PM Mark Carney's Canada

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Let's take a Pole?

Does anyone else feel that the mood on this forum trends towards raging, venting and gloom. Mihairokov, when you got all that soap boxing off your chest, did you feel any better? Better, not worse is how you want to feel when you close down the page, IMO.

I for one have been feeling optimistic for the country. We dodged having a rightwing CPC government, the nation is more united than ever in the face of Trumpian aggression, we have proper and experienced global economist as PM who is building new alliances and relationships across the country and world.

You aren't entirely wrong - we seem to be an island of (relative) stability in the world and our fundamentals are strong (vis-a-vis necessities of human life - e.g. food, water, energy).

AoD

 

[81-717]

Ok....this over-the-top stuff needs to end on all sides.

Toronto is one of the safest cities on the planet.

15–20 years ago? Yes, without question. Now? I have no comment. The current crime index for Toronto is just below 44, vs below 32 in 2012 (the scale is from 0 to 100 but idk if it's supposed to be linear or not), so if anything Toronto is about halfway between "safest" and "most dangerous". Of particular interest looking at the 2012 figures, Copenhagen is at 45 (vs. 25 now) and Geneva is at 58 (vs. 30 now). This makes me doubt the validity of those numbers as I find it hard to believe any part of Denmark or Switzerland was ever as dangerous as present day Toronto or Chicago, but on the flip side, whenever I feel like raging about the rising crime in Toronto, I try to cheer myself up by telling myself "at least Toronto is safer now than Copenhagen in 2012 or New York in the 1980s!".

 

[Northern Light]

15–20 years ago? Yes, without question. Now? I have no comment. The current crime index for Toronto is just below 44, vs below 32 in 2012 (the scale is from 0 to 100 but idk if it's supposed to be linear or not), so if anything Toronto is about halfway between "safest" and "most dangerous". Of particular interest looking at the 2012 figures, Copenhagen is at 45 (vs. 25 now) and Geneva is at 58 (vs. 30 now). This makes me doubt the validity of those numbers as I find it hard to believe any part of Denmark or Switzerland was ever as dangerous as present day Toronto or Chicago, but on the flip side, whenever I feel like raging about the rising crime in Toronto, I try to cheer myself up by telling myself "at least Toronto is safer now than Copenhagen in 2012 or New York in the 1980s!".

The Crime Index you link to isn't real............. its not based on actual crimes committed. Its based on people's perception of crime in the City.

Stick to hard statistics and facts. Not made up stuff please.

Toronto - 19 homicides year to date

Chicago - 289 homicides year to date.

Not comparable.

 

[Richard White]

Ok....this over-the-top stuff needs to end on all sides.

Toronto is one of the safest cities on the planet.

We aren't Chicago or Baltimore but we can agree to disagree.

I see the news, we all do. With all the crack addicts running around, homeless wandering about and wannabe gangsters toting concealed weapons I don't feel safe in Toronto.

It's all about perspective. If you eliminate known issues like the Middle East, Central America, Russia and North Korea we are right up there with America.

We are only one of the safest because other countries take human rights and laws as suggestions.

Compared to Europe, Australia, Antarctica and parts of Asia we aren't that safe.

 

[Northern Light]

We aren't Chicago or Baltimore but we can agree to disagree.

No we can't

Because there is only one set of facts. And you must agree to them.

If you have proof that the police are hiding bodies in your basement, please provide that.............

I see the news, we all do. With all the crack addicts running around, homeless wandering about and wannabe gangsters toting concealed weapons I don't feel safe in Toronto.

Then you're wrong.

It's all about perspective. If you eliminate known issues like the Middle East, Central America, Russia and North Korea we are right up there with America.

No we are not. I just posted the actual homicide numbers, how much clearer can we be on the real facts?

London, UK - population 8.95M ( a bit over double Toronto's) - 41 homicides year to date.

Berlin - 2024 - full year -- 53 homicides (we're pacing for 35)

Compared to Europe, Australia, Antarctica and parts of Asia we aren't that safe.

Not accurate.

The Toronto homicide rate is currently below than of New Zealand, Paris France,

While our homicide rate is certainly higher than Tokyo or Singapore (whose is not?) its also substantially lower than Delhi

 

[Northern Light]

I wish I knew where to find such data (no luck so far), that webpage was the best I could find, and I check it regularly.

For Toronto, here you go:

Toronto Police Service Public Safety Data Portal

The Toronto Police Service Public Safety Data Portal provides police open data, data analytic and web map applications to the public to improve the understanding of policing, improve transparency and enhance confidence through open data.

data.torontopolice.on.ca

Data updated weekly.

Here's the weekly sheet from ComStat (NYPD)

https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

 

[wopchop]

I see the news, we all do. With all the crack addicts running around, homeless wandering about and wannabe gangsters toting concealed weapons I don't feel safe in Toronto.

And you think the news is providing an accurate picture of crime levels? It is just highlighting specific incidents, in effect sensationalizing them. This can increase your perception of crime but does not necessarily mean that crime has increased or is increasing.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Putting methodological issues aside (e.g. proportion of crime being reported, etc) - I think using homicide alone is a poor proxy of "crime" - it is the most visible but often irrelevant indicator. I'd be more concerned about things like changes in proportion of criminal acts committed with use of weapons; proportion of unsolved crimes; proportion of crimes committed by repeat offenders, etc.

AoD

 

[Northern Light]

Putting methodological issues aside (e.g. proportion of crime being reported, etc) - I think using homicide alone is a poor proxy of "crime" - it is the most visible but often irrelevant indicator. I'd be more concerned about things like changes in proportion of criminal acts committed with use of weapons; proportion of unsolved crimes; proportion of crimes committed by repeat offenders, etc.

AoD

A lot of that is available at the link I provided:

Toronto Police Service Public Safety Data Portal

The Toronto Police Service Public Safety Data Portal provides police open data, data analytic and web map applications to the public to improve the understanding of policing, improve transparency and enhance confidence through open data.

data.torontopolice.on.ca

If you click through, these are your options:

In general, the stats provided are solid give you 5 years of history to compare.

One limitation, however is they don't include rates per capita, so a climb in numbers, when population is also rising should really be adjusted.

Also there is no indexing feature for 'Theft Over'.

The MCI summary looks like this:

All numbers are year to date, as per the date in the bottom right hand corner. The previous year data is adjusted to the identical date.

The 10-year version is under Historical and is not updated as frequently.

Looking at the 10-year, I'll use the global numbers (lower left) to show 'rate'

2014 - 32,461 - population 2,800,000 - Rate: 1,159 per 100,000 people

2024 - 47, 308 - population 3,200,000 - Rate 1,478 per 100,000

Here's Shootings/Firearm discharged - 5-year:

So the above shows we are pacing for about 260 or so for full year. Based on the below, that would be the lowest since 2015. When factoring in population growth its historically near the bottom.

 

[lenaitch]

Putting methodological issues aside (e.g. proportion of crime being reported, etc) - I think using homicide alone is a poor proxy of "crime" - it is the most visible but often irrelevant indicator. I'd be more concerned about things like changes in proportion of criminal acts committed with use of weapons; proportion of unsolved crimes; proportion of crimes committed by repeat offenders, etc.

AoD

Some or all of that is available either from the TPS portal or Statscan.

 

[lenaitch]

Watch 'Data, data, data. I cannot make bricks without clay.' | Sherlock Holmes Clip

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[picard102]

15–20 years ago? Yes, without question. Now?

Yes, without question.

 

[kEiThZ]

Toronto - 19 homicides year to date

Chicago - 289 homicides year to date.

Not comparable.

Agree on violent crime. How's property crime doing? Not getting killed is kinda the bare minimum most people expect from a place.

Also, this is kinda the typical Canadian feel good comparison against a second rate American stat. Can we do better than comparing to the D student in the class?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Compared to Europe, Australia and parts of Asia we aren't that safe.

I agree. I don’t want to rig our results by comparing Toronto to US cities, but to other non-US G7 cities.

I see the news, we all do. With all the crack addicts running around, homeless wandering about and

It has be hurting police recruitment to see one’s city beset by petty and more serious crimes and the TPS (or bylaw enforcement) just roll on past. Last I checked, public intoxication, drug use and possession, obstruction, roadside begging/soliciting, littering, graffiti, vandalism, and encampments are against the law. But you’d never know it in Toronto.

 

[Northern Light]

Agree on violent crime. How's property crime doing?

You can see the Toronto Stats. options in this post:

PM Mark Carney's Canada

Let's take a Pole? 🥁 Does anyone else feel that the mood on this forum trends towards raging, venting and gloom. Mihairokov, when you got all that soap boxing off your chest, did you feel any better? Better, not worse is how you want to feel when you close down the page, IMO. I for one...

urbantoronto.ca

There are lots of different property crimes, of those listed in the post, I'm happy to bring forward the details for any you would prefer, though all of them would be a bit much.

Comparisons to other jurisdictions, as noted below are possible, but the smaller the crime the more variable the definitions and data. Easiest with Homicides /Shootings.

But I can look for other data points if one is of particularly interest.

Also, this is kinda the typical Canadian feel good comparison against a second rate American stat. Can we do better than comparing to the D student in the class?

I Included comparisons to Paris, France and Berlin in various posts above.