Quebec-Windsor Corridor

[Urban Sky]

I'm not so sure about that. PP makes himself out to represent the "people" but typically the only thing concervative governments care about are budget surpluses at all costs and tax breaks for wealthy Canadians.

Eliminate universal dental care
Eliminate free prescriptions for children and seniors
Cut spending
Tax breaks
Cut immigration

Those are some of his mandates.

It's likely that they won't care about a train that serves rural communities that bleeds money.

I‘m not claiming to have better insights into how PP thinks and what he will do after the election than others here, but the two intercity rail projects he‘ll find on the top of his transport portfolio are a project only benefiting Quebec and Ontario (and there mostly the 3 big Canadian cheeses) and one mostly benefiting all other provinces (and especially: rural communities). If we estimate that taxpayer exposure to HFR is one order of magnitude higher than the LD fleet (say, $30 vs. $3 billion), I believe there will be strong fiscal and political incentives to severely descope HFR to „cut liberal waste“, while preserving the project which acknowledges that this country stretches beyond Quebec City and Windsor (maybe just axing the dome car as the single most expensive and dispensable car type).

Only time will tell, but compared to HFR and the fiscal deficit, the LD fleet is a rather minor (and sensible) item…

 

[micheal_can]

I‘m not claiming to have better insights into how PP thinks and what he will do after the election, but the two intercity rail projects he‘ll find on the top of his transport portfolio are a project only benefiting Quebec and Ontario (and there mostly the 3 big Canadian cheeses) and one mostly benefiting all other provinces (and especially: rural communities). If we estimate that taxpayer exposure to HFR is one order of magnitude higher than the LD fleet (say, $30 vs. $3 billion), I believe there will be strong fiscal and political incentives to severely descope HFR to „cut liberal waste“, while preserving this country stretches beyond Quebec City and Windsor (maybe just axing the dome car as the single most expensive and dispensable car type).

Only time will tell, but compared to HFR and the fiscal deficit, the LD fleet is a rather minor item…

We could get dedicated lines that are owned by Via and regular trains using them. Basically HFR that was first suggested.

As far as the domes, they may be cut from the this contract, but that does not mean that future governments couldn't do a contract for them. It would be an unfortunate thing to not have them replaced in the new fleet, but if it still means a new LDF, it would be worth the loss.

 

[Bordercollie]

We could get dedicated lines that are owned by Via and regular trains using them. Basically HFR that was first suggested.

As far as the domes, they may be cut from the this contract, but that does not mean that future governments couldn't do a contract for them. It would be an unfortunate thing to not have them replaced in the new fleet, but if it still means a new LDF, it would be worth the loss.

The long distance fleet renewal could be cancelled but they would need to cancel the passenger train mandate and eliminate the service all together.

Or they could sell it off and have a private company run it and charge so much money that only tourists can ride it. Similar to the Rocky mountaineer. The smart thing to do with that train would be to allow them to run the train, but also service the local community in exchange. Either on the same train or different. That would at least serve the public.

 

[micheal_can]

The long distance fleet renewal could be cancelled but they would need to cancel the passenger train mandate and eliminate the service all together.

Or they could sell it off and have a private company run it and charge so much money that only tourists can ride it. Similar to the Rocky mountaineer. The smart thing to do with that train would be to allow them to run the train, but also service the local community in exchange. Either on the same train or different. That would at least serve the public.

Like how the Rocky Mountaineer does?

 

[Bordercollie]

Like how the Rocky Mountaineer does?

It doesn't serve the public. It's only for tourists. You think they carry canoes and stop at flag stops?

 

[micheal_can]

It doesn't serve the public. It's only for tourists. You think they carry canoes and stop at flag stops?

That was my point. Any private company will do what they want or not buy it.

 

[Bordercollie]

That was my point. Any private company will do what they want or not buy it.

The difference would be that they would be mandated. And provided a subsidy to run the train like how TOK runs buses for YRT

 

[micheal_can]

The difference would be that they would be mandated. And provided a subsidy to run the train like how TOK runs buses for YRT

I look at it like what happened with Geryhound. Once they left, who filled their spot? For the profitable services, lots did. But for the ones that lost money, none. You cannot take a bus today from Toronto to Vancouver. When Greyhound was around, you could. Why should we think that things would be any more different with a private company that needs to be able to make a profit?

 

[Urban Sky]

The difference would be that they would be mandated. And provided a subsidy to run the train like how TOK runs buses for YRT

Sure, you can set up a franchise system like what should have happened (and refusal to do so will remain JT‘s single biggest transport policy failure) after Grayhound‘s departure. However, it‘s delusionary to expect that private companies will queue to operate 3tpw services like the Skeena and SUDB-WHTR which lack almost any potential for Economies of Scale.

A lot of the efficiencies VIA can exploit is by leveraging its Corridor maintenance centres in Montreal and Toronto, as well as its non-Corridor maintenance centres in Vancouver and Winniper, while using the Canadian and its Corridor services to shuttle equipment around, thus allowing to centralize certain specialized maintenance/overhaul tasks and the equipment/tools required for them. I fail to see how anyone else could underbid VIA‘s current subsidy need…

 

[micheal_can]

The reality is, the Corridor is the only part that has potential for success when privatized. Even then, only the section between Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal would be the most successful. The rest, not so much.

If cuts were to come to Via, I can see the S-WR and the Northern Quebec routes gone. The rest may stay as they pass through CPC rich territory. My thinking on the fleet is it will be run into the ground,much like my ship was when Harper was in. Their will either be an accident or it they will be deemed unsafe and then those routes will slowly be shut down due to lack of equipment. However, if there was a manufacturer that was willing to set up shop in the west,maybe a contract would be awarded. Again, this is not about money. It is a pure political decision.

 

[Bordercollie]

The reality is, the Corridor is the only part that has potential for success when privatized. Even then, only the section between Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal would be the most successful. The rest, not so much.

If cuts were to come to Via, I can see the S-WR and the Northern Quebec routes gone. The rest may stay as they pass through CPC rich territory. My thinking on the fleet is it will be run into the ground,much like my ship was when Harper was in. Their will either be an accident or it they will be deemed unsafe and then those routes will slowly be shut down due to lack of equipment. However, if there was a manufacturer that was willing to set up shop in the west,maybe a contract would be awarded. Again, this is not about money. It is a pure political decision.

I think PP would maintain status quo with VIA. Cutting it entirely would require him to change the act that makes it mandatory to serve rural communities. What would he have to gain from changing that?

 

[micheal_can]

I think PP would maintain status quo with VIA. Cutting it entirely would require him to change the act that makes it mandatory to serve rural communities. What would he have to gain from changing that?

Status quo is the most likely. What he has to gain is balancing the budget. Remember, Veterans Affairs offices were closed to balance Harper's budget. So, anything could be on the table to pseudo balance the budget. Real taxation and monetary changes should be done, but no party seems willing to do it. So, they look at things the average person may not care about and slash that. Via Rail is one of those things.

 

[Bordercollie]

Status quo is the most likely. What he has to gain is balancing the budget. Remember, Veterans Affairs offices were closed to balance Harper's budget. So, anything could be on the table to pseudo balance the budget. Real taxation and monetary changes should be done, but no party seems willing to do it. So, they look at things the average person may not care about and slash that. Via Rail is one of those things.

He may replace the legacy fleet but HSR is likely off the table, unless it's sweet deal...

 

[Mihairokov]

He may replace the legacy fleet but HSR is likely off the table, unless it's sweet deal...

For those who might be curious, the potential Ottawa-Greenboro HSR stop would be ~3KM from Poilievre's riding, and certainly something the Liberal-voting areas in his riding would use from time to time.

 

[micheal_can]

He may replace the legacy fleet but HSR is likely off the table, unless it's sweet deal...

He will need to find another ministry to cannibalize to do so.

For those who might be curious, the potential Ottawa-Greenboro HSR stop would be ~3KM from Poilievre's riding, and certainly something the Liberal-voting areas in his riding would use from time to time.

There is always the potential for things to happen that we may not expect. Generally it is because there is the political capital to spend. Besides, if I understand the way the contract was set up, construction of the HSR would not happen till his second term.