kEiThZ
Superstar
Start questioning the physics and logic and the trolls will attack you for daring to question Musk's genius.
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The Coming Disruption of Transport
- Thread starter kEiThZ
- Start date
Start questioning the physics and logic and the trolls will attack you for daring to question Musk's genius.
afransen
Senior Member
I think the boosters and the haters go too far to either extreme. Musk is not infallible nor is he a completely incompetent charlatan. I am not quick to completely dismiss what he says even if at first it seems to me to be strange or infeasible. Hyperloop was always an idea he didn't invest much in. He put far more energy into boring machines and the 'Loop" idea, which to me is essentially an underground PRT/GRT solution. I think PRT has some potential to fill a niche in urban mobility to displace cars. I'm not convinced that tunnels with road-legal cars is the best way to design such a system, but Musk is the only person with sufficient resources that is seriously pursuing the concept without relying on government to fund the idea. Maybe it will work, maybe not.
I was skeptical of some things in the past, like the idea they could sell incomplete FSD/autopilot for a huge sum. That's a big part of why Tesla is so profitable and successful at this juncture. I am skeptical of the idea of them jacking up the price for the functionality to $30k+ when it is sufficiently demonstrated to be hands-free autonomy. It makes more sense to charge per km for private use, and to take a larger revenue share for pooled robotaxis than to charge a huge up front price.
TRONto
Active Member
Something I noted in the recent articles about Loblaws autonomous trucking "“Autonomous delivery enables Loblaw to operate more routes and make more frequent trips, establishing a supply chain that is safer, more sustainable and more resilient,” the news release reads."
More frequent trips can increase congestion. Let's hope those increased trip are all off peak.
More frequent trips can increase congestion. Let's hope those increased trip are all off peak.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I hope the recent Musk text leaks and his ignorant takes on Ukraine help show how vapid and ignorant he can be, beyond building cars and rockets. And not just him, the whole techbro canal that fangirl for him.
afransen
Senior Member
This is what I call the robotaxi hellscape. Congestion is going to get very bad absent any incentives not to have AVs trundling down the street.
afransen
Senior Member
I have a lot of respect for Musk, but fully acknowledge he can be a doofus. Hyperloop is what cemented it for me. He has surprised me, though, so I am inclined to give him more leash than others. I was quite skeptical of the Tesla Bot idea, but I think they are on the right track. It will take the better part of the decade to get a usable product IMO.
crs1026
Senior Member
Actually, I'm thinking the opposite. More vehicles, sure.... but it enables restrictions on delivery truck size within the busiest parts of the city where we are having the worst conflicts between vehicles, bikes, and pedestrians. No more 18-wheelers with outrageous long trailers.
Deliveries could be time-shifted also.
- Paul
afransen
Senior Member
I like the idea of using the technology to justify reducing the size of the design vehicle to maybe a 40 ft articulated trailer from current 53ft. However, there will be an explosion in delivery vehicles even for things like pizzas. Its going to be a problem. How do you incentivize off peak use?
crs1026
Senior Member
For automated vehicles with no human privacy considerations there is an infinite amount of smart telemetry that can be used to determine the amount of use and apply a user fee.
This could include some measurement of vehicle dimensions and application of user fees so that pizzas are delivered by golf cart sized vehicles, as opposed to 18 wheelers, .
And all of this can be time stamped and a time based tariff applied.
- Paul
afransen
Senior Member
I think the point being that tolls will be required to mitigate AV-induced congestion, for commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles alike.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Excuse me for stating what is perhaps obvious, but I've come to believe that we're in the very early days of a decades-long transition away from the car and towards personal electric vehicles.
E-bikes are now outselling electric/hybrid cars in the USA, and the global sales continue to take off. And it's hard to ignore the explosive popularity of electric mobility devices on the streets of Toronto.
It will be a slow transition, but the travel time benefits of electric mobility devices will become increasingly difficult to ignore. In the daytime, for trips within the Old City of Toronto, e-mobility devices are almost always faster than cars or public transit (both of which are prone to congestion and delays). Combine this with the lower cost of ownership, and it's really not hard to see why these things are exploding in popularity.
With this in mind, I think the City of Toronto oughta stop stonewalling, and start embracing these devices. The e-mobility revolution can be a huge blessing for the City of Toronto if we play our cards right.
A large portion of trips within the Old City of Toronto are made by car (I believe in excess of 30 percent). I'd wager a substantial portion of those trips can be moved to e-mobility devices, without compromising travel time performance. This is a great opportunity for the City to reduce the modal share of cars in the old city.
It would be really nice to see some creative thinking from the City on how to embrace e-mobility and Personal Electric Vehicles (PEVs). Further public transit accommodations, and the installation of public charging points, would do a lot to encourage adoption. Of course, this should go hand-in-hand with increasing coverage of protected cycle lanes. And because PEVs tend to be rather small, the City could perhaps better leverage alleyways, ravines and trails as travel corridors for personal mobility devices.
Widespread adoption of PEVs is also our best shot at solving the "last mile" problem, which would make transit an even more attractive option.
E-bikes are now outselling electric/hybrid cars in the USA, and the global sales continue to take off. And it's hard to ignore the explosive popularity of electric mobility devices on the streets of Toronto.
It will be a slow transition, but the travel time benefits of electric mobility devices will become increasingly difficult to ignore. In the daytime, for trips within the Old City of Toronto, e-mobility devices are almost always faster than cars or public transit (both of which are prone to congestion and delays). Combine this with the lower cost of ownership, and it's really not hard to see why these things are exploding in popularity.
With this in mind, I think the City of Toronto oughta stop stonewalling, and start embracing these devices. The e-mobility revolution can be a huge blessing for the City of Toronto if we play our cards right.
A large portion of trips within the Old City of Toronto are made by car (I believe in excess of 30 percent). I'd wager a substantial portion of those trips can be moved to e-mobility devices, without compromising travel time performance. This is a great opportunity for the City to reduce the modal share of cars in the old city.
It would be really nice to see some creative thinking from the City on how to embrace e-mobility and Personal Electric Vehicles (PEVs). Further public transit accommodations, and the installation of public charging points, would do a lot to encourage adoption. Of course, this should go hand-in-hand with increasing coverage of protected cycle lanes. And because PEVs tend to be rather small, the City could perhaps better leverage alleyways, ravines and trails as travel corridors for personal mobility devices.
Widespread adoption of PEVs is also our best shot at solving the "last mile" problem, which would make transit an even more attractive option.
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TheTigerMaster
Superstar
After months of sky-high gas prices, e-scooters cruise to popularity in Toronto
The City is gonna continue to pretend they have the power to ban these things, until the situation on our roads becomes untenable. Sticking their heads in the sand, just like the did during the rise of ridesharing (Uber)
crs1026
Senior Member
I agree - this trend is unstoppable. The fact that these devices make things difficult for bureaucrats is no reason to ban them. The hodgepodge of municipal policies is also wrongheaded.
The ultimate irony - the authorities disapprove because their are "safety concerns", so they'd prefer that people drove their cars instead. No safety concerns there, apparently.
- Paul
lenaitch
Senior Member
The federal government will have a role as well since it is the level where motor vehicle safety standards are established, which covers aspects such a equipment, occupant safety, etc. Some of the really small concept vehicles I have seen images of would likely have difficulty meeting reasonable standards for general production vehicles. The provinces and municipalities get to government roads and vehicle movement and conduct but the feds set the standards for the vehicles themselves. Given the comparative size of our two markets, much of that will likely involve collaboration with the US.
One area I think is emerging is the collision survivability of battery packs. Police forces are currently facing towing companies who are unwilling to tow and store collision damage EVs because of the potential for fire. Many insurance companies are dictating a 15m separation in storage compounds. since most tow companies can't accommodate that, they are simply refusing to tow them.
It is emerging in the southern States after the recent hurricanes that EVs immersed in salt water can have a tendency to randomly burst into flame. Obviously not a problem for aroun dhere, but it highlights the emerging issues with high-energy density electrical systems.
One area I think is emerging is the collision survivability of battery packs. Police forces are currently facing towing companies who are unwilling to tow and store collision damage EVs because of the potential for fire. Many insurance companies are dictating a 15m separation in storage compounds. since most tow companies can't accommodate that, they are simply refusing to tow them.
It is emerging in the southern States after the recent hurricanes that EVs immersed in salt water can have a tendency to randomly burst into flame. Obviously not a problem for aroun dhere, but it highlights the emerging issues with high-energy density electrical systems.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Recent investments in separated cycling lanes paved the way for e-mobility devices to take off. Now those new e-mobility commuters will put more pressure on the city to build separated cycling infrastructure. This will in turn encourage more people to adopt e-mobility and cycling. We're in the earliest stages of a flywheel effect, that'll see e-mobility and cycling becoming increasingly dominant on our streets. This has me very optimistic for Toronto's urban development over the next decade (despite our City Council still being terribly auto-centric).
On top of that, the economic argument is clear: Cars are expensive, they're getting even more expensive by the year. EVs are likely to further drive up costs. Simultaneously, cars become less and less effective as congestion on Toronto streets increases precipitously due to population growth and unprecedented levels of construction.
I think people will be surprised by how suddenly our modal split will shift. Technological shifts often happen slowly, until they happen very quickly.
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