Rail: Ontario-Quebec High Speed Rail Study

[wyliepoon]

Most of it comes from taking the cost of the Shanghai line and then multiplying it by the distance travelled, without taking into account that the Shanghai line was built through a dense urban area and it would obviously be far cheaper to build through farmland.

Most of the Shanghai line is built in the rural part of Pudong (something that many people don't realize is that a huge chunk of Pudong is still farmland, including most of the land around Pudong Airport that the maglev serves). The only urban area that the maglev runs into is at the city end of the line at Longyang Road metro station, which is the second-to-last station eastbound on Line 2 of the Shanghai Metro. The density around that station is not extremely dense, probably not even as dense as our North York Centre, and there are still patches of farmland around the station.

Longyang Road station on Google Maps

The plan to extend the maglev westward from Shanghai to Hangzhou is a huge issue in Shanghai because it will require the line to be built through the dense inner city of Shanghai. Shanghai residents are not complaining about the cost, but the possibility that maglev would generate "radiation".

 

[Whoaccio]

Most of the Shanghai line is built in the rural part of Pudong (something that many people don't realize is that a huge chunk of Pudong is still farmland, including most of the land around Pudong Airport that the maglev serves). The only urban area that the maglev runs into is at the city end of the line at Longyang Road metro station, which is the second-to-last station eastbound on Line 2 of the Shanghai Metro. The density around that station is not extremely dense, probably not even as dense as our North York Centre, and there are still patches of farmland around the station.

Longyang Road station on Google Maps

Good god, this is practicly hypnotic.

 

[kEiThZ]

I wonder how much it would cost to merely make the corridor capable of sustaining the current maximum speed (160 kph) the whole way. By my estimation this would cut over 1 hr from travel times for Toronto-Ottawa and Toronto-Montreal even with the stops along the way.

 

[AnarchoSocialist]

Probably quite a lot. An estimate is hard to come up with but considering a lot of the delays and problems are a result of freight traffic this would mean that too create the capacity for line to sustain speeds of 160 km/h you would have to add at least one track along almost the entire length, and possibley two more along some of it. This would mean earthwork, trackwork, structure work along the length of it which I would say would be at least 1 billion dollars, and I would think that it could easily reach 2 billion if there are more issues I havent thought about or sections through built up, urban areas are numerous.

 

[Dirk]

Maglev, is in fact very expensive, whether in urban or rural areas, since it needs to be elevated, and the cost of the electromagnets that must line the whole length are extremely expensive. For example, the recently canceled Munich city center-airport maglev was going to cost 5.7 billion for a 30-40 km line, compared to a 500+ km line direct (no Ottawa) from montreal to Toronto.That means an about $100 billion cost, compared to $40 billion electric hsr for the whole corridor. Even when taking into account the fact that the munich line was going to be in an urban area, costs are still astromnomical, and they will rise. In fact, since maglev has only been really used once (Shanghai), the numbers for maglev are very sketchy estimates, where as the $40 billion estimate is from data given by the French for the building of their 350 km/h Paris-Strasbourg line.

My recommendation is instead a normal high speed 350 km/h line along the 401 to Montreal, with a direct service, and a regional service, and too pay the cost, toll the 401/Quebec equivalent since the route follows those highways, and the regional service would stop at all cities and large towns along the way. Eventually, a spur to Ottawa would be made, and additional spurs to other cities and towns close to the line.

 

[Hipster Duck]

I will be watching the outcome of the California vote in two weeks which, more than any other measure, will determine whether HSR finally gets taken seriously in North America. If they approve it, I expect that we will be relatively swift in planning and building our own line. Sadly, Canadians are still incapable of embracing ideas that don't come from south of the border (eg: from Europe, Asia, or the rest of the world).

Up until recently, I was pretty enthusiastic about the outcome in Cali. In July, a poll showed that Californians who were aware of the ballot measure were 57% for HSR. Of course, with a massive budget hole and lower oil prices and the fear that those who don't know about ballot measures usually vote against them, I am not so certain.

Also, Florida has been very quietly investing in passenger rail upgrades that will establish at least a quasi-corridor in the future. This is another place to watch.

 

[kEiThZ]

Probably quite a lot. An estimate is hard to come up with but considering a lot of the delays and problems are a result of freight traffic this would mean that too create the capacity for line to sustain speeds of 160 km/h you would have to add at least one track along almost the entire length, and possibley two more along some of it. This would mean earthwork, trackwork, structure work along the length of it which I would say would be at least 1 billion dollars, and I would think that it could easily reach 2 billion if there are more issues I havent thought about or sections through built up, urban areas are numerous.

1-2 billion is fairly reasonable. I think that's much better than the current situation where every decade somebody pitches a 12 billion dollar line and everyone balks at the cost. Instead spending a few billion would add capacity in the corridor, improve the flow of goods, and significantly increase speed for VIA.....saving 1 hr may not make in competitive with an airplane but it's nothing to dismiss off hand. That would be a 25% time savings on a trip to Ottawa or Montreal from Toronto.

Given the security at our airports, their distance from downtown, results in a trip from downtown to downtown taking about 3-3.5 hrs, getting the rail trips down to around 3.5 - 4 hours makes them quite competitive with commercial aviation for most people. That's not hard to accomplish. Currently the fastest trip to Ottawa is about 4 hrs 20 mins and to Ottawa about 4 hrs 40 mins from Union. Simply speeding up along the route would achieve a lot. Moving along at 160 would actually get trip times around 3.5 hours with stops. There is no need to even reduce services at stops along the way, etc.

 

[Whoaccio]

I may be dreaming in technicolour here, but has there ever been any movement to electrify the corridor?

 

[unimaginative2]

Keithz, that makes sense but there are a few problems. First of all, I don't think it makes sense to spend $2 billion on marginal improvements, since that sunk cost will be a major deterrent to building a real dedicated high speed line at some point in the future. Secondly, it may well be money completely wasted. CN is still going to own the corridor, and they're still going to do the dispatching. Their heavy freights are still going to be tearing up the tracks. We may well end up with several billion expended and the same reliability problems and limited schedules that we have today.

There's no reason why countries like Argentina, Turkey, Portugal, and Morocco can build dedicated high speed lines and we can't. It's especially absurd when you figure that Canada is home to the largest maker of high speed rail equipment in the world. A dedicated high speed railway would have immense environmental and economic benefits, tying together all of the major cities of the corridor, as well as dramatically improving accessibility to smaller centres like Kingston and Windsor.

I also have very high hopes for the California bond initiative, but it's still no guarantee. Florida passed a ballot initiative for high speed rail, but Governor Bush just refused to implement it. The resistance to high speed rail is very strong in the English-speaking world.

 

[afransen]

1-2 billion is fairly reasonable. I think that's much better than the current situation where every decade somebody pitches a 12 billion dollar line and everyone balks at the cost. Instead spending a few billion would add capacity in the corridor, improve the flow of goods, and significantly increase speed for VIA.....saving 1 hr may not make in competitive with an airplane but it's nothing to dismiss off hand. That would be a 25% time savings on a trip to Ottawa or Montreal from Toronto.

Given the security at our airports, their distance from downtown, results in a trip from downtown to downtown taking about 3-3.5 hrs, getting the rail trips down to around 3.5 - 4 hours makes them quite competitive with commercial aviation for most people. That's not hard to accomplish. Currently the fastest trip to Ottawa is about 4 hrs 20 mins and to Ottawa about 4 hrs 40 mins from Union. Simply speeding up along the route would achieve a lot. Moving along at 160 would actually get trip times around 3.5 hours with stops. There is no need to even reduce services at stops along the way, etc.

Seeing as all kinds of accounting magic happens within government as it is, why not just borrow the $12 billion and amortize it over 25 years?

 

[kEiThZ]

Keithz, that makes sense but there are a few problems. First of all, I don't think it makes sense to spend $2 billion on marginal improvements, since that sunk cost will be a major deterrent to building a real dedicated high speed line at some point in the future. Secondly, it may well be money completely wasted. CN is still going to own the corridor, and they're still going to do the dispatching. Their heavy freights are still going to be tearing up the tracks. We may well end up with several billion expended and the same reliability problems and limited schedules that we have today.

I beg to differ. Yes CN would still own the corridor. But there's no reason VIA could not co-operate to build a third track, improve signalling, etc. I think what is preventing us from doing anything is the sticker shock of high speed rail. Selling the public on 2 billion for improved speed is a lot easier. I think the poor man's solution would achieve a lot. Cutting travel times by upto 40 mins - 1 hr just by ensuring that the current max speed can be sustained is nothing to scoff at. That would put VIA slightly below airlines in downtown to downtown block times. About 3.5 hrs by air. And about 4 hrs by VIA. At the current 5-6 hrs by VIA, rail is just uncompetitive.

There's no reason why countries like Argentina, Turkey, Portugal, and Morocco can build dedicated high speed lines and we can't. It's especially absurd when you figure that Canada is home to the largest maker of high speed rail equipment in the world.

We forget that in many of those countries, expressways are outdated and expensive to upgrade, leading to rail being the practical alternative.

A dedicated high speed railway would have immense environmental and economic benefits, tying together all of the major cities of the corridor, as well as dramatically improving accessibility to smaller centres like Kingston and Windsor.

Also, should real HSR come in, I'd be skeptical whether anything smaller than Kingston gets served.

Seeing as all kinds of accounting magic happens within government as it is, why not just borrow the $12 billion and amortize it over 25 years?

I'd support that. Except I don't think VIA would be able to pay it off.... But it might be a consideration given the low interest rates these days. Possibly an extension of Dion's green infrastructure bonds idea.

 

[MisterF]

My recommendation is instead a normal high speed 350 km/h line along the 401 to Montreal, with a direct service, and a regional service, and too pay the cost, toll the 401/Quebec equivalent since the route follows those highways, and the regional service would stop at all cities and large towns along the way. Eventually, a spur to Ottawa would be made, and additional spurs to other cities and towns close to the line.

There's no way Ottawa would be on a spur - it would be on the mainline. A line from Kingston to Ottawa to Montreal would be only 60 km longer than following the St. Lawrence. An extra 60 km (20 minutes) to serve a city of a million people is a no brainer.

We forget that in many of those countries, expressways are outdated and expensive to upgrade, leading to rail being the practical alternative.

No expressway can compete with high speed rail. Besides, France has excellent expressways and a relatively low population density. Those excuses don't cut it.

Also, should real HSR come in, I'd be skeptical whether anything smaller than Kingston gets served.

Again, look to other countries. High speed rail and conventional speed trains can coexist.

A high speed line is expensive but what people forget is that it would make a profit and actually pay for itself in 20-30 years. It'll cost more money if we don't build it. That's the way it should be sold.

 

[jswag]

I wonder how much it would cost to merely make the corridor capable of sustaining the current maximum speed (160 kph) the whole way. By my estimation this would cut over 1 hr from travel times for Toronto-Ottawa and Toronto-Montreal even with the stops along the way.

That's an interesting perspective.. I would think that option would be investigated through this study as an alternative to an entirely new network.

With regards to the amortization proposal, I think that could really work. As I recall, that is what the McGuinty government is doing already with the billions of dollars needed to accomplish the MoveOntario 2020 programme. If only we could get the federal government really involved.

I may be dreaming in technicolour here, but has there ever been any movement to electrify the corridor?

Probably not, but as I'm sure you're aware, GO plans to electrify the entire Lakeshore line (East and West) within the next couple of years. At least then a small portion of the corridor would be electrified.

Something tells me the airline lobby is too strong and the HSR lobby too weak to ever get this off the ground (although one would think Harper would be all over this given that Quebec is involved).

 

[kEiThZ]

No expressway can compete with high speed rail. Besides, France has excellent expressways and a relatively low population density. Those excuses don't cut it.

Expressways can't compete on time but they do compete on price...cheaper for the government to build and free for the public to use....for us anyway. What makes Europe different is that expressways are far more challenging to pull off, corridor land is more expensive and terrain is more challenging. At that point rail starts to look relatively better.

And the big one is culture. They have a culture of transit use. We don't. So most travellers feel a need to have a car at the other end, whereas most Europeans or Asians will readily use public transit wherever they are.

Again, look to other countries. High speed rail and conventional speed trains can coexist.

Given the state of VIA now and the lack of demand I am skeptical VIA would have enough demand to run two networks....

A high speed line is expensive but what people forget is that it would make a profit and actually pay for itself in 20-30 years. It'll cost more money if we don't build it. That's the way it should be sold.

That's not been the history in Canada. Passenger rail has not been very profitable at all. If it was, we would not be having this discussion.

That's an interesting perspective.. I would think that option would be investigated through this study as an alternative to an entirely new network.

It's a far easier sell. I guarantee you nobody in this country will ever fork up 12 billion for anything. I propose incremental modernization, first you improve the rail lines, build a third rail, etc. than you electrify the line and so forth....

With regards to the amortization proposal, I think that could really work. As I recall, that is what the McGuinty government is doing already with the billions of dollars needed to accomplish the MoveOntario 2020 programme. If only we could get the federal government really involved.

Amortization works only so long as the system can make money. If it can barely get by like today, then VIA will need straight out grants to build infrastructure.

Something tells me the airline lobby is too strong and the HSR lobby too weak to ever get this off the ground (although one would think Harper would be all over this given that Quebec is involved).

Well, Bombardier builds planes as well, and they have been looking to sell the CSeries to a Canadian customer..... I don't think its the weakness of the HSR lobby, it's just the price tag and the optics of implementing HSR in the Quebec-Windsor corridor. The problem is that its really hard to sell a 12 billion dollar project to the rest of Canada, that only benefits Ontario and Quebec. 2-3 billion for small upgrades is much easier.....

 

[unimaginative2]

I beg to differ. Yes CN would still own the corridor. But there's no reason VIA could not co-operate to build a third track, improve signalling, etc. I think what is preventing us from doing anything is the sticker shock of high speed rail. Selling the public on 2 billion for improved speed is a lot easier. I think the poor man's solution would achieve a lot. Cutting travel times by upto 40 mins - 1 hr just by ensuring that the current max speed can be sustained is nothing to scoff at. That would put VIA slightly below airlines in downtown to downtown block times. About 3.5 hrs by air. And about 4 hrs by VIA. At the current 5-6 hrs by VIA, rail is just uncompetitive.

There's absolutely no reason why VIA and CN couldn't co-operate to build a third track and do upgrades. They have done that many times. The problem, as I said, is that CN still controls the dispatching and their freight trains will still be tearing up the upgraded tracks. There is a long precedent in both Canada and the US of major publicly-funded upgrades being used by the freight railways for their own purposes (i.e. freight car storage) rather than for passenger service.

I agree that the sticker shock is an issue, but the sticker shock will be even more of an issue if we've already spent $2 billion on the existing line. Sometimes, you just have to bite the bullet. Everybody would have thought that the sticker shock on a $50 billion transit plan would have been prohibitive until it happened...

We forget that in many of those countries, expressways are outdated and expensive to upgrade, leading to rail being the practical alternative.

Well, the competition is more with air service, but okay, France and Spain are building massive high-speed networks despite some of the world's most extensive expressway networks.

Also, should real HSR come in, I'd be skeptical whether anything smaller than Kingston gets served.

Like I said, not every train has to stop at every station. In Spain, contrary to expectations, by far the most lucrative routes are out to mid-sized cities about 30-45 minutes out (at high speed) from Madrid. They run large numbers of dedicated commuter high speed trains that almost singlehandedly pay for the line. Kitchener and Guelph would be incredibly lucrative, while Port Hope/Cobourg and Belleville/Trenton also have significant potential.


I'd support that. Except I don't think VIA would be able to pay it off.... But it might be a consideration given the low interest rates these days. Possibly an extension of Dion's green infrastructure bonds idea.[/QUOTE]

Well, Bombardier builds planes as well, and they have been looking to sell the CSeries to a Canadian customer..... I don't think its the weakness of the HSR lobby, it's just the price tag and the optics of implementing HSR in the Quebec-Windsor corridor. The problem is that its really hard to sell a 12 billion dollar project to the rest of Canada, that only benefits Ontario and Quebec. 2-3 billion for small upgrades is much easier.....

Trust me. The airline lobby plays a major role in fighting high-speed rail, especially with its friends at Transport Canada.

Amortization works only so long as the system can make money. If it can barely get by like today, then VIA will need straight out grants to build infrastructure.

Virtually no high-speed network in the world is able to finance its capital costs, but most turn a significant operating profit. That's more than reasonable. The high speed line is a piece of infrastructure, just like a road or a streetcar line, none of which are expected to turn an operating profit, let alone overall profit.