Rob Ford's Toronto

[Peepers]

This exactly. Ford may have the incumbency advantage and he may still be popular with his base, but he has no financing and no campaign organization. This combination will either lead to him breaking complex electoral rules multiple times before election day (i.e. donating to himself) becoming disqualified or being outspent to the point where he can't get his message out or at the very least appears to be a second tier candidate, conceding the race to the two big campaign spenders.

I don't think financing is a problem for Ford. For example there is no limit on the amount that he could contribute to his own campaign as long as the money comes from his personal bank account and not the Deco Label account (that is how he got in trouble last time - Deco money was deemed a corporate contribution).

In the last election most of Ford's contributions were in small amounts from grass-root supporters and these people are still around as witnessed by the latest Ford-Fest where they turned out in the 10,000's to get their picture taken with Mayor Ford. Another Ford-Fest is planned for next month in Etobicoke where an even bigger turnout of 30,000 is expected!

Money is not going to be a problem for Ford when you consider that most campaign funds go towards advertising and as the most famous politician in Canada - Rob Ford doesn't have to spend a dime to get publicity. Rob Ford just steps outside of his house in the morning and he is surrounded by a phalanx of reporters all eager to get a sound-bite from him.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

\Nevertheless, and since we're talking bets here, I'd wager that between now and the election, one of the following is going to take him down:

• The video leaks
• The video is shown in court
• Ford is charged with obstruction of justice and is either convicted (disqualified from running for public office) or awaiting trial during the election with that cloud hanging over him
• Ford is linked to Project Traveller
• If Ford is indeed addicted to substance abuse, he will not last 1 year sober. The Danforth drunkenness scene demonstrates clearly that he's a loose canon and it's only a matter of time before the next episode hits - and people have their cameras ready.
• Another unforseen scandal
• One or more candidates or a debate moderator is finally able to lift the curtain on Ford. Ford is going to be brutally cross examined and we all know how he performs under pressure (see Conflict of Interest trial).
• Rob Ford 1969-2014

Ford isn't exactly healthy, but I'd say he has at the very least five years to go before something mortal happens.

 

[animatronic]

- but he has no financing and no campaign organization
- breaking complex electoral rules multiple times before election day (i.e. donating to himself) becoming disqualified or being outspent
- at the very least appears to be a second tier candidate
- new official Conservative flag bearer to steal his message while Ford appears to be missing in action or avoiding the campaign or running away
- I can scarcely find anybody who will admit to voting for him. Where did all those people go?
- Unless there's a massive vote split with 3 or more anti-Ford candidates Ford won't be able to gather more than 30%, specially if a viable Conservative is in the final 2 or 3
- If theres a star candidate like Olivia Chow, I'm very confident that Ford is going to receive a very satisfying to watch beating of a lifetime.
- Another unforseen scandal
- One or more candidates or a debate moderator is finally able to lift the curtain on Ford.

I feel your pain, but these are all variants of arguments advanced in 2010 from those who said he wouldn't win a first term.

Ford is going to be brutally cross examined and we all know how he performs under pressure (see Conflict of Interest trial).

That would require Tom Cruise squeezing himself back into a naval lawyer's uniform, which is unlikely to happen.

 

[W. K. Lis]

I don't think financing is a problem for Ford. For example there is no limit on the amount that he could contribute to his own campaign as long as the money comes from his personal bank account and not the Deco Label account (that is how he got in trouble last time - Deco money was deemed a corporate contribution).

In the last election most of Ford's contributions were in small amounts from grass-root supporters and these people are still around as witnessed by the latest Ford-Fest where they turned out in the 10,000's to get their picture taken with Mayor Ford. Another Ford-Fest is planned for next month in Etobicoke where an even bigger turnout of 30,000 is expected!

Money is not going to be a problem for Ford when you consider that most campaign funds go towards advertising and as the most famous politician in Canada - Rob Ford doesn't have to spend a dime to get publicity. Rob Ford just steps outside of his house in the morning and he is surrounded by a phalanx of reporters all eager to get a sound-bite from him.

Don't forget that Rob will be "paid" for writing his signature on Deco documents. That activity should be worth a few hundred thousand each time.

 

[Silence&Motion]

I agree with the comment that Ford won't have a problem with money. However I'm still predicting he won't win a second term. Not really for any of the reasons MetroMan mentioned. Just because of the numbers. Ford has had a negative approval rating for almost his entire tenure. People like to talk about the core 30% that won't leave him, but the other side of that equation are the 55% who have consistently disapproved of him. To me, that means that many more things need to fall into place for Ford to win re-election than for him to be defeated (vote splitting on the left, but not on the right, etc). I'm not saying that they won't all fall into place and he can't win re-election. I'm just saying that I think it's more likely that things won't work out for him. Most of that 55% (and some of the middle 15%) will probably find its way to a single alternative candidate. Actually, with all the talk of vote splitting, we haven't actually seen any evidence of it in previous Mayoral elections. Things often settle into a two-way race.

 

[LowPolygon]

......Rob Ford doesn't have to spend a dime to get publicity. Rob Ford just steps outside of his house in the morning and he is surrounded by a phalanx of reporters all eager to get a sound-bite from him; all demanding that he finally answer the following questions: have you ever smoked crack? is that you in the video? are you an alcoholic? why did you try to visit Bruno Bellissimo in jail? did you direct Sandro Lisi and David Price to go collect the recording of you smoking crack, have you ever hired a prostitute?

yea, you can't buy publicity like that

 

[downradio]

Sandro never played football, or any other sport. Spent most of his time in high school smoking and dealing weed (I was a client).

Sounds like you have might have some insider insights. Any chance you could shed some light on what Sandro does for a living nowadays? Or his relationship with Mayor McCheese?

 

[MetroMan]

I don't know the contents of the warrants released to the media's legal team but I do know that it is good. Ford is definitely involved in Project Traveller, however not criminally. Still, the warrants will likely prove the existence of the video. Stand by...

 

[MetroMan]

Ford isn't exactly healthy, but I'd say he has at the very least five years to go before something mortal happens.

His dopplegänger probably didn't expect to die, but Chris Farley passed away suddenly at age 33. Ford is 44. When you do drugs, you're playing Russian Roulette and a man in such bad shape is only adding more bullets to the cylinder by driving drunk and smoking crack cocaine.

 

[MetroMan]

I agree with the comment that Ford won't have a problem with money. However I'm still predicting he won't win a second term. Not really for any of the reasons MetroMan mentioned. Just because of the numbers. Ford has had a negative approval rating for almost his entire tenure. People like to talk about the core 30% that won't leave him, but the other side of that equation are the 55% who have consistently disapproved of him. To me, that means that many more things need to fall into place for Ford to win re-election than for him to be defeated (vote splitting on the left, but not on the right, etc). I'm not saying that they won't all fall into place and he can't win re-election. I'm just saying that I think it's more likely that things won't work out for him. Most of that 55% (and some of the middle 15%) will probably find its way to a single alternative candidate. Actually, with all the talk of vote splitting, we haven't actually seen any evidence of it in previous Mayoral elections. Things often settle into a two-way race.

Actually Joe Pants was responsible for holding onto enough Miller supporters that denied Smitherman the win. It was tight but I believe had Pantalone dropped out, Smitherman would have either won or come very close.

 

[Adaax]

Money isn't the only issue here. I think we can all agree that without Kouvalis' help, Ford would have had a much, much tougher time winning. Well, it's doubtful that Kouvalis will touch Ford next time around, if it happens. Multiply by that by many more handlers, strategists, etc., and Ford will be going into this thing blind. It's those people that win elections, not the candidates.

 

[the lemur]

Well, Given the random Distribution of initial Lower case and upper Case letters in his Resume, it Would seem safe To Assume that he may just Have not quite got the Correct name either. A Google search shows that "Anything Goes" is (in addition to being the title of a Cole Porter song and of a pastiche Broadway musical built around that and other Cole Porter songs) a cliched name used by shipping/delivery businesses all over the place. The "Ltd." may mean no more than that he Thought that a Business would have a name Like That.

Maybe there's a clue in the other 'Anything Goes', by the other Cole Porter ...

http://youtu.be/j2VTR86_iOM?t=1m37s

 

[guitarchitect]

Actually Joe Pants was responsible for holding onto enough Miller supporters that denied Smitherman the win. It was tight but I believe had Pantalone dropped out, Smitherman would have either won or come very close.

This is a lesson learned by the right a long time ago (and why we have the CPC instead of the Alliance, Reform, And PC party). More choice on one side of the spectrum is just shitty vote splitting, and almost guarantees a win for the other side. Whatever happens in the next election, I hope the people running against Ford are smart enough to realize that there should only be one candidate, and put the future of the city ahead of their political ambitions.

Oh, who am I kidding - that'll never happen. What we really need is to change the voting system and hopefully the Ranked Ballot is approved for 2018.

 

[iClaudiusII]

Actually Joe Pants was responsible for holding onto enough Miller supporters that denied Smitherman the win. It was tight but I believe had Pantalone dropped out, Smitherman would have either won or come very close.

When Ford first won, a friend high up in the "legitimate" Italian business person community, claimed Ford owed his organization big for the win. I wonder if they got Joe Pants to stay in the race, I found it "curious" as well that Mamoliti, previously a left wing councillor for most of his career all of a sudden went right wing and supported Ford. I've had my suspicions that the payback was in the form of GFL getting the private garbage collection contracts, the company seemed to have acquired the men and materials over night in order to take the contract over so smoothly.

 

[MetroMan]

BREAKING: I've received a tip that police have Ford on a wiretap soliciting drugs. Stand by.