kEiThZ
Superstar
In any scenario of high electrification and autonomy, you could in theory move beyond trains. Each railcar becomes an autonomous, dispatchable vehicle.
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The Coming Disruption of Transport
- Thread starter kEiThZ
- Start date
lenaitch
Senior Member
While, admittedly, a large volume of the ends products produced from petroleum goes to fuels, I think the demise, or rate of demise, of the petrochemical industry is over-stated by many. Take a look around your house.
2transpo
New Member
Same thing the TuSimple, CN, Union Pacific, Schneider National, UPS and others are smoking. TuSimple will have fully autonomous trucks on the highways by 2024-2025. That is their goal, and that is what their investors paid to receive. That is also what CN CEO JJ Ruest joined TuSimple to achieve.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Having autonomous trucks on the road and "wide deployment" are two very different things.
2transpo
New Member
How long do you suggest it will take for the industry to completely transition to autonomous trucks? The economics of autonomous trucking are too good, meaning human driven trucks will not endure for more than a short period of time. At the same time, most small trucking companies will go bankrupt because they won't be able to afford the more expensive av trucks, leaving only large carriers behind.
I envision that by new years day 2030, human driven trucks will be mostly a memory. Our rail network will be about 1/3 of its current size and in some parts of the country, especially in southern Ontario, rail will functionally cease to exist as a means of moving freight.
lenaitch
Senior Member
In Ontario, it would take that long or likely longer just to develop the regulatory framework to allow them to operate.
kEiThZ
Superstar
At least a decade. Probably two.
Companies will only start replacing drivers after the regulatory framework is in place. And that's assuming the tech is up to speed, to even begin the discussion on replacing drivers.
I say all this as a genuine enthusiast about the tech, an early investor in Tesla, a working aerospace engineer, and someone with a small knob of knowledge from the graduate level controls classes I've taken. The Musk fandom has driven some extremely unrealistic appreciation of the timeframes involved in developing tech, certifying it and then fielding it.
Boy are you in for a surprise.
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afransen
Senior Member
Short haul is probably more difficult, as you tend to need a driver to interact with the shipper and receiver. This can probably be phased out over time, but will require re-engineering business processes and automating communication. Still a lot of physical paper documents and physical door seals.
2transpo
New Member
It isn't the Musk fandom. It is Elon Musk himself. Elon was one of the first people to reveal that autonomous trucking was cheaper than rail back when he unveiled the Tesla Semi in 2017.
Elon Musk is also one of the people at the forefront of the autonomous vehicles revolution as Tesla is currently the global leader in AV development. He seems very confident that level 4/5 AVs will be in service before 2025 and with the process large scale adoption underway at that time. It may take time to reach full adoption but you can be certain that economic forces will push for their adoption as quickly as possible. Their is lots of money to be made operating AVs, and their is a lot of money to be saved by consumers of services provided by AVs.
Think of the political pressure too. Not only from trucking lobbyists and manufacturers, but citizens. The residents of Milton would love to see AV trucking brought into service ASAP. The biggest benefit to them would be that rail intermodal would take critical blow, which means that they wouldn't have to contend with a disruptive and life-altering terminal in their backyards. I live near a rail line, and I would love to see AV trucks adopted in order to quiet the rails down, or allow them to be closed altogether and replaced with a recreational trail. Trucking in this scenario would be less disruptive as it is contained to its own RoW, the freeways, which are not near where people live. Rail lines on the otherhand, usually cut through neighbourhoods, reducing quality of life for residents. Now this may not be a good thing with human drivers in the current paradigm due to accidents, but when AVs bring accidents down to near zero, and traffic is reduced substantially, it isn't a bad thing to move more traffic on our highways, not least when road vehicles are electrified.
afransen
Senior Member
Well, if you think the 401 is a zoo now with all the truck traffic, hold onto your hat. I guess we can only hope there is a dedicated AV truck lane.... I'm not convinced that AV/EV trucks being cost competitive with rail is a good thing or a market failure. It might be a symptom of underpricing roads, and will necessitate tolling.
kEiThZ
Superstar
All I gotta say is if you're this confident in Elon's timeline, take out a second mortgage on your house and buy puts on CN stock. You'll be a millionaire when Elon is definitely proven right.
A guy who has a major stake in an auto company would never, ever exaggerate the capabilities of those cars or the timeline in which he can deliver them right?
Nobody cares what the people of Milton think. Except for their local politicians. The federal government will decide this. Mostly based on safety.
crs1026
Superstar
The engineers’ work may be almost done, but the lawyers’s work is only starting.
Buying a self driving truck, and insuring it, are two different things.
- Paul
crs1026
Superstar
I’m really interested in how a congested road full of self-driving trucks will behave. What spacing between vehicles will be maintained? When will they attempt to pass a slower moving vehicle? What happens when an auto in the left lane needs to merge into the truck stream to reach an off ramp?
I have a theory that a self driving traffic jam will congeal much more quickly than a human-piloted one.
- Paul
lenaitch
Senior Member
I'm starting to see at least a partial basis of the argument.
In an urban area, I imagine just as many people are jammed up again rail lines as a freeways. In 'new growth' areas such as the regions, rail lines and freeways didn't cut through neighbourshoods - the neighbourhoods were allowed to be built up against them.
Let's take all that is hauled on a train operating on one ROW and stick it on individual conveyances and plop it on another ROW, so long as it isn't near me.
As far as the last mile or short haul argument, if I order a houseful of furniture or appliances (or a small business owner receives a shipment) by AV delivery, I suppose I'll be unloading it myself.
No doubt the tech is improving, but if any of the 'driver assist' on my truck are any indication, when the road is covered in snow, I'm on my own because non of it works (I have most of it turned off anyway).
crs1026
Superstar
In the extreme - we have this thing in Western Canada called the Rocky Mountains. And the National Parks.
Take all the traffic hauled by rail, switch it onto automated road vehicles, and plunk all that traffic on the Trans Canada Highway. Through the National Parks.
Ain't gonna happen, for either bulk commodities or containers.
This is my congestion question. (My car's tech works most of the time, although redesign of the camera ports is needed, because a dirty/fogged/snowy windshield is the most frequent cause for shutdowns) but.... the adaptive cruise control slows my vehicle every time a car enters the lane ahead of me. Which simply tends to frustrate the driver behind me, who then impulsively changes lanes. Or flashes their lights, blows horn, etc.
An automated system would likely just patiently slow down the vehicle behind me, and it in turn would would pass the slowing rearwards until everybody is properly spaced. And then, the whole line would gradually accelerate back up to road speed. It's a simple wave motion thing.
If you analyse how highway behaviour works today, human drivers mitigate this kind of congestion transient by temporarily accepting risk, mostly by short spurts of following too closely, but sometimes by cutting in to a tight space, and sometimes by changing lanes abruptly. Drivers who see a vehicle about to merge at an on-ramp may politely change lanes to create a space for the merge. AV tech probably makes decisions more consistently, and possibly faster, but the very patience of AV technology will put vehicles in orderly, neat, properly spaced lines....that will lower throughput even by today's standards.
Stealing away rail traffic and putting it on busy highways will just add to congestion, and slow highways in so many places. It won't be politically acceptable, even if cost or pricing argues for it.
- Paul