The Coming Disruption of Transport

[2transpo]

By having Metrolinx manage the AV's we subordinate the AEV network to public transit, restraining AEV usage so that it won't hurt our public transit system.

If AEVs are a good thing, why restrain them? We can learn to adapt if public transit is damaged. The thing is that the services provided by AVs will be more beneficial to the public than transit. If passenger rail provides a useful service, it will remain, but if it loses on economics and service, it will and should disappear.

If I was VIA, I would be looking into how intercity AVs will draw away passengers in order to evaluate whether we even need HFR.

 

[MrGoose]

If AEVs are a good thing, why restrain them? We can learn to adapt if public transit is damaged. The thing is that the services provided by AVs will be more beneficial to the public than transit. If passenger rail provides a useful service, it will remain, but if it loses on economics and service, it will and should disappear.

If I was VIA, I would be looking into how intercity AVs will draw away passengers in order to evaluate whether we even need HFR.

AEVs are a very powerful tool. They can be used for good, to solve the last mile problem and allow us to restructure our sprawling cities around transit, walking and cycling. But if used incorrectly, then we could fuck up our cities for another 2 generations at least destroying our urban fabric and paving over millions of acres of prime farmland.

Which is why AEVs need to be regulated and controlled just like nuclear power plants are regulated and controlled.

 

[afransen]

AEVs are a very powerful tool. They can be used for good, to solve the last mile problem and allow us to restructure our sprawling cities around transit, walking and cycling. But if used incorrectly, then we could fuck up our cities for another 2 generations at least destroying our urban fabric and paving over millions of acres of prime farmland.

Which is why AEVs need to be regulated and controlled just like nuclear power plants are regulated and controlled.

We have to solve this with land use planning, charging for road use/congestion, etc. A government transportation monopoly isn't the answer.

 

[MrGoose]

We have to solve this with land use planning, charging for road use/congestion, etc. A government transportation monopoly isn't the answer.

Yes, the solutions you've proposed make sense.

That being said, I think that Metrolinx providing their own AEV shuttles to act as another pillar of our public transit system would probably be the best idea.

 

[afransen]

If Metrolinx wants to offer that service, I would encourage them to fill their boots (assuming it is not requiring public subsidy). But let others play in this market too.

 

[crs1026]

The easiest way to ruin the AV rollout would be to put a big, monolithic, bureaucracy in charge and run it as a monopoly hiding behind ministerial privilege.

One might need a market regulator/operator, and an integrated fare/trip planner might be desirable.
There can be endless options, different models of true vehicle/fleet sharing versus hailed service. Anyone should be able to place a vehicle in the pool, either offered for hire on the spot or in an assigned or chartered or pre-ordered format. Or, own your own vehicle. Hopefully “plans” and pricing is simpler and easier to understand/compare than cellphone plans.... and more customer choice.

Road tolls and user charges are probably necessary to manage congestion and time of use, but pretty easy to manage given the degree of electronic intelligence in the vehicles.

- Paul

 

[rbt]

Road tolls and user charges are probably necessary to manage congestion and time of use, but pretty easy to manage given the degree of electronic intelligence in the vehicles.

Incredibly easy to implement legally as well since these vehicles will be operating under a new class of drivers license which is not going to be transferrable (Ontario won't honour a Florida AV license).

Just make it law that Drivers License AV pays 5 cents per km and requires a submission of mileage on a quarterly basis. Since the manufacturer obtains the license, and will be required to maintain the vehicle (sensor failure may be fatal), it's also up to them to collect and submit fees.

 

[afransen]

Incredibly easy to implement legally as well since these vehicles will be operating under a new class of drivers license which is not going to be transferrable (Ontario won't honour a Florida AV license).

Just make it law that Drivers License AV pays 5 cents per km and require submissions of mileage on a quarterly basis. Since the manufacturer obtains the license, and will be required to maintain the vehicle (sensor failure may be fatal), it's also up to them to collect and submit fees.

Yep, though I expect it will eventually need to be Time of Use or even road-specific.

 

[lenaitch]

Why would somebody sitting in an AV need a driver's licence? They are passengers.

 

[afransen]

Why would somebody sitting in an AV need a driver's licence? They are passengers.

The actual AI 'driver' has a driver's license.

 

[2transpo]

Which is why AEVs need to be regulated and controlled just like nuclear power plants are regulated and controlled.

This will be unpopular and politically impossible. AVs are going to be a trillion dollar market and people are going to want to use them as much as possible. No government is going to have the political will to tell the powerful tech lobbies and citizen customers that their brilliant new tech is restricted. It was the same thing with the introduction of the automobile.

In this case, the "damage" that they cause will be more than offset by the advantages and that is why the av dominated, transit and rail diminished future is just the future we will have to accept. It is why I am trying to get as many pictures of everything I can before it is too late. Busses, LRVs, streetcars and trains. It will be something to tell our children and grandchildren about. Not to say that they will disappear entirely, just that they ill be greatly diminished from their current state.

 

[lenaitch]

The actual AI 'driver' has a driver's license.

Why? Does that not bely the concept of 'autonomous'? I get that some jurisdictions might currently have some form of provisional d/l because the concept is under development, but many definitions I have seen about full autonomy, don't even speak of drivers controls being fitted. Otherwise, the stated future of sitting there reading, sleeping, working, etc. while zipping along don't apply. On-demand ride-sharing with somebody designated as the 'driver' is basically a rental Uber.

I imagine the manufacturers and suppliers will lobby for a 'designated driver' with controls because it relieves them of a lot of the liability.

 

[crs1026]

Why? Does that not bely the concept of 'autonomous'? I get that some jurisdictions might currently have some form of provisional d/l because the concept is under development, but many definitions I have seen about full autonomy, don't even speak of drivers controls being fitted. Otherwise, the stated future of sitting there reading, sleeping, working, etc. while zipping along don't apply. On-demand ride-sharing with somebody designated as the 'driver' is basically a rental Uber.

I imagine the manufacturers and suppliers will lobby for a 'designated driver' with controls because it relieves them of a lot of the liability.

I can’t imagine the vehicles not having some sort of manual control, if for no other purpose than to hostle them around during servicing and new-vehicle delivery.
But as to the circumstances under which a passenger has to override the automation and take command....it may happen if the vehicle is somehow blocked or boxed in, perhaps by an “in emergency break glass” function, or perhaps by remote control with some sort of tech support coaching a user through a very slow speed recovery manouver........but as you note, if that override is needed on a sudden and emergent basis, the whole concept fails. So licensing ceases to apply.

Having said that, drivers’ licenses are a revenue tool today. I’m sure the provinces will find a way of shifting that revenue collection to registration fees for owners of AV’s, or to the road tolls.

- Paul

 

[afransen]

Why? Does that not bely the concept of 'autonomous'? I get that some jurisdictions might currently have some form of provisional d/l because the concept is under development, but many definitions I have seen about full autonomy, don't even speak of drivers controls being fitted. Otherwise, the stated future of sitting there reading, sleeping, working, etc. while zipping along don't apply. On-demand ride-sharing with somebody designated as the 'driver' is basically a rental Uber.

I imagine the manufacturers and suppliers will lobby for a 'designated driver' with controls because it relieves them of a lot of the liability.

Think of it as the government giving a company permission to deploy their AI driver. The human passenger is not accountable.

The 'car' has the license, not the human.

 

[afransen]

I can’t imagine the vehicles not having some sort of manual control, if for no other purpose than to hostle them around during servicing and new-vehicle delivery.
But as to the circumstances under which a passenger has to override the automation and take command....it may happen if the vehicle is somehow blocked or boxed in, perhaps by an “in emergency break glass” function, or perhaps by remote control with some sort of tech support coaching a user through a very slow speed recovery manouver........but as you note, if that override is needed on a sudden and emergent basis, the whole concept fails. So licensing ceases to apply.

Having said that, drivers’ licenses are a revenue tool today. I’m sure the provinces will find a way of shifting that revenue collection to registration fees for owners of AV’s, or to the road tolls.

- Paul

No way is a passenger operating the vehicle. It will either have remote intervention by an employee in a monitoring centre, or the doors open and the passenger exits and the company recovers the vehicle. I mean, this is as absurd as Translink calling a passenger in a Skytrain and walking them through manually operating the vehicle.