marcus_a_j
Senior Member
Does anyone believe that Mississauga's population actually decreased?
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Population of Toronto (Including Census Counts)
- Thread starter hawc
- Start date
Towered
Superstar
I echo your skepticism. Toronto proper's population was already estimated to be just shy of 3 million a while ago, and the growth rate substantially higher than a measly 63,000 spread over 5 years. The forest of condo cranes, traffic gridlock, and sidewalks teeming with pedestrians all over the place tell a very different story than this list. Something is definitely off with these numbers.
And does anyone believe that Mississauga's population actually declined in the last 5 years?? Laughable.
evandyk
Senior Member
I wonder if all the upheaval in the census between 2010 and 2016 caused long-term quality issues with the data?
Northern Light
Superstar
So I went and found Statistic Canada's official population estimates as of Fall 2021:
www150.statcan.gc.ca
Allowing for the 190,000 post-census growth noted above; we appear to be missing 1.3M people nation-wide.
If only 10% of those are young children, we're about to get inundated with 120,000 Amber Alerts!
The Daily — Canada's population estimates, third quarter 2021
The population in Canada was estimated at 38,436,447 on October 1, 2021, an increase of 190,339 persons (+0.5%) from July 1, 2021. This is the second highest quarterly growth seen in Canada after the third quarter of 2019 (+210,169; +0.6%) and shows a return to pre-pandemic levels of growth.
Allowing for the 190,000 post-census growth noted above; we appear to be missing 1.3M people nation-wide.
If only 10% of those are young children, we're about to get inundated with 120,000 Amber Alerts!
allengeorge
Senior Member
Maybe it’s all those international students (sent back home during COVID?) and empty condo units everyone is talking about.
EDIT: Let's say international students, people moving to other municipalities during COVID and tons of unit conversions from missing-middle to SFH. I could imagine those taking a significant chunk from Toronto's population.
EDIT: Let's say international students, people moving to other municipalities during COVID and tons of unit conversions from missing-middle to SFH. I could imagine those taking a significant chunk from Toronto's population.
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allengeorge
Senior Member
Well - if these numbers are correct, then Chicago will eclipse Toronto to become the 4th biggest city on the continent again.
I honestly can’t speak to the veracity of the numbers or the methodology, but…these are the numbers everyone is going to be using going forward.
I honestly can’t speak to the veracity of the numbers or the methodology, but…these are the numbers everyone is going to be using going forward.
allengeorge
Senior Member
Northern Light
Superstar
Let me bring those graphics forward for discussion:
I'm going to have to take to go over these; but at first blush, I see population declines registered on the east side North York downtown. I find that highly questionable.
There are some other eye-catching numbers, this merits further examination.
Northern Light
Superstar
Again, worthy of further discussion.
The only stat I have off the top of my head is foreign students which was pegged at about 50,000 for Toronto; so even if everyone of those returned to their country of origin (seems unlikely) that would only account for a portion of the difference.
Need to see hard numbers of the unit conversions, and net migration.
The challenge here is this: the fall-off in growth to below the level of housing starts would indicate downward pressure on prices which we aren't seeing....
allengeorge
Senior Member
Agreed - we absolutely need more data. That said, maybe the excessive (yes - I use that word) pressure on housing prices is primarily being driven by investors, who are forward-looking and are paying a premium for expectations?
Irishmonk
Senior Member
From Blog TO (for what it's worth)
https://www.blogto.com/city/2022/01/toronto-population-decline-urban-exodus/
Covid, remote workers, cost of housing, declining immigration, fewer international students, etc...There are a host of reasons contributing to Toronto's slow and currently declining population rate. (It would appear that the city gained 100k people in the first four years of the census period, then lost 40K in 2021). This suggests that the housing prices are a persistant bubble caused by over eager investors rather than actual demand. At some point the bubble has to deflate, or burst.
Another factor that is somewhat unique to Toronto (at least in Canada) is the number of cheaper and smaller "Plan B" cities as I call them, that are large enough to offer most general services and are within easy driving distance of the big city when it's necessary. (Hamilton/Niagara, Guelph, KW, Barrie, London, etc).
These new census numbers may disappoint some people, but there they are.
https://www.blogto.com/city/2022/01/toronto-population-decline-urban-exodus/
Covid, remote workers, cost of housing, declining immigration, fewer international students, etc...There are a host of reasons contributing to Toronto's slow and currently declining population rate. (It would appear that the city gained 100k people in the first four years of the census period, then lost 40K in 2021). This suggests that the housing prices are a persistant bubble caused by over eager investors rather than actual demand. At some point the bubble has to deflate, or burst.
Another factor that is somewhat unique to Toronto (at least in Canada) is the number of cheaper and smaller "Plan B" cities as I call them, that are large enough to offer most general services and are within easy driving distance of the big city when it's necessary. (Hamilton/Niagara, Guelph, KW, Barrie, London, etc).
These new census numbers may disappoint some people, but there they are.
W. K. Lis
Superstar
Mustn't forget that some adult children may have left the home nest to either go on their own or go to university.
Memph
Active Member
That was always true, however at the time the census was taken, there would have probably been a significantly larger proportion of students than usual living with their parents and studying online. The population decline is North Scarborough was significant, but so too was the decline in population in the West End (Ossington/Parkdale/Bloordale, St Clair West, etc). The Downtown growth seems a bit lackluster (only 37,000).
It's also worth noting what areas did grow. Many second tier cities in Ontario outpaced Toronto, and Durham Region grew fairly quickly, as did the northern "exurbs" (Caledon, East Gwilimbury, Bradford).
Memph
Active Member
It's not that crazy to me. I don't think Mississauga built that much new housing? Paired with declining household sizes - it's possible. I am surprised at the overall low population growth for the GTA though, and unexpectedly low growth in new condo neighbourhoods.
allengeorge
Senior Member
I’m not. I do think a lot of condos were kept empty during COVID because investors either didn’t want to rent out and set a low-watermark for their units, or, because they couldn’t flip them.
Anecdata, tbh.