martin has blame for this as well. His health care plan has bankrupted the government and bankrupted Ontario. They were basically multi-billion dollar additions to the equalization program and, worst of all, were indexed to 6% annual growth. Every year, federal health care transfers have to grow by 6%. Ontario's growth rates of late have been, what 1%? If that? How are we suposed to afford these transfers?
 
1) What's so bad about a deficit? Especially during an economic downturn?

It was avoidable. Borrowing $50 billion to get us through what the Bank of Canada suggests should be a minor recession in Canada is irresponsible.

2) Is it right that any government would purposely collect tens of billions in extra revenue (that they didn't budget for) just so they could look good?

Keith, structurally speaking Canada should be investing in the future in some way. Our governments have a ticking population timebomb on their hands in the form of decrepit, aging boomers. The responsible thing at this juncture would be to address our future liabilities. My pet is infrastructure investment as it supports future increases in GDP, getting more bang for the buck that debt repayment. However, debt repayment is more responsible that doing, frankly, jack sh!t.

No doubt, the GST cut was not the wisest tax cut. But it is still a tax cut and one that was aimed at boosting consumer spending just as consumer spending started to tank. I think the Tories should get at least partial credit for cutting taxes during a slowdown.

The cuts were promised in 2005/2006. They had nothing to do with this recession. To suggest otherwise is revisionist. Secondly, Canada's economy isn't driven by domestic demand. Stimulating domestic demand leaks out of our economy through imports even more than it does in the US. It would be more responsible to create an environment conducive to foreign investment in Canada. The last kind of tax cut that accomplishes that is a GST cut. The cut was of dubious economic merit!

The Liberal election platform was to suck more revenue out of the economy with most of their tax cuts and social services going towards low-income folks (hardly the job creating types).

Low income people tend to spend their income. Notwithstanding what I said above about domestic consumption, tax cuts for the low end are spent more than cuts for the high end (more likely to be invested).

Overall, the Liberals would have cut taxes, substantially.


Next, I rather think it's unfair to criticize unless you have ideas on how to solve the problem. I used to have a commander who used to tell all of his junior officers, "Don't come to me with a problem, unless you have a solution." Same applies here. It's easy to criticize. But let's hear the Opposition's game plan. From my perspective, for once a government is taking a sound, cautious non-reactionary approach. And here the opposition is blabbering away, simultaneously demanding a reduction in government spending, a magical solution to a global economic crisis (which they don't have), and an increase in social and infrastructure spending....all of which are contradictory goals. If this is the Liberal position, and they take down the Conservatives on that, the tories will automatically get my vote for being the most responsible of the bunch.

No, I have every right to blame the Conservatives. They got us into this mess, and I opposed them every inch of the way, suggesting alternatives. This is their bed, and now they get to lie in it.

Have the Conservatives made some poor choices? Sure. We can all agree that a corporate tax cut would have been wiser than the GST cut. Well maybe the dippers would rather have no tax cuts at all. But that debate was there last election. The voters passed judgement. They took their two cents and voted in the Conservatives. It's time to move on to the here and now. Unless the Liberals are proposing to raise the GST, they should start offering real solutions to the current crisis.

Bullshit. An election doesn't wipe away stupidity and mismanagement. Nor does it wipe away corruption (Cadman bribery, In-and-out embezzlement, etc.) or incompetence (Income trusts). 'They' (the voters), voted overwhelmingly for parties without the initials CPC.

Oh, and it bears mentioning that Harper issued a bald-faced lie to voters hardly more than a month ago, repeatedly and categorically refusing to ever run a deficit. This projected deficit didn't suddenly arise in the past 30 days, economists have been suggesting for the past few months that we'd see one next year. He didn't stretch the truth. He knowingly and repeatedly lied to Canadians.

The Opposition should also quit conflating the current crisis. Canada has sound fundamentals. But we were bound to get hit by the global crisis at some point. The fundamentals have not changed (low deficit position, middle of the pack debt/gdp ratio, well funded social services, etc.) Our economy remains one of the strongest in the developed world. The PM was damn right to say that during the election. What the hell was he supposed to say? "As PM of Canada, I believe the country is financially unsound and is heading down the toilet." Yes, he should have told the world that, and knocked another 500-1000 points of the TSX. According to the Liberals and NDP that would have been the appropriate course of action here.

There is a a gulf between the positions "Everything is A-OK" and "Don't invest here".



Kieth, you should also remember that this statement was not made by a Liberal, or any partisan. It was made by the head of the Parliamentary Budget Office, a nonpartisan appointee of the Harper government. He is the one telling truth to power. You are calling for collective denial of the situation we find ourselves in.
 
I agree that was a boneheaded promise. But find me another party that said they were open to running a deficit. Did Stephane or Jack say they were?

It wasn't boneheaded. It was a calculated lie.

Dion said that he wouldn't "cause" a deficit. He wouldn't exacerbate an existing one. He had a much more principled position that Harper.

And what do you think would have happened had Harper come out and said he was open to a deficit?

He would have been roasted for his poor management, and rightly so. How would Canadians vote if they were to cast their ballots at the end of November instead of 6 weeks earlier? Do recall that Harper called an election of questionable legality.

Do you now condone politicians issuing baldfaced lies on matters of great significance for political expediency? If so, you are incredibly cynical and you deserve the mess of a government you voted for.

And government was getting addicted to increased revenue. The huge surpluses were simply prompting calls for higher and higer spending instead of smarter spending on national priorities.

If I'm not mistaken, the federal government is around its smallest size in half a century as a proportion of GDP. I've explained to you before that reducing our reliance on highly volatile sources of tax revenue such as corporate profits would lead to more predictable revenues.

That being said, the argument that this deficit was caused entirely by this government's finance policies is spurious. If there was no slowdown, we would not be having this debate. We had a 10 billion dollar surplus that was wiped out by the 2% GST cut. Each point cut off the GST costed about 5 billion in revenue. The deficit, however, was entirely a result of the slowdown.

Then why did Harper lie about it? Why were there predictions of deficit issued before the credit crisis came to a head?


Lastly, when using OECD stats you have to keep in mind, those stats consider the total debt from all levels of government. The federal portion is in the low 30s. We were on track to his 25% of GDP by 2012. I guess that target will have to be bumped back a bit.

It is entirely reasonable to consider total government debt, otherwise debt could be hidden in other levels of government.

So what would you do if the recession was deep? Policies have to consistent regardless of the depth of the ups and downs in the economic cycle. And how do you judge how deep a recession is going to be? If we had that good a crystal ball, we would not be in this mess to begin with.

Consistent policies, eh? I wonder what will happen to the policies that Harper just promised to enact in this past campaign? He's already backed off many of them (the ones that cost $$$), and that was only in the Speech from the Throne! But don't worry, in these difficult times, Harper has promised to plow ahead in that urgent matter of....


SENATE REFORM!


Keith, I have to call you on the hypocrisy of criticizing the Liberals for acting in partisan self-interest while condoning the utterly cynical and partisan performance of the CPC in this past election. They created a policy platform they knew they couldn't fund, and obviously had no intention of implementing. You voted for them, and are still cheering for them. Incredible!
 
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A lot of the Tory propaganda about the deficit that we've been seeing is intimately related to the mud they used to sling at Paul Martin for running surpluses that were "too big". If people didn't actually take that stuff seriously at the time, I'd find it completely hilarious, but what they did was accuse Paul Martin of "stealing" people's money because the budget didn't come to exactly "0" at the end of the year. Obviously it's impossible for a government to project exactly what its income or expenses are going to be a year in advance. That's why Martin always built in a comfortable cushion. When oil prices rocketed past levels nobody ever imagined, the budget surplus wound up way higher than planned. If, however, oil prices had stayed at their expected levels, or even dipped a bit, we would have still been left with a modest surplus. Same thing in the event of an unexpected housing bust or crisis in our manufacturing sector.

What Harper did when he was elected was quickly slash government revenues. He even eliminated the contingency reserve that Martin always budgeted. In an attempt to embarrass the Liberals by mentioning the word "GST"--the pundits applauded his tactical coup--Harper cost the government over $10 billion in revenue a year. That's our entire defence budget, to give you an idea of the scale. If he hadn't made those cuts, which every economist has dismissed as useless, we would be in a vastly better position to maintain our budgetary balance or, if desired, we would have much more room to spend borrowed money on real economic stimulus, like infrastructure. We also wouldn't be forced to go to the capital markets in the midst of a financial crisis, crowding out opportunities for much-needed private sector borrowing.

Don't buy into this stuff about the GST cut being "progressive". There are all kinds of reasons why value added taxes are actually one of the best ways to capture taxes from the very wealthy, since they don't have the extensive loopholes of the income tax system that high-priced accountants can exploit. There's no question that the most progressive tax policy out there is raising the basic personal exemption and cutting the rate for the lowest income tax bracket. But what did Harper immediately after he got elected? He lowered the basic personal exemption and raised taxes for the lowest income tax bracket. Funny how the anti-tax crusaders never called him out on that one.
 
It was avoidable. Borrowing $50 billion to get us through what the Bank of Canada suggests should be a minor recession in Canada is irresponsible.

And if it proves to be a minor recession, we won't be borrowing 50 billion. Somehow, I suspect this will be a much tougher recession than anyone is willing to admit at this point.

The cuts were promised in 2005/2006. They had nothing to do with this recession. To suggest otherwise is revisionist. Secondly, Canada's economy isn't driven by domestic demand. Stimulating domestic demand leaks out of our economy through imports even more than it does in the US. It would be more responsible to create an environment conducive to foreign investment in Canada. The last kind of tax cut that accomplishes that is a GST cut. The cut was of dubious economic merit!

I am not disputing that the GST cut was a bad one. But even the Star is willing to admit that it has helped bump up the economy as it was entering a downturn....after all the second cut was due this Jan and the government moved it up. That being said, i agree it was hardly the wisest decision.

Overall, the Liberals would have cut taxes, substantially.

They have. And in that time period they earned my vote. But their last platform deviated by proposing to raise net tax revenue. To me that's a tax increase. It may not come out of my pocket. But it's still an increase. Now, I may not mind increases, (I strongly support property tax increases), but don't try to sell them as a solution to rapidly developing economic crises. And don't try to lie about robbing the middle class to direct virtually all the tax cuts to the low end.

No, I have every right to blame the Conservatives. They got us into this mess, and I opposed them every inch of the way, suggesting alternatives. This is their bed, and now they get to lie in it.

Fair enough. That's your view. My view is...you don't earn credit for merely bitching. If the Liberals believe that the GST was devastating to our nation's finances let them have the testicular fortitude to say that the cut should be rescinded.

Bullshit. An election doesn't wipe away stupidity and mismanagement. Nor does it wipe away corruption (Cadman bribery, In-and-out embezzlement, etc.) or incompetence (Income trusts).

It's talk like that, which makes Liberals seem bitter....and increasingly more bitter than the Conservatives seem angry or paranoid.

'They' (the voters), voted overwhelmingly for parties without the initials CPC.

So if you accept this as a fact, than the Liberals should bear some responsibility in proposing constructive solutions. They can't have it both ways on this one.

Oh, and it bears mentioning that Harper issued a bald-faced lie to voters hardly more than a month ago, repeatedly and categorically refusing to ever run a deficit. This projected deficit didn't suddenly arise in the past 30 days, economists have been suggesting for the past few months that we'd see one next year. He didn't stretch the truth. He knowingly and repeatedly lied to Canadians.

Find me a quote where Dion said he would run a deficit. Otherwise, he simply did what the other leaders did. It's not right, but sadly it's par for the course.

There is a a gulf between the positions "Everything is A-OK" and "Don't invest here".

Unfortunately, the PM remains the PM during an election campaign. Saying negative things would well have impacted investor and consumer confidence. I am glad, he did not do that. And to the credit of other parties, I am fairly sure they would have acted the same way.

Keith, you should also remember that this statement was not made by a Liberal, or any partisan. It was made by the head of the Parliamentary Budget Office, a nonpartisan appointee of the Harper government. He is the one telling truth to power. You are calling for collective denial of the situation we find ourselves in.

I am hardly calling for collective denial. I am calling for some collective responsibility here. All our parties have to work together instead of merely continuing their election campaigns.

It wasn't boneheaded. It was a calculated lie.

Dion said that he wouldn't "cause" a deficit. He wouldn't exacerbate an existing one. He had a much more principled position that Harper.

So evasive answers are now considered principled. Duly noted.

He would have been roasted for his poor management, and rightly so.

This is an issue of sound bite politics. When he said the fundamentals were sound, he was right. Heck, we had jobs growth last month. But it's a global economic crisis and we are going to get affected.

As to poor management, I am willing to give him a partial pass because he cut taxes, albeit the wrong one.


How would Canadians vote if they were to cast their ballots at the end of November instead of 6 weeks earlier? Do recall that Harper called an election of questionable legality.

Yes, there's court cases winding through on that right now. Yes the Conservatives seem unpopular in the polls right now. But if it was election time today, the Green Shift would have been a god send to the Conservatives. A platform that would have raised revenues, changed the entire tax framework and directed the cuts to the poor not the struggling middle class. The Libs should be glad they lost as few seats as they did.

Do you now condone politicians issuing baldfaced lies on matters of great significance for political expediency?

No I don't. But I have never supported idiotic fixed terms either. Only in Canada, would folks bitch about practicing democracy. Oh no, we have to have an election! Fixed terms give us two year long campaigns like what we have south of the border. I would never support that here.

If I'm not mistaken, the federal government is around its smallest size in half a century as a proportion of GDP.

Nothing wrong with that. Or should we go back to the lovely 'socially progressive' fiscal policies that we had in the 70s and 80s?

I've explained to you before that reducing our reliance on highly volatile sources of tax revenue such as corporate profits would lead to more predictable revenues.

And I have repeatedly explained to you that I do not support cutting the GST. I also strongly agree that the GST needs to be harmonized with all the provinces (Ontario in particular).

Then why did Harper lie about it? Why were there predictions of deficit issued before the credit crisis came to a head?

There were no predictions of deficit before the credit crisis came to a head. There was a single month of red ink before the government was back in black. Moreover, by the AG's account the government was on the mark in expecting to break even or have a small surplus. Discussion about deficits only started in September.

It is entirely reasonable to consider total government debt, otherwise debt could be hidden in other levels of government.

It was merely a statement to the other poster on how to use the stats. My points stands, we aren't anywhere as bad as the rest of the OECD though.

Consistent policies, eh? I wonder what will happen to the policies that Harper just promised to enact in this past campaign? He's already backed off many of them (the ones that cost $$$), and that was only in the Speech from the Throne!

Read the other poster's quote. I was responding to that in reference to consistent policy.

As for the Conservative campaign promises....what has he backed of on? I have seen no budget yet that's shed pledges that he made. Campaign promises are made for the full term, not for one month after an election. He has 4 years to get them done. If the economy is pressing, letting him take care of that first. I would expect the same if the Liberals had been in power. Or would you be carping about the Liberals backing off campaign promises based on vague sentences in a throne speech a month after the election. When the policies come, we'll discuss them then.

Keith, I have to call you on the hypocrisy of criticizing the Liberals for acting in partisan self-interest while condoning the utterly cynical and partisan performance of the CPC in this past election.

I never said I condoned the CPC's behaviour. I really had to put the nose clip on to vote for them this time. My vote this time had more to do with my concern about the devastation the Green Shift would bring in a recession than support for specific Conservative policies. And I stand by my contention that the Libs needed some time in the penalty box to renew themselves. So far, they're lack of an alternate vision is not inspiring confidence.

They created a policy platform they knew they couldn't fund, and obviously had no intention of implementing. You voted for them, and are still cheering for them. Incredible!

To my knowledge, their platform was far cheaper than the Liberal one. Please correct me if I am wrong. And they have 4 years to do it. A month in, is kind of a short time frame to judge how much of that platform will or not be fulfilled.
 
Which still makes the tax cut a stupid idea, no?

I don't think he meant it like that. He meant that the deficit has more to do with the rise in spending than the reduction in revenue from the tax cut. That's true. Spending has risen 25% since the Conservatives have gotten elected. And that, is disconcerting.
 
Its only taken two short years to erase 10 years of good budgetary management by the new Tories. And people still voted for this guy? LOL
 
Its only taken two short years to erase 10 years of good budgetary management by the new Tories. And people still voted for this guy? LOL

Yeah, because a global economic crisis started in your homeland is all their fault.... and this coming from a citizen of the same country who gave the world an 8 year migraine.
 
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Keith:

I said: "Overall, the Liberals would have cut taxes, substantially."

You said:
"They have. And in that time period they earned my vote. But their last platform deviated by proposing to raise net tax revenue. To me that's a tax increase. It may not come out of my pocket. But it's still an increase. Now, I may not mind increases, (I strongly support property tax increases), but don't try to sell them as a solution to rapidly developing economic crises. And don't try to lie about robbing the middle class to direct virtually all the tax cuts to the low end."

Maybe you misunderstand. The Green Shift promised a significant reduction in taxation in net terms. The Liberals promised $50 billion reductions in corporate income taxes, in addition to the tax shifting for the Green Shift. That you believe otherwise is a testament to the success of Tory spin and the failure of the LPC to get their message out.

"Find me a quote where Dion said he would run a deficit. Otherwise, he simply did what the other leaders did. It's not right, but sadly it's par for the course."

As I've said, Dion said that he would not 'cause' a deficit. Cagey, but honest. If you find this worse that Harper lying about whether he'd run deficits, while his government was planning to run a deficit, I'm astonished. That isn't cagey, that's dishonest. And you're cheering for his lies. I'm sure Dion had wanted to be more forthright, but he was unwilling to lie by saying something like "No deficit, ever".

"As to poor management, I am willing to give him a partial pass because he cut taxes, albeit the wrong one."

How about his increasing spending at nearly twice the rate he said he planned to, and faster even than the supposedly spend-thrift Martin government? He increased spending faster than any PM since before Chretien. Had he held to even the high rate of spending increase that Martin budgeted, we likely wouldn't be facing deficits.
 
Keith:

No comment on how Harper plans to expend Parliamentary attention and political capital on Senate reform--something which is doomed to failure without proposing a constitutional amendment? He was vague on what he plans to do about the economy in the Throne Speech, but crystal clear on his intent to push forward with this.

And Keith, if the government doesn't know what to do, they have no business governing. It is not the job of the opposition to propose government policy, but rather to critique it. In the House of Commons, we saw a rather bizarre display. Flaherty said this:

“I know there is an economic team over there that is going to get together and talk about this and come up with a theme and some suggestions. When they do, and I mean this in a cooperative way, I would love to hear their suggestions about the manner in which we can stimulate the economy.â€

So, the government seeks policy solutions from the party that would have caused economic devastation had they been elected? Seems to me they are more interested in sharing blame--they aren't enjoying sitting in the big chair at the moment.
 

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