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The best thing about a fall election...

There have been plenty of Conservative scandals in their short minority government running up against 3 years now.

I was specifically referring to Quebec. If you travel to Quebec often, you know exactly what I mean. The Libs were rather arrogant there, they simply assumed they would and should win. That's what led to the scandals....and keep in mind, many of those were in Quebec and involved Quebecers. Ordinary voters in that province saw it as a real stain on their reputation caused by the Liberals.
 
Barring a campaign catastrophe, recent polling indicates a Harper majority government. As much as the opposition and media portray Harper as the "bogeyman", it has'nt got much traction with most ordinary voters.

Poll predicts strong Tory majority
Posted: September 08, 2008, 8:13 AM by Jeremy Barker
Politics, Canadian Election

OTTAWA -- A poll released Monday predicted for the first time that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper would be able to transform his minority government into a strong majority in the Oct. 14 election.

The Segma poll taken for La Presse newspaper put support for the Conservatives at 43%, translating into 183 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons. It predicted the main opposition Liberals would get 25% of the vote, with just 62 seats.

The poll surveyed 1,288 Canadians from Aug. 30-Sept. 6. Such a sample size carries a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

© Thomson Reuters 2008
 
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense: if we're lucky enough to get another minority government and allow the Liberals to choose a new leader, I think that that leader should be Dalton McGuinty.

McGuinty should run as the federal Liberal leader. He's proven himself to be a solid Premier. I think he would stand an excellent chance of defeating Harper's Conservatives.
 
Mcgunity would easily take 80 seats in Ontario if not more...


That would allow him to win a minority gov easily.


Actually if Mcgunity went against Harper, I would imagine it being a very well fought election.
 
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense: if we're lucky enough to get another minority government and allow the Liberals to choose a new leader, I think that that leader should be Dalton McGuinty.

McGuinty should run as the federal Liberal leader. He's proven himself to be a solid Premier. I think he would stand an excellent chance of defeating Harper's Conservatives.

I wonder how his French is. It's been a long time since we had a PM from Ontario. And his centrist credentials would easily win over Canada. Best part of it all....he carries none of the divisive Chretien/Martin baggage lingering in the background of the LPC.
 
Premiers haven't had a good record of success when stepping up to the federal level in Canada. And McGuinty in particular would be a lightning rod in parts of Canada outside Ontario. For several yers now he has been loud in his opinion that Ontario hasn't been getting its fair share. Rightly or wrongly, that would be played back at him if he went federal. I would predict little support for him west of Ontario, and quite likely in parts of the Atlantic region.

-----

The polls are being amazingly kind to Harper all of a sudden. But I don't see any real, structural reason why this would be so. What has actually changed over the past two weeks? I predict things will revert back to more of a close race, almost tied, as the campaign goes on.
 
The polls are being amazingly kind to Harper all of a sudden. But I don't see any real, structural reason why this would be so. What has actually changed over the past two weeks? I predict things will revert back to more of a close race, almost tied, as the campaign goes on.

Because, he hasn't worked out to be as 'scary' as his critics threatened he would turn out to be. They have governed fairly competently and avoided the limelight. Sure they had their mistakes, but then again, find an administration that doesn't. Most importantly they have delivered on highly visible promises like the GST cut.

My prediction for the Conservative ace in the hole......income splitting. The Liberals can complain about how that's bad for women, but show the average family how much they'll save and tell them they only have to file one return, and the Conservatives will have their majority.....just wait for that announcement.
 
I don't know if it's already been said before in this thread, but my main beef with Harper is the threat he is posing to democracy in this country. In no other time in history has the government message bordered so closely to propaganda - ministers and MPs are barred from speaking to media (and, in fact, run away from them), they hand pick which members of the media can attend press conferences, plant questions from reporters, and even for this election, they've built their own media centre (that media outlets cannot hook their own equipment up to), all with the hope to 'control the message'. Civil servants are afraid to do or say anything that can potentially embarass the party in power as it may cost them their jobs (i.e. CNSC Chalk River fiasco). They put up endless roadblocks to committees and ship their ministers away when they are supposed to be testifying at inquiries. Power is so grossly concentrated now in the Prime Minister's Office that it seems the party is only there for show and it, in fact, is a dictator state. Simply look at how none of the Conservative campaign is actually talking about the party, it is talking only at Harper. In Canada, we elect parties, not prime ministers.

It is disheartening that Dion is focusing so much on the Green Shift (although it is a logical policy, albeit with some problems). He should be focusing on how the Conservatives have basically gone against everything they campaigned on in 2006 - accountability, transparency, and ethics.. and may win simply because they followed through on their five promises that arguably have been worse off for the country (i.e. GST cut). That is what Dion could have won on, but sadly, that might not happen.
 
I don't know if it's already been said before in this thread, but my main beef with Harper is the threat he is posing to democracy in this country. In no other time in history has the government message bordered so closely to propaganda - ministers and MPs are barred from speaking to media (and, in fact, run away from them), they hand pick which members of the media can attend press conferences, plant questions from reporters, and even for this election, they've built their own media centre (that media outlets cannot hook their own equipment up to), all with the hope to 'control the message'. Civil servants are afraid to do or say anything that can potentially embarass the party in power as it may cost them their jobs (i.e. CNSC Chalk River fiasco). They put up endless roadblocks to committees and ship their ministers away when they are supposed to be testifying at inquiries. Power is so grossly concentrated now in the Prime Minister's Office that it seems the party is only there for show and it, in fact, is a dictator state. Simply look at how none of the Conservative campaign is actually talking about the party, it is talking only at Harper. In Canada, we elect parties, not prime ministers.

It is disheartening that Dion is focusing so much on the Green Shift (although it is a logical policy, albeit with some problems). He should be focusing on how the Conservatives have basically gone against everything they campaigned on in 2006 - accountability, transparency, and ethics.. and may win simply because they followed through on their five promises that arguably have been worse off for the country (i.e. GST cut). That is what Dion could have won on, but sadly, that might not happen.

Excellent points. Sadly for the Liberals, its probably still too soon to talk about Conservative behaviour when many of their sitting MPs are still leftover from the Liberal era of scandals....those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. And the Conservatives seem to be taking a high road at this point in the campaign. Attacking their ideas, is a far better strategy than negative campaigning right now.
 
Barring a campaign catastrophe, recent polling indicates a Harper majority government. As much as the opposition and media portray Harper as the "bogeyman", it has'nt got much traction with most ordinary voters.

Poll predicts strong Tory majority
Posted: September 08, 2008, 8:13 AM by Jeremy Barker
Politics, Canadian Election

OTTAWA -- A poll released Monday predicted for the first time that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper would be able to transform his minority government into a strong majority in the Oct. 14 election.

The Segma poll taken for La Presse newspaper put support for the Conservatives at 43%, translating into 183 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons. It predicted the main opposition Liberals would get 25% of the vote, with just 62 seats.

The poll surveyed 1,288 Canadians from Aug. 30-Sept. 6. Such a sample size carries a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

© Thomson Reuters 2008

That's probably not something Harper wants, at this point. Being in a position to take a majority government will bleed the NDP and Green (and perhaps Bloc) back toward the Liberals. This will be an interesting campaign.

Because, he hasn't worked out to be as 'scary' as his critics threatened he would turn out to be. They have governed fairly competently and avoided the limelight. Sure they had their mistakes, but then again, find an administration that doesn't. Most importantly they have delivered on highly visible promises like the GST cut.

My prediction for the Conservative ace in the hole......income splitting. The Liberals can complain about how that's bad for women, but show the average family how much they'll save and tell them they only have to file one return, and the Conservatives will have their majority.....just wait for that announcement.

Keith: there's no money left in the kitty for that kind of promise. That will be the chink in the armour of that idea. I'm not particularly opposed to that idea, but if that's the case I'd suggest a tax credit for singles, as there are economies of scale for couples that would be unfair to penalize individuals for. I have no problem taxing DINKs.

Secondly, you don't actually provide a reasonable explanation of what has changed in the last few weeks to explain any sudden conservative upswing. Maybe it's just the result of the absurd amount of pre-writ advertising by the Conservatives. Yay sticking to the letter while flouting the spirit.
 
Keith: there's no money left in the kitty for that kind of promise. That will be the chink in the armour of that idea. I'm not particularly opposed to that idea, but if that's the case I'd suggest a tax credit for singles, as there are economies of scale for couples that would be unfair to penalize individuals for. I have no problem taxing DINKs.

Secondly, you don't actually provide a reasonable explanation of what has changed in the last few weeks to explain any sudden conservative upswing. Maybe it's just the result of the absurd amount of pre-writ advertising by the Conservatives. Yay sticking to the letter while flouting the spirit.

1) Just throwing out the idea of what might be a major policy platform. I do wonder how much that would cost to implement. And what would have to be cut to buy that promise. If you look at it from a really conservative perspective, why not cut Child tax benefits, kids in sports credits, etc. and just put all that money into just giving more money back to the parents to begin with. Of course, that would really screw over the single parents....but that's always kit and caboodle for the family values crowd. There are other ways to pay for it.....defer a corporate tax cut, for example....or the Liberal path to doing it could be, raise GST, bring in income splitting......

2) What I meant to convey was that the Conservatives have governed better than most Canadians expected them to. In those kinds of scenarios the incumbents tend to have the odds in their favour.
 

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