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To buy now ? or wait till the fall.........

My husband and I have been deliberating the exact same thing. We sold our house three years ago in suburbia and moved into Toronto and renting since. We poured over real estate articles and surveyed anyone who would listen to us...they all said "Wait wait wait the market is going to turn-trust us we've been through this before". In the meantime we isolated our areas of interest -Davisville, Beach, Yonge and Lawrence. So we've been waiting and waiting-kind of kicking ourselves we didn't buy last winter when things were slow (agents in Davisville were giving us their resumes!). Bidding wars are back with a vengeance and semis are almost at 700K! Our agent told us yesterday that he expects supply to increase this Fall but demand will be sustained. Worried our Toronto dream is fading. Maybe thinking of hanging in until winter again.
 
the best times to buy is in the winter. RE is usually slow because people don't like to move in the cold I guess?
 
If it's a house you're looking for, I really don't see prices decreasing at all as the stock is limited and almost no new housing is being created in the core - it's simple math. However, condo's are the opposite. There are 10000's of new units coming online over the next 1 1/2 years and while I don't expect the drop to be large, smaller units like 1 bed, and 1+ will probably be hit price wise. Expect that to start happening around February next year and continue to happen until mid 2011 at which point things should stabilize because a lot has been pulled from the market and new projects haven't even materialized because of the recession. The new condo market, while doing better, is still in the doldrums at 40% below last years levels - which is a good thing and will stabilize prices after this initial glut, imo.
 
what is wrong with renting? Do you feel like you are somehow postponing your life? You can rent houses and condos for less than the costs of owning them (mortgage plus expenses), plus you don't have an illiquid asset or have to worry about the upkeep. Take it from this homeowner -- the grass is not greener on the ownership side. I have found the following blog to be very incisive on this topic--

http://homefinancefreedom.blogspot.com/2007/09/do-not-confuse-houses-with-housing.html
 
Those of you predicting 10% interest rates: Never say never, but I'd be highly surprised if that happens in the next 5 years. In other words, if you're counting on 10% interest rates before you buy, you'll be waiting a very, very long time. And it's not as if you'll save any money anyway, unless you buy the place in cash.

OTOH, I wouldn't be surprised to see say a 7% 5-year fixed rate in 5 years... which is the time current 5-year terms reset. Those of you who are buying now should really consider that. If you're leveraging yourself to the max with a 35-year amortization now, then you may be in for a big shock when you're up for renewal in 2014. I often suggest to people that they should target their purchases such that they can afford a 25-year amortization or better. If so, then they can consider a 35-year amortization with early repayments, to give themselves more flexibility.


the best times to buy is in the winter. RE is usually slow because people don't like to move in the cold I guess?
True to an extent, but not so much at the low end of the price scale, and esp. not for condos in the core.

A real estate agent mentioned to me a while back that in the Toronto market, if you're buying a bigger detached home, winter is often the best time to buy. But then again, you may be limiting yourself because a lot of the new listings come to market in the spring, and the good ones are sold by the summer. OTOH, if you're looking at a condo under $400000, don't expect any price discounts just because it's winter. I've been superficially following the market, and it seems his statement is more or less accurate. Lower prices for big detached homes but poorer selection in the winter, and no real price discount for 2-bedroom condos. Things were cheaper this last winter, not because it was winter, but because we had an economic crisis.

I don't know about $300000 west Scarborough houses though.


what is wrong with renting? Do you feel like you are somehow postponing your life? You can rent houses and condos for less than the costs of owning them (mortgage plus expenses), plus you don't have an illiquid asset or have to worry about the upkeep. Take it from this homeowner -- the grass is not greener on the ownership side.
Take this from this homeowner. The grass is much greener on the ownership side. ;)

Seriously though, there are plusses and minuses to both sides. The biggest problems for me was that nice detached homes in nice neighbourhoods are hard to find to rent, and even if you do find one you can't do anything to the place. With an owned home you can make any modifications you want (within reason). Furthermore, there's always the worry about getting kicked out at the end of the lease. The plus about getting a rented home is that maintenance costs get borne by the owner - and maintenance costs sometimes can be very, very expensive, esp. for older homes. But then again, in rentals often times things go unfixed for months.

As for the asset being illiquid, that is true. I wouldn't buy if I didn't expect to stay in one place for 5 years or more.
 
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Skibadee,

In your price range and as I assume a first-time home buyer,the thing is forces will always conspire against your objectives because your are always competing against a pool of buyers with the same resources and similar objectives.

Technically, from a long-term investment perspective this is not a good time to buy. Don't however let this cloud your judgement with respect to realizing your own life objectives. Taking action, making a move forward, will almost always generate a more positive outcome than sitting back and waiting. What will determine if this action is a success or not has more to do with how it motivates or initiates you to take further action towards realizing the broad range of objectives in your life.

The point is always take action and make a move, but do so with eyes wide open. This property you want to purchase will underperform historic norms in terms of price appreciation. It may even decline slightly in inflation adjusted value. Do not purchase if you are overextending yourself financially. Understand the basic worth of properties in the area and do not get caught up in emotionally charged bidding wars even if you are desperate because you failed in several previous attempts. Do not be constraint by limiting belief, there is always another suitable choice.
 
Yep.

The market numbers do not suggest this is a "good time to buy" in the context of investments. However, people still need to live somewhere, and if you're willing to weather potential price declines and if your finances are in good standing, I see no problems in buying for your primary home.

Conversely, there's no point in buying just for the sake of buying. People often get caught up in the moment, and end up spending less time researching their home purchase than they do for their latest electronic gadget. I'm still confused how people are so willing to forego home inspections for 60 year old detached homes for example just to win a bidding war.
 
The same people so sure about their projections are the same ones who projected we'd be cannibalizing our neighbors for nourishment by now.
 
home inspections - cash in the wind

Yep.
I'm still confused how people are so willing to forego home inspections for 60 year old detached homes for example just to win a bidding war.

As a bit of an aside - As the owner of an 80 year old home, I would never pay for a home inspection again. We used a reputable company (Carson Dunlop) 3 years ago when we purchased and it was some of the worst money I have ever spent. The thing about old houses is that in general they tend to have relatively straightforward mechanics and, particularly when the basement is unfinished, it doesn't take a genius to identify knob and tube wiring and a cast iron stack. Our home inspector really didn't tell us anything we didn't know. I suspected that there was some asbestos in the basement, and when I asked he said that he was not qualified to render an opinion and I would have to pay for a specialist inspection. The only other possibly useful piece of information from the inspection was an estimate of cost of some of the work re-wiring etc. and his estimates were less than half of reality - anyone know how to get a detached 3-bed home rewired for 6K? :p He was so bad, even our real estate agent warned us that the guesstimates were well away from reality.

In my opinion, it is a much better idea to get a contractor to walk the property with you if you are unfamiliar with old buildings, and get a specialist (e.g. a structural engineer) in for any particular concerns.
My 2c worth....
AmJ
 
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In my opinion, it is a much better idea to get a contractor to walk the property with you if you are unfamiliar with old buildings, and get a specialist (e.g. a structural engineer) in for any particular concerns.
My 2c worth....
AmJ
True. However some other buyers would not know how to recognize knob and tube, and that inspector did recommend consulting someone else with more knowledge about the asbestos. Another thing to consider is getting the main drains snaked. By the way, there are a lot of bad contractors out there too, and many of the good ones probably can't be bothered to do home inspections anyway because they're too busy building houses. I'm having a hard enough time getting contractors to come out to bid on renovations to my basement. Imagine trying to get those guys to come out for a home inspection? Not gonna happen.

The point though is not to walk into the purchase blind, which many bidders these days do, just to win the bidding war.
 
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renovated without permits?

Nod, nod - avoiding arguing about the relative merits of bad contractors versus bad home inspectors. (I suspect that they are some of the same people anyway...)

Eug - You sound like you might know the answer to this one... Do real estate lawyers check for outstanding building permits prior to closing as a norm, or is it someone else's job? (It wasn't relevant in our case as clearly nothing had been done to the house in decades, so I don't know...) Commonly houses are flipped in our area without any permits displayed and trash removed at night by van - and the houses sell and close anyway. When people buy these disasters-waiting-to-happen, I always wonder if they do it knowingly or not...

AmJ
 
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Do real estate lawyers check for outstanding building permits prior to closing as a norm, or is it someone else's job?
Not sure, but I don't think so. In fact, I'm not sure why they would, but I am not a lawyer. In any case, this was not discussed as being part of the usual work up when my lawyers went over my purchases, and the last home I bought had stuff done to it fairly recently before purchase. More concerned about liens, easements, etc.
 
If you buy an older house, add a minimum of $20k to purchase price for renovations. $7-10k for rewiring knob and tube, $2k for plumbing, $5k for materials and tools, and another $2k to pay a friend to help you renovate. More if roofing etc is needed.

Buy in the winter--January is great.:D
 
Below is a post that was done by someone at Garth Turner blog, I don't know
how much it can be trusted though, here it is( I just copied and pasted it here):

My brother just rented his second house to a RE agent and his wife who sold their home a couple of months ago and now choose to rent. I couldn’t believe it and I asked him was he sure and he said 100% yes. It’s seems that now is not the good time as I head more and mroe stories about bankers and now RE agents selling their homes and going to rent. What do they know that we don’t?
 

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