What Royson's article fails to take into account:
- Ford is no longer an unknown. Regardless of the available information on Ford, a lot of people didn't bother to read up on the candidates. Many Ford voters that I know tell me they wouldnt vote for him again. By the next election, he'll have had 4 years of bad front page press.
- It (likely) won't be a split race. Smitherman and Pants split the left vote after Giambrone's sudden departure left David Miller's election machine scrambling to remake the campaign around a man they didn't think could win while a large part of the former Mayor's backers defected to Smitherman who they thought could win.
- Ford was fighting against the establishment. In 2014, Ford will be the establishment. He'll own the last 4 years.
- While the 2010 election had the right revved up to vote in a conservative, the 2014 will have the center/left revved to kick what many see as the worst Mayor ever from office -- even many conservatives who see Ford as ruining the brand. A lot of those downtowners who skipped the last election would fall over eachother to cast their ballots right now if they could. I predict turn out will be much larger next election.
- Ford may not even be able to run. The result of the conflict of interest court case against him may not result in the harsh punishment of removal from office, but I think the case is so clear that at minimum the judge will impose a restriction from running for office after his term is up.