The Coming Disruption of Transport

[afransen]

If congestion becomes an issue, and you don't ban them, then congestion charges would be the other option. London comes to mind.

Except taxis are exempt from the London congestion charge. You could apply it to private hire vehicles if and only if you also apply it to privately owned personal use vehicles.

 

[Johnny Au]

It is much easier to develop automated vehicle technology than it is to convince everyone in a democratic society not to drink and drive.

Impaired driving would be completely eliminated once automated vehicles become commonplace.

 

[afransen]

It is much easier to develop automated vehicle technology than it is to convince everyone in a democratic society not to drink and drive.

Impaired driving would be completely eliminated once automated vehicles become commonplace.

I think more importantly, those with disability or advanced age will get a lot more freedom and better quality of life using robotaxi. Some will still need assistance door to door, but it should help the vast majority, and perhaps convince some people who really should not be driving to stop.

 

[nfitz]

Except taxis are exempt from the London congestion charge. You could apply it to private hire vehicles if and only if you also apply it to privately owned personal use vehicles.

Black cabs are exempt.

Ride share isn't. And if congestion increased because black cabs became automated and everywhere, the extremely minor change of not exempted unstaffed vehicles would happen quickly, and without much notice.

 

[afransen]

Black cabs are exempt.

Ride share isn't. And if congestion increased because black cabs became automated and everywhere, the extremely minor change of not exempted unstaffed vehicles would happen quickly, and without much notice.

The point being that it would apply to ALL vehicles. Trying to surgically apply it to AVs and not to privately owned and operated vehicles is illogical and not going to work.

 

[crs1026]

^it makes no logical sense to allow AV’s to make a bad situation worse, so anyplace that already has congestion issues will need even more restructive policies or user fees to manage the volume of demand.
If only life were fair and rational.... hopefully we don’t see the equivalent of corrupt Eurpoean “blue light privilege” where the right to occupy roads in an AV becomes a form of privilege or economic advantage.

- Paul

 

[afransen]

^it makes no logical sense to allow AV’s to make a bad situation worse, so anyplace that already has congestion issues will need even more restructive policies or user fees to manage the volume of demand.
If only life were fair and rational.... hopefully we don’t see the equivalent of corrupt Eurpoean “blue light privilege” where the right to occupy roads in an AV becomes a form of privilege or economic advantage.

- Paul

You're talking about privileging someone driving their privately owned 7 series over someone who doesn't own a car using an AV to bring home groceries. If congestion charges will apply to AVs (not disagreeing they will) they will also apply to those people with the means to own their own vehicle and operate it for themselves.

 

[crs1026]

You're talking about privileging someone driving their privately owned 7 series over someone who doesn't own a car using an AV to bring home groceries. If congestion charges will apply to AVs (not disagreeing they will) they will also apply to those people with the means to own their own vehicle and operate it for themselves.

Very true. The more popular this technology becomes, and if congestion user fees are imposed and/or increased accordingly, the more of a concern equity becomes, is all I’m saying. Will apply to all use of the scarce road capacity, pool AV or otherwise. May work in opposition to the premise that AV will make transport cheaper and therefore liberating.

- Paul

- Paul

 

[afransen]

Very true. The more popular this technology becomes, and if congestion user fees are imposed and/or increased accordingly, the more of a concern equity becomes, is all I’m saying. Will apply to all use of the scarce road capacity, pool AV or otherwise. May work in opposition to the premise that AV will make transport cheaper and therefore liberating.

- Paul

- Paul

I could imagine congestion charges subsidizing alternative modes. That includes traditional transit where it makes sense, or pooled (multiple distinct rides sharing vehicles) AV, but also things like investing in high quality bicycle infrastructure.

 

[TRONto]

I'm curious as to when gas stations will start to fade away, honestly. Once it's been a few years since electric vehicles have become the majority of vehicles on the road, I wonder if the pumps will start turning into charging stations. If not, are the companies going to just gradually pull back, or will we see an entire chain or two bite the dust?

Shell announced that they will be adding EV charging points to gas stations. I don't remember the number but I think it was 500K internationally.

 

[TRONto]

^Gas stations are only part fuel stops but also part convenience stores, and they are distinct from the corporations who supply the gasoline. The whole charge-overnight EV thing will take away plenty of customers - other than on long drives, there will not be any reason to stop in at all. That in turn hurts the convenience revenue, unless gas station owners find a way to transform into some other retail business. So wider EV use will hurt the individual outlets even if the corporate brand can stay viable.

Converting gas stations to charging stations seems unlikely to me, except as emergency oases charging a premium for electricity. At present, each ICE refuelling represents x cents of profit and gas stations turn over y cars per hour. A EV charging lot of the same size will recharge far fewer cars per hour, so the per car charge price would have to be much larger to generate the same income per hour. Even as charging rates shorten, EV recharging is more likely tied to places where the EV charger is a parking amenity as opposed to a drive-in, drive out "pump island" facility.

- Paul

Planning 500,000 charging points for EVs by 2025, Shell becomes the latest company swept up in EV charging boom | TechCrunch

Shell's plan to roll out 500,000 electric charging stations in just four years is the latest sign of an EV charging infrastructure boom that has prompted

techcrunch.com

Shell is doing it. I do think we'll need less gas stations as the charging points will be everywhere.

I've seen them at Yorkdale, universities, I think IKEA has them. They'll be a lot of competition for EV charging points.

 

[TRONto]

Well, the wait times are not that dramatic. Model 3 can recharge around 150-180 miles of range in 15-20 minutes. A 15-20 min break every 2-3 hours is not unreasonable for a washroom break and to grab a drink or snack. When we get high density of charging stations, you are really just going to cycle from 5% state of charge up to 50 or 60%, which can be recharged very quickly. The last 30-40% is much slower. You can start to cut it very fine on how low you go when there is a supercharger every 10 km or so on a highway.

Regarding panhandlers, I have never heard of that being an issue. The biggest problem is with ICE vehicles deliberately blocking charging stalls by parking in them, or boxing cars in as they are charging.



I don't see people putting their own personal use vehicles in for ridesharing. People are precious about their cars in a way a fleet company would not be. It's an idea that sounds nice in theory, but I don't see people lending their car out during the day while they are at work. What do you do with your carseats? Do you have to wipe your car down and make sure it is immaculate before you let it pick up passengers? You will be held accountable for passenger satisfaction with the ride like an Uber driver today. I think culture and norms change over time. Yes, cars are a convenient mobile locker for your stuff, but is that worth $7k/year?

It'll happen. But I don't think it'll be many people. Just like today people rent out their personal car or use it for Uber. How many are doing it? Not many, but it's happening.

 

[Johnny Au]

Here's a video from RealLifeLore:

It mentions various policies pertaining to electric vehicles.

 

[kEiThZ]

One thing I'm surprised about is that CN bought Lion Electric trucks. From testing, the data shows that the Tesla Semi is the best EV truck on the market and it isn't even close, especially on range.

I'll bet Tesla says their data shows they are the best.

Also, fleet managers aren't fanbois. They don't care about what is "the best". They care about the total cost of ownership. To that end, a less capable vehicle that can do the job is good enough.

Freeways are generally built insulated from population centers, but railways were not

You seriously think that? Are you from Toronto?

 

[kEiThZ]

The wait-to-charge thing is one of the biggest con’s I envision with the technology. If there are charging stations everywhere, one might be able to keep ahead of consumption while running errands, buying groceries, etc. But if one’s drive is a long one, with few or no stops intended, then whatever time is spent waiting for a charge will be more penalty than opportunity. Charging locations also need to have security.... someone waiting for a charge is a sitting duck for panhandlers (and worse).

You're seeing this through the paradigm of filling gas regularly. But that's not how BEVs will be used. We'll basically have two usage patterns:

1) Residential charger. Charge at home or work. The driver has a place where their car is parked regularly and where it can charge for hours. They will never charge away from this, except for roadtrips.

2) Concurrent charger. With no charging at work or home, they'll have to charge concurrently at regular activities like getting groceries.

Knowing those patterns determines the kind of charger put in place. Home and work chargers are mostly under 10 kW. 15 kW is generally the max for Level 2. For the average commuter that means 1-2 hrs daily or 1-2 nights a week is enough. For those charging at the grocery store, they'll need to get 25-50 kWh once a week, within about 20-40 mins per session. That means a 50-100 kW charger at the grocery stores.

And then there's road trips. Depending on vehicle, travel speed and weather consumption is 250-400W/km. If 2 hrs worth of driving needs to be charged in a 20 min break, that's 150 kW-240 kW chargers. This is what would be needed at service centres. And it's the speed that Tesla and Electrify Canada are building. All of Tesla's V2.0 Superchargers and Electrify Canada are 150 kW. Tesla V3.0 are 250 kW. And Electrify Canada installs one stall at each location that does 350 kW. So we're basically at the point where most stops won't be longer than 20 mins. There's a YouTuber (Bjorn Nyland) who tests out different EV on a 1000 km drive in Norway, with charging along the way. Most are in the 10-12 hr range for such a trip. Only the older EVs whose battery packs have no thermal management take longer (14-16 hrs). I really don't think 12 hrs for a 1000 km trip is unmanageable. And that's getting better with every new generation that comes out.