I recall we had high hopes that Ukraine would move on Kherson or Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in 2023, but as explained below, that was a non-starter as well.
The analysis is a bit superficial, but alludes to key point of the failure: you can't have an operational breakthrough on the battlefield using NATO's combined arms warfare doctrine if you don't have NATO's combined arms. And that goes towards all 3 key points: good training, overwhelming firepower, and air supremacy (or in Ukraine's case - zero air force assets to deploy).
I would challenge the article on its spin and framing. They pin all the failures squarely on Ukrainian command shoulders:
...wishful thinking of the Ukrainian government...
...Ukraine’s military planners forgot to keep in consideration...
...Ukrainian troops were unable to execute....
... lack of adequate training, as the units were trained in haste in a matter of months...
I would argue, Ukrainian command and UAF in general are not the only ones to blame. I would go as far as saying that they are the least to blame for the 2023 offensive failure. There is plenty of blame to go around.
And as far as Ukrainians not being able to train to NATO's standards, I find that argument "rich" for a lack of a better non-swear word, considering this was the quality of training they were provided with by NATO:
This will also doom the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ — in part because these forces were trained to wage the Cold War, and Russia has evolved
responsiblestatecraft.org
This quote best illustrates the quality of training NATO provided to Ukraine. When Ukrainians asked about how the tank crews should deal with minefields:
German instructors told incredulous Ukrainian soldiers, “
just drive around the minefields.”
Reminds me of the good ol' argument of "if you don't want to be homeless, just buy a house"
NATO's doctrinal training was out of place, out of time, and out of touch with the realities UAF faced on the battlefield.
And then there is the whole lack of air supremacy side of things. Makes my blood boil that both EU and US politicians refused to even consider giving Ukraine airplanes until after the 2023 failed counteroffensive.
"NATO planes are too complex for Ukrainian simpletons to understand" they said
"It will take too long to train the simpleton Ukrainian pilots" they said
"Think of the Russian red lines!! Will anyone PLEASE think of the poor Russians' red lines???!!!" they screamed
A year and a half after the failed 2023 counteroffensive, Ukrainian pilots were flying F-16s on combat sorties. They could have been flying those sorties
during the 2023 counteroffensive have the Western governments had the balls to start arming Ukraine properly back in February of 2022 when Russia invaded.
"
