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To buy now ? or wait till the fall.........

S

Skibadee

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Im looking for a house in West Scarborough.

Not much in my range at the moment $300k or less.

Houses that do come up in my range usally have bidding wars

My question to the general forum is this.........


Do I make the move on something that I kinda like now
it has what im looking for for the most part but its on a main road : (
or do I wait till the fall winter and hope something else comes up

Some things to consider....

Lots of people seem to be looking in my area - multi bid offers

Not alot for sale now in the summer months wont it be worse in the dead of winter?

I need to make a move by Jan 1st 09
 
I've been thinking about buying a condo but it really doesn't seem like a very good time. There's very very little inventory out there right now. New Listings were down 20% this July versus last July, with Active Listings down a crazy 40%.

Sellers seem to be holding off from listing, hoping for an even stronger market resurgence maybe? But low inventory and low interest rates are what's keeping the market going at the moment.

I'd wait. That's what I'm going to do. The last thing you want to do is pick a house because it's the only one available and then get into a stupid bidding war over it.
 
Everyone keeps saying wait till the rates go up

But the rates where up just a few summers ago, the the marekets where on fire


It seems like by the time the rates go up public confedence will also be up
and then you will have the same houses worth more (because the marekts are stronger) with higher rates

When my agent shows me listings from this past winter and I see the number
it appears the best time to buy really was last winter

At the end of the day Toronto is the immigration Mecca
there will always be someone looking
 
No, he means really, really up. As in 10%, possibly, if the U.S. government decides to inflate itself out of its debt hole. We'll have to follow, because we the CDN government can't allow the CDN $ to spend much time above par to the US $. I'm not entirely convinced of this scenario.

I think there's a convincing case to be made to wait til the fall, because there's a decent chance the markets will have a significant retrace then. Once people realize that stimulus money isn't endless, and that most of the good earnings numbers were due to layoffs and cost-cutting, we're heading back under 10,000 on the TSX.
 
Skibadee said:
Everyone keeps saying wait till the rates go up

But the rates where up just a few summers ago, the the marekets where on fire


It seems like by the time the rates go up public confedence will also be up
and then you will have the same houses worth more (because the marekts are stronger) with higher rates

When my agent shows me listings from this past winter and I see the number
it appears the best time to buy really was last winter

At the end of the day Toronto is the immigration Mecca
there will always be someone looking
Click to expand...


RE markets are the slowest from November to January; and ALWAYS pick up from there so it's not really a surprise to anyone that sales and prices are up.
 
The government will never let the rates go back to 10% ++++

They will end up with housing crisis all over again
 
yea. If rates go up too high, there won't be new homes built. They can't collect more taxes, fees and levies :p And unemployment will rise in the construction and other related sectors.
 
to me, the decision to buy now is an easy one... the thing that complicates it in your situation is that you are not finding what you are looking for in your price range. I say get in now while interest rates are as low as they can get. Maybe you can move up in a few years after you have some equity built up.

I had been waiting and waiting for the right moment to buy a car over the last 2 years or so. I finally made the move a couple weeks ago. I just felt the deals arent going to get much better and there was dwindling stock on the car I wanted - Pontiac G6 - which is no longer going to be made. I was lucky enough to be able to pay cash but I still saved around $10k compared to what the same car would have cost me a year ago.
 
Skibadee said:
The government will never let the rates go back to 10% ++++

They will end up with housing crisis all over again
Click to expand...


overall inflation is more of a worry than a potential housing crisis.
the current average 5-year fixed rate is around 4.5 - 5.0%, and housing values don't need a 500 basis point increase in rates to see an adjustment.

if we don't get a price correction downwards within the next year, we will see one in 5 years from now come renewals unless rates remain the same.
 
daveto said:
:rolleyes:
Click to expand...






You really think the government is going to let this go 360 the other way?

Yes some people who could only afford due to low rates now will lose.

The day sof 15% or more are long gone, with the boom of housing now

they cant have half the country lose there homes because of a 11% mortgage rate

I cant predict the future but the rates will probably never see 8% or more
or else by the time the States and Canada are out of this recession
in a few years theres going to be a ton of people losing there houses
while apparenly the marekts are booming again

Its a fine ballance.
 
Sikabee,

70% of mortgages in canada are fixed (not variable) and are set in relation to the bond market. The gov't has little to do with it. As for the variable market, the gov't ability to set the BoC rate low is limited by many, many other considerations. They don't have free rein to do as they please.

If you think it is impossible to see an 8% mortgage (the longterm avg!?), then that is some crazy optimism you've got going there.
 
Therion said:
No, he means really, really up. As in 10%, possibly, if the U.S. government decides to inflate itself out of its debt hole.
Click to expand...

Well, I was actually thinking of a more modest increase of around 2%. That's still going to price out many of the first home buyers that you're currently competing against (who base their purchase price more on current monthly payments, than total price).

The government can't keep rates at these extreme lows for very long. They won't allow an all out US-style crash, but they'll certainly let house prices fall 10-20% if a recovery in the economy is already underway.
 
I'd wait. Why not save more money for a bigger downpayment? When interest rates rise to say 7% or so, you'll be able to afford a larger place (less demand due to rate rise) and put down more money. Get a variable, so when rates go back down again you can lock in lower. That way, you will be used to higher payments, unlike the guys that buy now that may lose their homes....
 
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