News   Feb 25, 2021
 2K     2 
News   Feb 25, 2021
 1.6K     1 
News   Feb 25, 2021
 905     0 

The Coming Disruption of Transport

kEiThZ

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Jul 31, 2008
Messages
9,970
Reaction score
3,631
The wait-to-charge thing is one of the biggest con’s I envision with the technology. If there are charging stations everywhere, one might be able to keep ahead of consumption while running errands, buying groceries, etc. But if one’s drive is a long one, with few or no stops intended, then whatever time is spent waiting for a charge will be more penalty than opportunity. Charging locations also need to have security.... someone waiting for a charge is a sitting duck for panhandlers (and worse).

You're seeing this through the paradigm of filling gas regularly. But that's not how BEVs will be used. We'll basically have two usage patterns:

1) Residential charger. Charge at home or work. The driver has a place where their car is parked regularly and where it can charge for hours. They will never charge away from this, except for roadtrips.

2) Concurrent charger. With no charging at work or home, they'll have to charge concurrently at regular activities like getting groceries.

Knowing those patterns determines the kind of charger put in place. Home and work chargers are mostly under 10 kW. 15 kW is generally the max for Level 2. For the average commuter that means 1-2 hrs daily or 1-2 nights a week is enough. For those charging at the grocery store, they'll need to get 25-50 kWh once a week, within about 20-40 mins per session. That means a 50-100 kW charger at the grocery stores.

And then there's road trips. Depending on vehicle, travel speed and weather consumption is 250-400W/km. If 2 hrs worth of driving needs to be charged in a 20 min break, that's 150 kW-240 kW chargers. This is what would be needed at service centres. And it's the speed that Tesla and Electrify Canada are building. All of Tesla's V2.0 Superchargers and Electrify Canada are 150 kW. Tesla V3.0 are 250 kW. And Electrify Canada installs one stall at each location that does 350 kW. So we're basically at the point where most stops won't be longer than 20 mins. There's a YouTuber (Bjorn Nyland) who tests out different EV on a 1000 km drive in Norway, with charging along the way. Most are in the 10-12 hr range for such a trip. Only the older EVs whose battery packs have no thermal management take longer (14-16 hrs). I really don't think 12 hrs for a 1000 km trip is unmanageable. And that's getting better with every new generation that comes out.
 

afransen

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 22, 2007
Messages
3,747
Reaction score
2,026
Yeah, I think EVs more or less have the range and charging performance needed to gain mass adoption. We just need to work on price. Tesla seems to be making good progress not just on batteries but also on the end to end manufacturing (simplifying body shop by using large castings, or avoiding paint shop by using stainless steel body panels). As charging infrastructure becomes more robust, I can see most people settling in more at the 400km range vehicle, which makes it viable to use cheap (low nickel/cobalt) battery chemistries.
 

TorPronto

Active Member
Member Bio
Joined
May 25, 2017
Messages
219
Reaction score
199
You're seeing this through the paradigm of filling gas regularly. But that's not how BEVs will be used. We'll basically have two usage patterns:

1) Residential charger. Charge at home or work. The driver has a place where their car is parked regularly and where it can charge for hours. They will never charge away from this, except for roadtrips.

2) Concurrent charger. With no charging at work or home, they'll have to charge concurrently at regular activities like getting groceries.

Knowing those patterns determines the kind of charger put in place. Home and work chargers are mostly under 10 kW. 15 kW is generally the max for Level 2. For the average commuter that means 1-2 hrs daily or 1-2 nights a week is enough. For those charging at the grocery store, they'll need to get 25-50 kWh once a week, within about 20-40 mins per session. That means a 50-100 kW charger at the grocery stores.

And then there's road trips. Depending on vehicle, travel speed and weather consumption is 250-400W/km. If 2 hrs worth of driving needs to be charged in a 20 min break, that's 150 kW-240 kW chargers. This is what would be needed at service centres. And it's the speed that Tesla and Electrify Canada are building. All of Tesla's V2.0 Superchargers and Electrify Canada are 150 kW. Tesla V3.0 are 250 kW. And Electrify Canada installs one stall at each location that does 350 kW. So we're basically at the point where most stops won't be longer than 20 mins. There's a YouTuber (Bjorn Nyland) who tests out different EV on a 1000 km drive in Norway, with charging along the way. Most are in the 10-12 hr range for such a trip. Only the older EVs whose battery packs have no thermal management take longer (14-16 hrs). I really don't think 12 hrs for a 1000 km trip is unmanageable. And that's getting better with every new generation that comes out.
I think it's also a mistake to look at EVs through today's technology. We've already seen that in a few years there will be high end EVs with 1000km+ range. What about in 2035? Potentially, a high end car could have a 2K+ range or more. That's looking 14 years in the future; 14 years ago the first iPhone was released, that's how fast technology can change.

The same goes with charging, it's not great today but the technology keeps moving forward and the time of charge will get better.
 

crs1026

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Oct 16, 2014
Messages
6,690
Reaction score
8,763
^There was an article in the paper this week about Hyundai's latest offering, which will come with a choice of battery capacity. I'm not sure that 1K or greater range is a universal prerequisite. Many buyers might be content with a smaller, cheaper battery option. Especially if quick top-up, even adding a further 100 kms, is widely available.

It's price that needs to come down just a little further.

- Paul
 

TorPronto

Active Member
Member Bio
Joined
May 25, 2017
Messages
219
Reaction score
199
^There was an article in the paper this week about Hyundai's latest offering, which will come with a choice of battery capacity. I'm not sure that 1K or greater range is a universal prerequisite. Many buyers might be content with a smaller, cheaper battery option. Especially if quick top-up, even adding a further 100 kms, is widely available.

It's price that needs to come down just a little further.

- Paul
Agreed (That's why I said high end). I would expect most cars would get 400-600km range.

EV could potentially make car ownership more affordable if batteries make up a a large part of the purchase price. You could buy the 200km range and later upgrade the batteries to 400km when the situation allowed.
 

afransen

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 22, 2007
Messages
3,747
Reaction score
2,026
I think it's also a mistake to look at EVs through today's technology. We've already seen that in a few years there will be high end EVs with 1000km+ range. What about in 2035? Potentially, a high end car could have a 2K+ range or more. That's looking 14 years in the future; 14 years ago the first iPhone was released, that's how fast technology can change.

The same goes with charging, it's not great today but the technology keeps moving forward and the time of charge will get better.
Hmmm, I think 1k km is about the most we'll see. 2k km range is utterly pointless. Apple figured this out, and instead of making phones with 2 day battery life they made them lighter and thinner. Range is just about satisficing. 600-700km range is lots and anything beyond that has next to zero utility.
 

kEiThZ

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Jul 31, 2008
Messages
9,970
Reaction score
3,631
I think it's also a mistake to look at EVs through today's technology. We've already seen that in a few years there will be high end EVs with 1000km+ range. What about in 2035? Potentially, a high end car could have a 2K+ range or more. That's looking 14 years in the future; 14 years ago the first iPhone was released, that's how fast technology can change.

Cost matters though. A 1000 km battery will always be more expensive and less efficient than a 500 km pack. Right now, as batteries are expensive we're seeing range used as a marker of luxury and capability. In reality, most automakers have a threshold in mind. A decade ago Elon Musk said he didn't want to sell anything with less than 200 miles range. Recently he said that he thinks 300 miles is the minimum for an EV. And that is where the market is going. The differentiation will come from load. So the pickup truck makers will target 500 km with a load. The car and CUV builders will target 500 km without any load. Once they hit their range thresholds any benefits in battery tech will go to reducing weight and cost.

The same goes with charging, it's not great today but the technology keeps moving forward and the time of charge will get better.

The technology can improve but the physics of moving electricity doesn't. If there's a limited supply coming into the premises, network design has to decide how to allocate that.
 

afransen

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 22, 2007
Messages
3,747
Reaction score
2,026
The reason Tesla is talking about 200 kWh/1000 km range Roadster is that they need a big battery for very high power output for silly acceleration claims (<2s 0-60 time). The range is just a side benefit.
 

Top