CDL.TO
Moderator
But yet the TTC says that the subway network makes money. Clearly it's not as simple as looking at population density and nothing more.
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Referendum on Transit City needed
- Thread starter W. K. Lis
- Start date
But yet the TTC says that the subway network makes money. Clearly it's not as simple as looking at population density and nothing more.
grey
Senior Member
Well, that itself is a bit tricky.
My guess is that only a few stations are self sufficient – only 6 wards cleared that 7000 persons per square kilometre level in 2006 – and two of those wards had a huge decline in population (wards 14 and 17) ostensibly due to gentrification. I wouldn’t be surprised if ward 17 is below the 7000 p/m^2 benchmark now.
You’d have to look at ridership ins and outs at each station onto the trains only, minus the costs of the station weighted for the proportion of use of subway, minus the unit cost of train stopping in that station multiplied by number of times stopped, minus the cost of the ticket taker(s) (weighted for ridership in/outs that get directly onto a bus or streetcar).
I say unit cost, because technically, the subway can’t be run in increments, TTC has to be a flat fare, since the subway still costs the same no matter what because the whole thing is electrified the whole time and the subway car can’t cut its trip short, you know? It’d be the same story for the LRT, not so much for busses.
To be more accurate, you’d also have to incorporate the residual income derived from people who pay to get on a bus or streetcar first to get to the station, and the residual loss derived from people who don’t end their trip at the subway station, but get on a streetcar or bus to finish their trip
I bet someone could crowdsource a calculation and get a figure for each stop, but I’m not sure what data would be in the public domain upon which to do all that.
My guess is that only a few stations are self sufficient – only 6 wards cleared that 7000 persons per square kilometre level in 2006 – and two of those wards had a huge decline in population (wards 14 and 17) ostensibly due to gentrification. I wouldn’t be surprised if ward 17 is below the 7000 p/m^2 benchmark now.
You’d have to look at ridership ins and outs at each station onto the trains only, minus the costs of the station weighted for the proportion of use of subway, minus the unit cost of train stopping in that station multiplied by number of times stopped, minus the cost of the ticket taker(s) (weighted for ridership in/outs that get directly onto a bus or streetcar).
I say unit cost, because technically, the subway can’t be run in increments, TTC has to be a flat fare, since the subway still costs the same no matter what because the whole thing is electrified the whole time and the subway car can’t cut its trip short, you know? It’d be the same story for the LRT, not so much for busses.
To be more accurate, you’d also have to incorporate the residual income derived from people who pay to get on a bus or streetcar first to get to the station, and the residual loss derived from people who don’t end their trip at the subway station, but get on a streetcar or bus to finish their trip
I bet someone could crowdsource a calculation and get a figure for each stop, but I’m not sure what data would be in the public domain upon which to do all that.
grey
Senior Member
If you skim the annual report, all the stats there are rolled up into a system level. The operating cost per passenger just happens to match the operating revenue per passenger after the subsidy.
The most you can do in it is weight subway use on the basis of kilometres travelled, but there’s no indication of how many trips were done by subway, etc, etc...
We would have to put in a specific FOI request, probably.
The most you can do in it is weight subway use on the basis of kilometres travelled, but there’s no indication of how many trips were done by subway, etc, etc...
We would have to put in a specific FOI request, probably.
howl
Active Member
The problem with a referendum is that it’s not an easily understandable issue. Even Rob Ford doesn’t seem to realize it takes a lot of planning, integration and assessment of options before you start to build a new system. Building a system based on the whim of voters would be a disaster.
W. K. Lis
Superstar
I’ve listened to Rob Ford on CFRB this morning (Dec. 3rd), and he continues to call the vehicles for Transit City: streetcars. This man seems to call any vehicle using an overhead catenary a streetcar. I wonder if he would call any of the bullet trains, or the electrification of GO, streetcars. I also wonder if they had used a third rail for the light rail vehicles on the SRT, would he still object? Probably.
Rob Ford is no transit expert, not even a regular transit user. In fact, he seems to avoid public transit as much as possible. I do not want him to make any decisions on public transit. Where did he get this phobia for streetcars, light rail, and catenary?
Rob Ford is no transit expert, not even a regular transit user. In fact, he seems to avoid public transit as much as possible. I do not want him to make any decisions on public transit. Where did he get this phobia for streetcars, light rail, and catenary?
MisterF
Senior Member
Why the constant subway vs. light rail debate? I can see a simpleton like Rob Ford focusing on that false dichotomy, but not an intelligent forum like this one. No city the size of Toronto should be choosing between light rail and subway, it should be building both. Subways are needed in some corridors, and light rail is more appropriate in others. Still others are better served with regional rail. It seems this debate is being oversimplified to the point of farce.
Dan416
Senior Member
You're right, Sheppard should continue as a subway, and Eglinton should be LRT, as planned. It is silly to demand everything be LRT, I don't know why people fetishize LRT.
grey
Senior Member
I don't think anyone's fetishizing LRT, it's just the most realistic, common sense option right now. It's the first money that's been available in generations, so just take it and build whatever helps the most people immediately (multiple LRT lines, not a subway extension to Sheppard).
The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. That is not a fetish.
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Dan416
Senior Member
Exactly. It's the first money that's available and we should use it to improve the NETWORK. Multiple slow-moving LRTs aren't going to do anything to improve the subway backbone of the network. The only thing that will do that is the DRL which no one is talking about.
EnviroTO
Senior Member
The difference between HRT and LRT is capacity. It makes no sense to roll out the higher capacity mode to the route where all projections show a lower demand. Speed is not determined by HRT or LRT, it is determined by stops.
AKS
Senior Member
I thought building a subway and trashing the LRT was a pretty wasteful and expensive venue too. However after hearing suggestions from Chinese radio they could sell the land to build over the subway stations like HK does, they could work with private sector to get money. I think maybe that idea is feasible. For every station they create, they can sell high prices for land on 4 corners of the intersection with connection to the subway station but retain ownership of the station. It will be like Hong Kong and they could even build shopping arcades. This would also increase density to justify the subway station. That's if they stop building subway stations only and nothing over it. However, the city should make DRL a high priority. Even if you add infrastructure. If the downtown can't support it, adding more would just cause more strain for people taking subways. Rush hour is a killer and subways downtown are jam packed. The platforms at Yonge and Bloor and Union station is cramped. Especially Union. I'm surprised people aren't pushed off the platform.
lafard
Active Member
The problem with selling the land is simply that Toronto's land values are not high enough. The site for One Bloor, a large lot at arguably the most important intersection in Canada, sold for about $60M. Land on the "avenues" - zoned for intensification, even, can still be had for a few million bucks an acre. There are houses fronting Sheppard a few blocks from the subway that are primarily land value and can be had for $1.2-$1.5M. That means land value of $5m/acre - optimistically $50M or so for the entire station.
Optimistically, I say. Yonge and Sheppard, quite possibly the site most appicable to this model, has ONE of the four corners occupied by dense development suited for a subway intersection, and t's been there for decades. Two corners are vacant/parking lots and the third is a strip mall. The land on the west side was used by the TTC/city to literally move Yonge street out of the way of subway excavation (subway cosntruction doesn't cause disruption, don'tcha know?), and was perfect for redevelopment once they filled in the pit and de-diverted it. A decade on, one side's a parking lot and the other one not even that.
Further, if you build more than 5-10 stations what you can get for a lot on a subway station drops off even further as the supply vs demand ratio changes.
Realistically, you will never manage to reclaim more than 5-10% of the costs of construction in this manner.
Optimistically, I say. Yonge and Sheppard, quite possibly the site most appicable to this model, has ONE of the four corners occupied by dense development suited for a subway intersection, and t's been there for decades. Two corners are vacant/parking lots and the third is a strip mall. The land on the west side was used by the TTC/city to literally move Yonge street out of the way of subway excavation (subway cosntruction doesn't cause disruption, don'tcha know?), and was perfect for redevelopment once they filled in the pit and de-diverted it. A decade on, one side's a parking lot and the other one not even that.
Further, if you build more than 5-10 stations what you can get for a lot on a subway station drops off even further as the supply vs demand ratio changes.
Realistically, you will never manage to reclaim more than 5-10% of the costs of construction in this manner.
Dan416
Senior Member
Multiple LRTs that don't increase speeds very much aren't helping anyone. People are still stuck out in the cold waiting for a streetcar, or LRV if you like. Need I remind you of our climate?
You're right this is the first money available in generations. And we should use it to expand a subway system that hasn't grown with the population and has stagnated for years. No wonder the city has so much traffic. LRT will do nothing to improve the subway network and will just add to the the crowding on the subways.
Nevermind the fact that Sheppard already has an unfinished subway line. It's incumbent on us to finish it so it can reach it's full potential.
AKS
Senior Member
Well, you should know the speed of Toronto's subway building. It takes about 1-2 years to build a station. I think the Sheppard line with 5 stations? Took 6 years to build. Imagine building 5-10 stations. It will take over a decade. It's not even just selling the land but the money the govt gets for building. They charge development fees, section 37, etc. That's one of the reasons why condo prices are sky rocketing. After it's built there's property taxes they collect and land transfer taxes. You can collect way more taxes from one tall building than the whole block. 4 blocks on one intersection. Then there's height variation they can squeeze more money from developers. Course, condos won't be going for cheap.
I think prices on the land would increase too if they plan to build a station. I'm surprised Yonge and Sheppard took so long to develop. But I guess cuz most builders concentrated on downtown. But now downtown prices are out of people's reach. So they're expanding in the GTA near stations. (Treviso, downsview plan, yonge & sheppard, bayview and sheppard, etc). I can't believe the article I read about build Toronto saying they didn't expect it to be so easy to sell off land. And were so ambitious to say downsview would be selling at $600 psf by the time it's built... If that's true, downtown would be hitting $1000 psf.
valvenis
New Member
Subways are not deus ex machinas - that will solve all of Toronto's transportation problems.
Nor does building subways instead of LRT automagically protect people from the elements. After all - people are exposed to the elements at the platform level at Rosedale, Summerhill and Davisville.
Plus - shelters can be built to protect people from the elements. By the way - are you equally concerned about all the people waiting at bus stops without shelters?
Properly managed, the LRT will improve and supplement the subway network. They do that every day in European cities like Berlin and Paris. I've seen it with my own eyes. The Eglinton LRT line will give people north of old Toronto access to light rail that's only slightly slower than the subway lines. The Eglinton line will also take a ton of Eglinton 32 buses off the road.