lead82
Senior Member
I am really surprised that people here aren't politically savvy sometimes. The PCs of the 90s crapped on transit because there was really no electoral gains to be made supporting transit. These days? That's not the case. The PCs lost seats in Ottawa when Hudak refused to commit to Phase II and that interview went viral enough to sink their candidates there. They had candidates trying to backpedal from what their leader said.
They've learned their lesson. And they won't make that mistake again.
That doesn't mean they'll support all transit. They'll support transit with a political payoff. And since downtown Toronto will vote PC when hell freezes over, I think the DRL is toast. I think Sheppard gets an extension to Agincourt. GO RER goes ahead with prioritization for lines that can be finished quickly or have easy electoral payoff. Electrification is probably toast. High capital spending for operational costs savings that materialize well after they are out of power. I have a feeling the Hurontario LRT is at risk. There really won't be substantial shovels in the ground. Ditto Hamilton. Wherever, support for LRT isn't very solid or deep, there's an opportunity to cancel it. Hamilton and Peel Region aren't as vehement about their LRT plans as Ottawa was.
Back on Sheppard. The Tories aren't stupid. They know that building the subway to STC would be super expensive. And not achieve much. But with GO RER on the way, Agincourt is a perfect target. I could even see a push to go Westward to get to Downsview. Would help them pick up some seats in North York in subsequent elections.
I don't know that PC's will really care about Sheppard that much. They will likely get Scarborough, but there are many more votes in 905 than 416. Sheppard subway is no one's priority as its ridership is low and everyone knows it was a mistake to build. Extending it may make it slightly more useful but those are billions of dollars in new money to spend and timeline will be long. If PC's win, my bet goes to funding Yonge extension to Richmond Hill. EA is done, designs under way. All that's missing is a full funding promise. I bet you Liberals will propose to fund DRL+Yonge north in 2018 platform. PC's would fund Yonge at expense of Toronto's RL.
The big question is how to fund it. If anyone cancel's Hamilton or Peel LRT, to pay for transit in York/Toronto, that would be a vote loser. Mississauga is very pro LRT, so cancelling it would lose votes. Hamilton's may be cancelled as it has weak support. Hopefully Finch seems construction starting so that it is beyond point of cancellation.
What I can see happening is cancelling Eglinton West/East extensions to fund Yonge North with help of Feds. If RL doesn't get funded though Toronto may find itself with more subways but less reliability. Today is a perfect example - Bloor/Yonge closed essentially paralyzed the entire subway system and make it useless to get downtown or anywhere.
My hope is that RL gets funded in next round of funding as it is critical. All else can fall by alter but of those city projects still to be funded, RL+Yonge North are surest bets. Besides a few councillors in North York, no one is really clamouring for Sheppard extensions.