Population of Toronto (Including Census Counts)

[wild goose chase]

Huh, interesting. Never thought it would be so soon.

LA’s population growth has been pretty shaky recently (dropping by two-thirds), while Toronto’s has remained robust, so they might converge even sooner than that. I feel like housing prices might throw a wrench into Toronto’s population growth though

Is this due to Toronto's domestic migration or immigration numbers being stronger than LA's, or less out-migration?

I know the Texan cities, like Houston have been growing quickly due to both domestic migration from other states and cities, immigration, local birthrates and more affordable housing.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Huh, interesting. Never thought it would be so soon.

LA’s population growth has been pretty shaky recently (dropping by two-thirds), while Toronto’s has remained robust, so they might converge even sooner than that. I feel like housing prices might throw a wrench into Toronto’s population growth though

Toronto's new construction is still crazy though and isn't showing any sign of slowing down. Toronto is slowly and surely taking larger and larger portions of the GTA"s total growth. 10 years ago it was around 10%, now its over 50%.

2034 might be a bit optimistic, but I imagine Toronto will pass LA by 2041.

The GTA is probably sitting at around 6.8-6.9 million right now. CMA is probably around 6.3 milllion, with Oshawa and Burlington adding another 500k.

 

[Towered]

Toronto's new construction is still crazy though and isn't showing any sign of slowing down. Toronto is slowly and surely taking larger and larger portions of the GTA"s total growth. 10 years ago it was around 10%, now its over 50%.

2034 might be a bit optimistic, but I imagine Toronto will pass LA by 2041.

The GTA is probably sitting at around 6.8-6.9 million right now. CMA is probably around 6.3 milllion, with Oshawa and Burlington adding another 500k.

Isn't the greater Los Angeles area somewhere around 18 million? The GTA is a long way off from that - that's several million more than all of Ontario even.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Isn't the greater Los Angeles area somewhere around 18 million? The GTA is a long way off from that - that's several million more than all of Ontario even.

Oh no Toronto is never going to pass the LA Metro - at least I hope it never does. My comment was aimed at the central municipality population.

 

[rbt]

Toronto's new construction is still crazy though and isn't showing any sign of slowing down. Toronto is slowly and surely taking larger and larger portions of the GTA"s total growth. 10 years ago it was around 10%, now its over 50%.

2034 might be a bit optimistic, but I imagine Toronto will pass LA by 2041.

LA City could ramp up growth to 200k/year if they got the condo bug the same way Toronto has.

They've got a terrible commute pretty much universally and they're running out of land on the easy side of the mountains. They also have thousands of 5 to 12 storey buildings that could be scaled up. The challenging part is earthquake proofing a 40 floor thin residential building is relatively costly, making it a mid-price item rather than a first-time buyer option.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Oh no Toronto is never going to pass the LA Metro - at least I hope it never does. My comment was aimed at the central municipality population.

LA’s metropolitan area is so sprawling and suburban (roughly twice the geographical area of the GTA) that it’s tough to even reasonably compare its population to the GTA’s. LA is built dramatically differently than Toronto. The core city and adjacent areas are most important for how large a city feels

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Toronto's new construction is still crazy though and isn't showing any sign of slowing down. Toronto is slowly and surely taking larger and larger portions of the GTA"s total growth. 10 years ago it was around 10%, now its over 50%.

Huh, interesting. Are you sure about this? I’ve been under the impression that the 905 has been taking up an increasing share of the GTA’s population than Toronto. I might totally be misremembering though. Or perhaps the population projections I’m thinking of actually underestimated Toronto’s growth.

In 2009 the City projected that Toronto would be sitting at 2.9 Million 2021. We’re currently at just over 3.0 Million and should reach at least 3.1 Million by 2021. So relative to a 2006 population of 2.5 Million, the city underestimated growth by about 1/3rd (+400k projected vs +600k actual)

Projection: https://torontoist.com/2009/03/futurist_toronto_in_2020/

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Huh, interesting. Never thought it would be so soon.

LA’s population growth has been pretty shaky recently (dropping by two-thirds), while Toronto’s has remained robust, so they might converge even sooner than that. I feel like housing prices might throw a wrench into Toronto’s population growth though

Speaking of LA’s declining population growth, our friends down in NYC have actually started to outright lose population, after several years of post-recession growth. For the past two years, NYC has lost around 40,000 people.

These are preliminary numbers, so they could be adjusted up or down, but assuming they hold, it brings up two interesting points for Toronto:

1. I suspect NYC’s declining population can largely be attributed to rising housing costs. This could be what Toronto has in store, if we do not find a way to arrest the growth in housing prices. However, City Council just voted 20-3 to investigate “missing middle” and “yellow belt” construction, which if implemented should help tremendously to stabilize housing prices.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1151878089988804608

2. Toronto is well on its way to reaching 4 Million people within the next 20 years. It’s a fools errand to predict population further into the future, however I think Toronto could reasonably reach 5 Million people with a further 20 years of growth. If NYC’s population holds steady at 8 Million, this younger generation of young Tororonians could live to see the day where their city begins rival NYC in size. Not that I’d bet on it happening, but I’m genuinely surprised to see that it’s not a totally unreasonable scenario. I say it’s likely to happen if immigration numbers hold, and we get housing costs under control. I can’t begin to imagine what a Toronto of 5 Million people would look like. Heck, I struggle to imagine what Toronto just 5 years from now will look like with all this development in the pipeline.

 

[Towered]

LA’s metropolitan area is so sprawling and suburban (roughly twice the geographical area of the GTA) that it’s tough to even reasonably compare its population to the GTA’s. LA is built dramatically differently than Toronto. The core city and adjacent areas are most important for how large a city feels

I've never been to LA, but based on it having once had over 1000 km of streetcar tracks, I suspect that a good portion of its built form is classic "streetcar suburbs" - would this be accurate?

 

[Northern Light]

LA City could ramp up growth to 200k/year if they got the condo bug the same way Toronto has.

They've got a terrible commute pretty much universally and they're running out of land on the easy side of the mountains. They also have thousands of 5 to 12 storey buildings that could be scaled up. The challenging part is earthquake proofing a 40 floor thin residential building is relatively costly, making it a mid-price item rather than a first-time buyer option.

I think L.A. has a more pressing challenge on the near-term horizon. Lack of water.

The aquifer's in southern California are at historic lows, and declining; and key source rivers such as the diversion of flows from the Colorado are also down substantially with evidence of lower flows to come.

That seems ill-suited to sustaining large-scale growth.

I'm sure L.A. will make-do, presumably with more reliance on desalinated Ocean water and rain-water harvesting; but that will come with a substantial rise in the cost of water; a bevy of new restrictions on lawns and pools; and I still expect to see an adverse impact on the nearby agricultural sector.

 

[TrickyRicky]

Apparently LA County (10.2 million) A larger jurisdiction than LA municipality is also losing population. That may say more about the internal demographic dynamics of the LA metro but it certainly isn’t a bullish indicator

 

[rbt]

Apparently LA County (10.2 million) A larger jurisdiction than LA municipality is also losing population. That may say more about the internal demographic dynamics of the LA metro but it certainly isn’t a bullish indicator

It is, but I believe it's largely for the same reason inner suburbs of Toronto were losing population. Households with 2 adults and 3 kids became 2 elderly adults, or 2 young adults with strong careers and 1 kid only. LA County is largely built up and protected from intensification.

Riverside, Orange, and San Bernardino counties (all largely part of the LA urban area) are growing pretty rapidly.

If that stretch along the ocean between San Clement and Oceanside wasn't protected, I'd consider San Diego to be an LA suburb (for the same reason Hamilton is a Toronto suburb; connected via a continuous urban zone). As it is, LA/SD have nearly connected on the other side of the hills via Moreno Valley/Temecula.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Huh, interesting. Are you sure about this? I’ve been under the impression that the 905 has been taking up an increasing share of the GTA’s population than Toronto. I might totally be misremembering though. Or perhaps the population projections I’m thinking of actually underestimated Toronto’s growth.

In 2009 the City projected that Toronto would be sitting at 2.9 Million 2021. We’re currently at just over 3.0 Million and should reach at least 3.1 Million by 2021. So relative to a 2006 population of 2.5 Million, the city underestimated growth by about 1/3rd (+400k projected vs +600k actual)

Projection: https://torontoist.com/2009/03/futurist_toronto_in_2020/

The GTA added 125,298 people between July 1 2017 and July 1 2018. Toronto added 77,435 of that, or 61% of the total population growth.

Centre for Urban Research and Land Development

Compare to the 2001-2006 census period, when Toronto took only 5% of the metro population growth (Toronto grew by 22,000, while the metro grew by 447,000).

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The GTA added 125,298 people between July 1 2017 and July 1 2018. Toronto added 77,435 of that, or 61% of the total population growth.

Centre for Urban Research and Land Development

Compare to the 2001-2006 census period, when Toronto took only 5% of the metro population growth (Toronto grew by 22,000, while the metro grew by 447,000).

Wow, absolutely bonkers. Let’s see if this is sustained in the coming years.

The Province expected between 2017 and 2041 for Toronto to account for 1/3rd of GTA population growth (+1 Million) and for the 905 to account foe the rest (+2 Million). So far, that projection is entirely opposite to reality (2/3rds of growth in Toronto, 1/3rd in 905)

I know much of our transport and infrastructure planning was predicated on the idea that the outer suburbs will be absorbing most of the growth in the GTA. If Toronto continues to attract most of the growth, it could dramatically impact the business case for RER and other suburban transit initiatives, while making the Relief Line subway and other Toronto infrastructure projects all the more critical.

Any speculation on what’s fuelling this?

 

[innsertnamehere]

Wow, absolutely bonkers. Let’s see if this is sustained in the coming years.

The Province expected between 2017 and 2041 for Toronto to account for 1/3rd of GTA population growth (+1 Million) and for the 905 to account foe the rest (+2 Million). So far, that projection is entirely opposite to reality (2/3rds of growth in Toronto, 1/3rd in 905)

I know much of our transport and infrastructure planning was predicated on the idea that the outer suburbs will be absorbing most of the growth in the GTA. If Toronto continues to attract most of the growth, it could dramatically impact the business case for RER and other suburban transit initiatives, while making the Relief Line subway and other Toronto infrastructure projects all the more critical.

Any speculation on what’s fuelling this?

My understanding is that employment growth has shifted massively to the greater downtown area. The office market downtown is insatiable, space gets gobbled up as soon as its put on the market while a ton of suburban stuff sits empty. I imagine a lot of people are simply moving to where jobs are.

2017/2018 was a banner year for population growth, typically the GTA grows by 90-100k, not 125k. I believe the suburbs grew more or less as they typically do, with Toronto absorbing most of that additional growth in the surge year.

I expect 2018-2019 to see similar total numbers since the fundamentals are the same as they were (increased immigration under the liberals, depressed Alberta economy pushing growth elsewhere), but I expect to see the Toronto number to drop a bit, perhaps down to 45-50% of the total.