Roads: Ontario/GTA Highways Discussion

[11th]

The east 407 becoming free really diminishes the importance of the RIRO segment of the 115. I wonder if it would make sense to redesignate the eastern segment of the 115 (which is built to 400 series standards) as the 407 and retire the 115 designation altogether (the RIRO segment would be 35 only).

There is one small section (yellow highlighted) that needs a bypass. Then you are all set.

 

[just east of the creek]

So... Can we put to bed the idea that drivers pay for the cost of roads? Gas tax cut to basically nothing, registration fees eliminated...

It is going to get interesting. At some point the citizens of Ontario are going to have to pay the operating cost of something. And right now that something is housing, and maybe food, maybe I say, as upstream from the consumer, we can qualify for a number of grants and risk/insurance plans that subsidize the costs of food (to some degree, depending on the jurisdiction the item is grown)..Anything else?

 

[ShonTron]

The east 407 becoming free really diminishes the importance of the RIRO segment of the 115. I wonder if it would make sense to redesignate the eastern segment of the 115 (which is built to 400 series standards) as the 407 and retire the 115 designation altogether (the RIRO segment would be 35 only).

It would still require the upgrade of the section of 35/115 between the 407 and the split south of Pontypool, which is definitely not up to 400-series standards.

 

[Haljackey]

Based on the short stretch of the RIRO between Hwy 407 and the 115, it's probably just cheaper to expropriate the homes and businesses lining the highway compared to building a new freeway-quality route parallel. Build service side roads where you can, and demo the others. Maybe get 1 proper interchange built here for local access.

And then yes, you could label the 407 all the way to Peterborough. The connecting ramps at the 407's current end would need to be beefed up to 2 lanes however, but it looks like that was designed in mind.

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As for Brock Road, you could build 2 new ramps to connect the 407 directly with Highway 7 if you wanted.

There seems to be enough room under the Highway 7 overpass

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The province may want to look into 6 laning the 407 between the 412 and 418 medium term if traffic warrants it. This could delay widening on the 401 between Ajax and the 35/115 too if enough 401 traffic uses the free 407 instead.

 

[ericmacm]

So... Can we put to bed the idea that drivers pay for the cost of roads? Gas tax cut to basically nothing, registration fees eliminated...

The provincial gas tax, as it stands currently, is $0.09/L. In 2023 (most recent data available, net sales of gasoline to motor vehicles in Ontario was a total volume of 15.86B L. Under the current taxation rate, that results in approximately $1.42B of revenue to the province. This is effectively the only recurrent fee that drivers pay to the province now, especially since license plate renewal fees were also eliminated (however, the program was indicated to be bringing in less money than it cost the province to also administer the program, but with that said, we don’t know how much the new automatic program costs). Given that the revenue is relatively low in comparison to what it costs to build roads, it is reasonable to say that the gas taxes, as they stand, currently do not fully pay for road maintenance and construction. The provincial budget for road construction and repairs was $3.2B in that year, so the tax would have amounted to around 44% of spending on provincial roads. HWY 407E tolls and the higher tax rate on fuel would have gotten it closer to breaking even. However, this equation does not consider municipal roads, the funds for which are paid for through property taxes.

An argument could be made, however, that drivers also make significant contributions to the provincial tax pool (which subsequently funds the construction of roads) through the 8% PST on the sale of vehicles (both new and used), in addition to the collection of RST (in Ontario, a 13% tax collected entirely by the province) on vehicles sold in private sales, collected at registration. If you don’t drive, you don’t need to buy a car, to put it simply. In 2023 (just to use the same year for comparison), approximately $39.84B worth of new vehicles were sold in Ontario. With an 8% PST, the new car sales market generated $3.18B in 2023. Compared to the 2023 spend of $3.2B, PST generated off of new vehicle sales alone would essentially cover the cost of any provincial highway projects for that year.

 

[afransen]

The provincial gas tax, as it stands currently, is $0.09/L. In 2023 (most recent data available, net sales of gasoline to motor vehicles in Ontario was a total volume of 15.86B L. Under the current taxation rate, that results in approximately $1.42B of revenue to the province. This is effectively the only recurrent fee that drivers pay to the province now, especially since license plate renewal fees were also eliminated (however, the program was indicated to be bringing in less money than it cost the province to also administer the program, but with that said, we don’t know how much the new automatic program costs). Given that the revenue is relatively low in comparison to what it costs to build roads, it is reasonable to say that the gas taxes, as they stand, currently do not fully pay for road maintenance and construction. The provincial budget for road construction and repairs was $3.2B in that year, so the tax would have amounted to around 44% of spending on provincial roads. HWY 407E tolls and the higher tax rate on fuel would have gotten it closer to breaking even. However, this equation does not consider municipal roads, the funds for which are paid for through property taxes.

An argument could be made, however, that drivers also make significant contributions to the provincial tax pool (which subsequently funds the construction of roads) through the 8% PST on the sale of vehicles (both new and used), in addition to the collection of RST (in Ontario, a 13% tax collected entirely by the province) on vehicles sold in private sales, collected at registration. If you don’t drive, you don’t need to buy a car, to put it simply. In 2023 (just to use the same year for comparison), approximately $39.84B worth of new vehicles were sold in Ontario. With an 8% PST, the new car sales market generated $3.18B in 2023. Compared to the 2023 spend of $3.2B, PST generated off of new vehicle sales alone would essentially cover the cost of any provincial highway projects for that year.

What about all the non-provincial roads? You need to add the road budgets of all municipalities.

 

[ericmacm]

What about all the non-provincial roads? You need to add the road budgets of all municipalities.

I mentioned that I did not include municipal roads in the calculation. There was no quick figure for the total amount of municipal road spending across the province for that year for this back-of-the-napkin calculation. There are 400+ municipalities in Ontario. Toronto and Ottawa, the two largest, had roads budgets of $900M and $464M for 2023, respectively.

I also didn’t include revenue generated from used car sales either, neither dealership nor private sales are reported the same way as new car sales.

 

[Undead]

There's also the higher income tax receipts from the insurers to the province because of auto insurance premiums contributing to the insurers' profits.

 

[innsertnamehere]

2025 provincial budget it out - Ford may finally be starting to put his money where his mouth is. For years Ford has talked big highway game but has continued to fund the provincial highway network at a similar level to his Liberal predecessors - so much so that he has actually been physically building fewer new highways than the Liberals did.

The 2025 budget is the first to see a substantial increase in highways funding, inflation adjusted.

Annual spending is expected to jump about $870 million or about 25% from $3.4 billion to $4.3 billion.

Notably, Transit spending remains above 10 billion - over double that of highway spending.

I assume part of this is the upload of the Gardiner and DVP, and part of it is to actually start funneling money into his promised highways programs.

Notice as well the huge increase in hospital spending incoming over the next few years.

As a whole, highways remain a small portion of the Province's capital and total spending, despite how it is portrayed in the media. Even this $800m/year increase is relatively small compared to the province's entire fiscal capacity, representing about 0.4% of the total budget.

The wider budget document itself does not mention any new highway projects that have not already been announced, from what I can tell.

 

[bearcat]

2025 provincial budget it out - Ford may finally be starting to put his money where his mouth is. For years Ford has talked big highway game but has continued to fund the provincial highway network at a similar level to his Liberal predecessors - so much so that he has actually been physically building fewer new highways than the Liberals did.

The 2025 budget is the first to see a substantial increase in highways funding, inflation adjusted.

Annual spending is expected to jump about $870 million or about 25% from $3.4 billion to $4.3 billion.

View attachment 651654

Notably, Transit spending remains above 10 billion - over double that of highway spending.

I assume part of this is the upload of the Gardiner and DVP, and part of it is to actually start funneling money into his promised highways programs.

Notice as well the huge increase in hospital spending incoming over the next few years.

As a whole, highways remain a small portion of the Province's capital and total spending, despite how it is portrayed in the media. Even this $800m/year increase is relatively small compared to the province's entire fiscal capacity, representing about 0.4% of the total budget.

The wider budget document itself does not mention any new highway projects that have not already been announced, from what I can tell.

Is the 401 tunel included in these numbers at all, or is that too far into the future?

 

[innsertnamehere]

Is the 401 tunel included in these numbers at all, or is that too far into the future?

Not by the looks of it, at least for any construction. Such a project even optimistically would not see major capital spending ramp up on it until the end of the 10-year forecast anyway.

I imagine the cost of the preliminary design studies are included, but those are probably only a couple million dollars at most.

 

[Northern Light]

In regards to highways...........

The 413 has not completed land acquisition. The only construction related commitment is as follows:

Furthermore, the government is advancing an early works construction project to get shovels in the ground for this project, including an embankment at the Highway 401 and Highway 407 interchange, the Highway 10 underpass and resurfacing, and the Bovaird Drive underpass.

There is only infrastructural item for the Bradford by pass moving forward with this budget (construction):

Furthermore, the government is aiming to award a contract for a detour at 10th Sideroad for the western section, and award the detail design contracts for the remaining sections for the Bradford Bypass by fall 2025.
The 401 tunnel only gets its preliminary study.

For more info, check out this section of the budget.

2025 Ontario Budget | Chapter 1B | Building Ontario

2025 Ontario Budget: A Plan to Protect Ontario

budget.ontario.ca

 

[bearcat]

In regards to highways...........

The 413 has not completed land acquisition. The only construction related commitment is as follows:

Furthermore, the government is advancing an early works construction project to get shovels in the ground for this project, including an embankment at the Highway 401 and Highway 407 interchange, the Highway 10 underpass and resurfacing, and the Bovaird Drive underpass.

There is only infrastructural item for the Bradford by pass moving forward with this budget (construction):

Furthermore, the government is aiming to award a contract for a detour at 10th Sideroad for the western section, and award the detail design contracts for the remaining sections for the Bradford Bypass by fall 2025.
The 401 tunnel only gets its preliminary study.

View attachment 651683


For more info, check out this section of the budget.

2025 Ontario Budget | Chapter 1B | Building Ontario

2025 Ontario Budget: A Plan to Protect Ontario

budget.ontario.ca

Sorry, perhaps I should read the source, but is land acquisition for highways included in the provincial highways infrastructure totals in that chart above?

 

[Northern Light]

Sorry, perhaps I should read the source, but is land acquisition for highways included in the provincial highways infrastructure totals in that chart above?

I honestly don't know; but would tend to assume so.

 

[Northern Light]

This story doesn't really require elaboration............

But The CBC's editor gave it a BlogTO worthy headline:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/cows-loose-on-highway-400-king-township-1.7537497