Admiral Beez
Superstar
Canada helping Cuba weather the US embargo will not sit well with Orange man. Tough sh#t, I say.
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PM Mark Carney's Canada
- Thread starter Richard White
- Start date
kEiThZ
Superstar
My hope is that Carney’s primary goal is to reverse the lost decade (2014-2024) where Canada’s economic growth fell far behind the rest of the OECD. For example, Canada’s GDP per capita growth from 2014 to 2024 was just 0.5%—the U.S. figure was 20.7%, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report from October 2024. The damage done to Canada’s economy during the Trudeau era relative to other leading economies is notable.
Just how much damage did Justin Trudeau do to Canada’s economy?
The Trudeau government’s economic legacy in five chartsthehub.ca
Now, if Carney’s can wreck the Conservative’s far right agenda and also force a hard reset of the NDP, that’s a bonus.
This is an incredibly tough task given that so much of what's broken in Canada is straight up bad cultural habits and legacy.
From protectionism to the sort of naive foreign policy and environmentalism of the Trudeau era. And Carney will not be able to change that in one term or three.
kEiThZ
Superstar
It's tokenism. And I honestly don't see the point. $8M doesn't do much. And if Cuba really fails, it's the Americans who will suffer the consequences of a refugee crisis and degraded security environment of having a failed state on their doorstep. We should absolutely let the Trump administration own that failure.
wopchop
Building Toronto
That is pretty callous. It is $8m in funding for food aid and UNICEF. The point is so people don't starve, as Cuba imports the vast majority of its food.
lenaitch
Senior Member
I'm still trying to figure out the Administration's angle on this. I get that he cut off Cuba's main fuel supplier but he could have easily replaced it with US sources. Does he honestly see Cuba as a national security threat or is it just part of his wanting to overall control the 'American hemisphere'?
The Communist boogeyman seems still strong in the US psyche.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I think this is Rubio's personal project. No actual masterplan beyond that.
Full Metal Junkie
Active Member
Communist Cuba has been the thorn in America's side for decades. It goes beyond Trump and Rubio's pet project. Heck, the world almost ended in a nuclear apocalypse over Cuba in the 60's.
And while the treat of Cuba being the launchpad for an attack on the America by USSR is over, the treat of China doing the same is perceived by the US to be real. China has way too much influence over Cuba. And they already have multiple ISR sites on Cuba to spy on America. And that's just the stuff we know of from open sources.
China and the US are steaming full speed towards a war with each other. Eliminating Cuba from the equation before the war with China kicks off would be a prudent move for the US.
Call that 'control over the Western hemisphere', call it whatever else you want. That is the logic behind their actions towards Cuba as outlined in their National Security Strategy.
(For the record, I'm not defending their actions, merely explaining their logic as I interpret it from NSS).
hw621
Senior Member
Will the war between China and US be hot or cold?
Full Metal Junkie
Active Member
Very much a hot one, according to the fresh pentagon report.
China is looking to exploit a limited timing window with their military buildup, which [in China's view] would create a credible deterrent for US involvement over Taiwan. That window opens in 2027 and closes in 2028. If we don't see the war start then, the next timing window China is looking at is mid-30's.
kEiThZ
Superstar
No previous administration has cared enough to starve them out. This is driven the substantial personal animus that Rubio has due the regime that forced his family to flee.
And just like Iran multiple things can be true. The regimes can be horrible. And it can still be questionable to force regime change.
The listening posts are there. But that's a normal part of living with the intelligence threat. They have ships and satellites that regularly "visit" the US every Five Eyes ally too.
China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security
China’s deepening ties with Cuba are opening doors for its military and intelligence services there. Satellite imagery and other open-source information offer an unprecedented look at facilities in Cuba likely to be supporting China’s efforts to spy on the United States.
Full Metal Junkie
Active Member
That's a really cool story that Rubio tells and the GOP repeats. But according to immigration and naturalization documents, Rubio's parents immigrated to America voluntarily almost 3 years before the Castro revolution during the hay days of the pro-American Batisto regime (first reported here). So no, Rubio's family does not have any personal vendetta against the communist Cuba. But Marko never let the truth to get in a way of a good story that helped him get elected.
As for the rest, as I said, it's not my justifications for what they are currently doing with Cuba, it's their justifications. They see China as a credible military threat within the next 2 years. They are eliminating China's allies within striking distance of the US mainland one by one.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Who do you think hates the Revolutionaries the most?
The immigrants who migrated before the Revolution were middle to upper class. They almost certainly had property and businesses in Cuba and other assets they lost.
So yes, personal animus.
There's no real geopolitical reason to change policy now. Especially at this moment when they are about to create a crisis in the Middle East.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Nobody really worries about this in the era of 4th/5th Gen submarine and real FOBS. Containerized missiles are scarier to military planners than fixed targets within easy range from Key West.
hw621
Senior Member
Those China's allies include Canada?
Full Metal Junkie
Active Member
Still, "Castro confiscated our vacant property" falls quite a bit short of the "we fled for our lives from the Castro revolution" Marko makes it sound to be.
And how many containers are sitting in Cuba's docks? How many of them originated from China? Any guarantees that none of them have Chinese cruise missiles with ranges up to 1500 km?
The ships you can at least attempt to track. How do you track containers in docks of China-friendly states?
As I said, Chinese ISR sites on Cuba is just what we know of from OSINT.
No.