http://www.torontosun.com/2013/04/05/rob-fords-popularity-on-the-rise-poll
It's fascinating how the Sun and Ford have managed to spin his fumbles into percieved attacks by the left.
Though re the smoke and mirrors of these either positive or on-the-rise or not-in-the-basement polls for Ford, in the aftermath of Doug Ford stating his Queens Park-ian intentions, may I offer a little food for thought--as of yet, going on a quarter of a decade since Ford became Mayor, the apparent/alleged popularity of Ford Nation has
not been truly put to the affirmative test "where it counts", i.e. at the ballot box, with an actual campaign (and countered by an actual opposition campaign) behind it.
Sure, one can point to the federal election and the Conservative breakthrough in the 416--but it can be argued that that was due largely to factors outside of Ford (especially given that Ford's supposed own Etobicoke North stayed Liberal, and his Etobicoke Centre home riding only went Con by a disputed recount). And a few months later, the Tories were provincially shut out again in the 416--something which was more popularly attributed to Ford-ian blundering; though even that's far from clear. Aside from that, there've been *no* elections or byelections where Ford-ism has been an open, palpable positive factor--or much of a factor at all. With such things as a mayoral byelection aborted or a Augimeri-Cusimano rematch aborted, all we've seen so far is smoke-and-mirrors bluster piggybacking off polling hypotheticals.
My feeling remains: behind the bluster, things aren't as robust as they may appear.
And in which case: if a provincial election comes sooner rather than later, watch Doug Ford; because unless we're looking at a Hudak landslide, Etobicoke North is no Tory drop-in-the-bucket, not at all. Heck, except at the south edge, it isn't even his father's successor riding; and even less so after the latest redistribution which took away the "Weston Wood panhandle" and placed it completely north of Dixon/401 (though the municipal Ward 2 boundaries still reflect the old disposition). And, again--it didn't even go *federally* Tory in 2011, and the provincial PCs later that year were basically jostling w/the NDP for a distant under-quarter-of-the-vote second. (And while it did go provincially Tory in the Harris years, it was never w/over 40%.)
Etobicoke North, in short, is
not, given past record, what an epicentre of provincial PC fortunes in the 416 is made of--yet the way how Team Ford's framing it, it's the be-all and end-all, Ground Zero, etc etc. And yeah--sure, just maybe, after all, they laughed at Catherine Fife's chances in Kitchener-Waterloo where the NDP was a distand third fed-prov in 2011--though that was a byelection, that was different (as were the strategically-skewed circumstances behind the 2011 distant-thirds). But here's a bit of a sobering reminder: as a PC standard-bearer in Etobicoke North, Doug Ford could conceivably come in *third*. (Well, maybe not, since it's Doug Ford w/the Kouvalis magic behind him. But if it were a more generic Tory running, third place'd be
absolutely on radar here.)
