News   Nov 12, 2024
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News   Nov 12, 2024
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Premier Doug Ford's Ontario

Talked to an investigative reporter with one of the major papers the other day. They're already geared up for Ford investigation the sequel! I think they hope he beats Tory just for the thrill of the chase.
 
Talked to an investigative reporter with one of the major papers the other day. They're already geared up for Ford investigation the sequel! I think they hope he beats Tory just for the thrill of the chase.
There’s got to be some decent dirt out there. DECO can’t be smooth sailing, there are bodies buried from his PC dalliance and there’s probably evidence that he bullied Mikey into acting a certain way on certain files. Throw in robocalling and pre-campaigning and we’ve got the makes of another messy election.
 
On CP2Ford today, they did a segment on a poll commissioned from Campaign Research and Tory would get 52%, easily beating Ford. This also had Mike Layton in the mix.
 
On CP2Ford today, they did a segment on a poll commissioned from Campaign Research and Tory would get 52%, easily beating Ford. This also had Mike Layton in the mix.

Disappointing news for them. They want a horse race where Doug's every appearance on their programs could make or break the election.
 
Disappointing news for them. They want a horse race where Doug's every appearance on their programs could make or break the election.
Nate Silver has a very good series that explains polling. I tend to think of our mayoral race as most akin to a US Senate or Gubernatorial election - big names, lots of attention, extended campaign etc... Biggest difference is 2 parties vs. free for all. TL/DR any poll this far out is basically a name recognition check, with little predictive value. In contrast, a Senate candidate lead of >5.5% 30 days out had a 68-0 record of bring correct from 1998-2010.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-averages-part-i-why-you-cant-trust-your-gut/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...olling-averages-part-ii-what-the-numbers-say/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ng-averages-part-iii-this-time-its-different/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...averages-part-iv-are-the-polls-getting-worse/
 
On CP2Ford today, they did a segment on a poll commissioned from Campaign Research and Tory would get 52%, easily beating Ford. This also had Mike Layton in the mix.

I wouldn't discount Ford as a threat this earlier on (especially once the robocalls/propaganda/eternal media spotlighting starts ramping up) - considering that many polls were wrong south of the border.
 
I just don't understand why a conservative voter would vote for anyone but tory. Also the states was partially about a liberal white female following a black male or the token conservative white male.
 

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