PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

[yrt+viva=1system]

Immigration along with the housing problem will be the sword that the Liberals may die on. I wonder how long until Canadians start noticing the impact that their children aren't able to land a summer job or part time job due to hyper immigration fulfilling the part-time and entry level jobs and housing will never be affordable. This will easily play into the Conservatives hand if the Liberals are not careful. I honestly think the Liberals have opened Pandora's box and do not know what to do or what will be the consequences.

https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2023/canada-new-immigrants-consequences/

Canada undoubtedly needs immigration, but post-secondary education and labour market policies are so interconnected that attention must be paid to the effect of an increase of a million new permanent residents. More enforcement against immigration scams, particularly aimed at post-secondary students, and the over-reliance of those institutions on foreign students should be deterred. The implications of more migrants on a housing market, particularly in specific cities, means a need for more careful planning. All of this suggests that these new immigration targets cannot be viewed as merely an issue of welcoming more faces. It requires careful planning, which to date does not appear to be happening.

 

[Sunnyside]

Immigration along with the housing problem will be the sword that the Liberals may die on. I wonder how long until Canadians start noticing the impact that their children aren't able to land a summer job or part time job due to hyper immigration fulfilling the part-time and entry level jobs and housing will never be affordable. This will easily play into the Conservatives hand if the Liberals are not careful. I honestly think the Liberals have opened Pandora's box and do not know what to do or what will be the consequences.

https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2023/canada-new-immigrants-consequences/

I think they don't have a choice. This is the economy they have been trying to build, and it exists now. What is the alternative? How much of our planned economic growth now predicates on rapid population growth? What happens to the Liberals if they somehow actually slow immigration and housing costs actually go down? Not only is it a terrible look for the efficacy of Liberal policy, but it would also tank what is now a large cornerstone sector of the economy... They're backed into a corner. Hell, we may all be backed into a corner. Pandora's box is very apt.

 

[Northern Light]

I think they don't have a choice. This is the economy they have been trying to build, and it exists now. What is the alternative? How much of our planned economic growth now predicates on rapid population growth? What happens to the Liberals if they somehow actually slow immigration and housing costs actually go down? Not only is it a terrible look for the efficacy of Liberal policy, but it would also tank what is now a large cornerstone sector of the economy... They're backed into a corner. Hell, we may all be backed into a corner. Pandora's box is very apt.

Of course they have a choice.

People are already feeling the pain and seeing a decline in quality of life; the status quo plan, as currently laid out is a failure.

Will changing things result in pain; yes, absolutely, but so will attempting to stay the course.

Time to shift.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think they don't have a choice. This is the economy they have been trying to build, and it exists now. What is the alternative? How much of our planned economic growth now predicates on rapid population growth? What happens to the Liberals if they somehow actually slow immigration and housing costs actually go down? Not only is it a terrible look for the efficacy of Liberal policy, but it would also tank what is now a large cornerstone sector of the economy... They're backed into a corner. Hell, we may all be backed into a corner. Pandora's box is very apt.

You might be right that we're backed into a corner. But also, none of this is sustainable. It will break eventually, one way or another.

 

[Sunnyside]

Of course they have a choice.

People are already feeling the pain and seeing a decline in quality of life; the status quo plan, as currently laid out is a failure.

Will changing things result in pain; yes, absolutely, but so will attempting to stay the course.

Time to shift.

Oh, change is certainly needed. I moreso meant that by making that decision, the Liberals are going to lose support en masse due to the economic fallout, which leaves the only alternative of staying on the set course- at least that way they can pretend everything is okay. The choice is between sacrificing near-term political prospects and doing what is right for Canadians, or attempting to hold things together a little longer at everyone's expense. I think they have no reason to not take the selfish option, else things would have changed already.

 

[Sunnyside]

You might be right that we're backed into a corner. But also, none of this is sustainable. It will break eventually, one way or another.

The Liberals are staying on this path only because they don't want to be seen as responsible for a crash or recession when it does break. By extension, they certainly won't want to be the ones to do it. Damned if they do something, damned if they don't. And it's easier to do nothing.

 

[kamira51]

Still waiting on that electoral reform he's promised like three times?

What a joke.

 

[jje1000]

Fundamental economic mismatch:
- Employees want jobs with proper security, living wages/support, and flexibility
- Employers are not willing to pay what the free market demands, and instead whine about the lack of 'qualified individuals'
- Immigration is instead increased to fulfil these positions (re: our new indentured working class).

'Not a simple story': Labour shortages aren't being driven by lack of highly educated job seekers​

Shortages appear to be mostly centred in jobs requiring little education

Labour shortages in Canada appear to be mostly centred in jobs requiring little education, while employers finding it difficult to fill positions requiring higher levels of education probably aren’t facing challenges because candidates lack the necessary degrees, suggests a new research paper from Statistics Canada.

The paper, published on May 24, said that for every job vacancy requiring a university degree in the fourth quarter last year, there were at least two unemployed individuals with the necessary degree. In contrast, the study found the number of vacant positions requiring a high school diploma or less has exceeded the number of unemployed Canadians with equivalent education since the third quarter of 2021.

The findings suggest employers’ complaints about a labour crunch cannot, in general, be attributed to a national shortage of highly educated job seekers.

“To administer the proper treatment, you have to come up with the proper diagnosis,” René Morissette, the paper’s author and senior economist at Statistics Canada, said.

In 2022, the number of job vacancies in Canada averaged 942,000, about two-and-a-half times the average of 377,000 in 2016. To address high vacancies and labour shortages, government officials and businesses often point to immigration as a solution. Indeed, shortages were a key reason behind the federal government’s decision last year to increase immigration targets that aim to bring in 500,000 newcomers annually by 2025.

Morissette’s paper states that for the 113,000 vacant positions in the fourth quarter last year that required a university degree, there were 227,000 unemployed Canadians and permanent residents that met the education criteria, out of which 123,000 were unemployed immigrants with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

'Not a simple story': Labour shortages aren't being driven by lack of highly educated job seekers

A Statistics Canada study finds complaints about a labour crunch cannot be attributed to a shortage of highly educated job seekers. Read on.

financialpost.com

And it may be moving up the wage tier:

Ontario engineer regulator drops Canadian experience qualification | Globalnews.ca

Professional Engineers Ontario says up to 60 per cent of the licence applicants it reviews every year are internationally trained.

globalnews.ca

Ottawa grants Lululemon waiver from immigration rules on hiring foreign workers

Ottawa has exempted Lululemon from immigration rules to ensure the company keeps and expands its headquarters in Vancouver. Read on.

financialpost.com

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

Trudeau says new housing-based long-term infrastructure plan coming this fall​

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-housing-long-term-infrastructure-1.6856234

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told Canada's mayors Friday that his government will roll out a new long-term infrastructure plan in the fall to boost the stock of affordable housing across the country.

Speaking to the Federation of Canadian Municipalities' Big City Mayors Conference in Toronto, Trudeau said he'd save the details of the plan for the autumn but promised it "will have very direct links to housing."

In February of 2021, Trudeau announced the federal government would spend nearly $15 billion over eight years on public transportation projects. On Friday, he said the incentives behind the infrastructure plan will be similar to those in the transit plan.

"Access to full funding will rely on you coming to the table with concrete and ambitious commitments on how you're going to build more housing to go with more transit," he said.

"This means that, just like the Housing Accelerator Fund, the more ambitious your housing targets, the more generous we'll be able to be in partnering with you."

Why does this seem like another do nothing announcement?

 

[Northern Light]

Poland seems to have a rather more efficient procurement system than Canada.....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/military-procurement-1.6859745

 

[Northern Light]

Great to see the Globe and Mail call out Canadian businesses for being lazy and preferring cheap labour to innovation.

Globe editorial: Canada’s much-touted labour shortage is mostly a mirage

If there’s a shortage of workers, why aren’t wages rising? The reason could be an over-reliance on Ottawa’s temporary foreign workers program

www.theglobeandmail.com

From the above:

****

****

Exactly what I've been saying.

****

The Globe had a really weird idea after that about quotas and exchanges for the rights to TFWs that I frankly find bizarre (and they were doing so well).

Lets just turn the tap off on TFWs for any low-skill, low-wage job and raising the minimum wage by at least $4 per hour over 2 years; the problem will naturally fix itself.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Trudeau says new housing-based long-term infrastructure plan coming this fall​

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-housing-long-term-infrastructure-1.6856234



Why does this seem like another do nothing announcement?

It's so annoying how the Feds do nothing to fix homelessness in this country. With "only" about 300,000 homeless individuals in Canada, It's not an insurmountable issue. Here's what I want Trudeau to do.

• Commit to working with the Provinces to have a plan to eliminate homelessness in Canada by 2030, through:
  • Providing federally-managed and funded housing for any refugees or immigrants (both allowed entry by the Feds) that are without housing, that would otherwise fall upon the municipal emergency shelters.
  • Establish Fed/Prov managed permanent housing for all 300,000 homeless, including group-home, health care managed housing for those with addiction and mental health care needs.
• Long term goal, constitutional amendment guaranteeing right to permanent housing.​

What can this possibly cost? Let's say its $150k per homeless person, or $45 billion. That's a lot considering that the federal government's total revenue in 2023 is estimated to be $413 billion. But the provinces would need to pay a share. And maybe it's a lot less than $150k per person, IDK. Has this been costed out before?

 

[Northern Light]

It's so annoying how the Feds do nothing to fix homelessness in this country. With "only" about 300,000 homeless individuals in Canada, It's not an insurmountable issue. Here's what I want Trudeau to do.

• Commit to working with the Provinces to have a plan to eliminate homelessness in Canada by 2030, through:
  • Providing federally-managed and funded housing for any refugees or immigrants (both allowed entry by the Feds) that are without housing, that would otherwise fall upon the municipal emergency shelters.
  • Establish Fed/Prov managed permanent housing for all 300,000 homeless, including group-home, health care managed housing for those with addiction and mental health care needs.
• Long term goal, constitutional amendment guaranteeing right to permanent housing.​

What can this possibly cost? Let's say its $150k per homeless person, or $45 billion. That's a lot considering that the federal government's total revenue in 2023 is estimated to be $413 billion. But the provinces would need to pay a share. And maybe it's a lot less than $150k per person, IDK. Has this been costed out before?

If there is no land cost, your likely looking at a target construction cost of $250,000 - $350,000 per unit in large urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver.

It will be a bit less costly in some other centres.

Housing within an institutional setting may cost more.

Its likely you're looking at something closer to 90B in capital costs.

Then you have the operating costs. The residual 'rent' to cover basic upkeep, future maintenance, electricity/water etc.

Its entirely do-able with political will, and I'd happily support it, but it certainly would be a substantial commitment.

***

For the kind of unit totals suggested, you're likely needing a bit more money as I expect some land purchases would be required.

 

[afransen]

I suspect getting people into housing will help them become independent once again, so not all 300k would need permanent housing support. Many of those people require addiction and mental health treatment, and that would be more expensive. However these folks are already causing a lot of expense in policing, incarceration and hospitalization so much of it should net out.

Apparently, pharmacare would largely be offset by better health outcomes through drug compliance. I wonder if housing the homeless and treating those with addiction and mental health problems would be similar.

 

[Northern Light]

I suspect getting people into housing will help them become independent once again, so not all 300k would need permanent housing support. Many of those people require addiction and mental health treatment, and that would be more expensive. However these folks are already causing a lot of expense in policing, incarceration and hospitalization so much of it should net out.

Apparently, pharmacare would largely be offset by better health outcomes through drug compliance. I wonder if housing the homeless and treating those with addiction and mental health problems would be similar.

I think it would, but with an asterisk.

The benefits often don't flow right away, at least not in full.

For instance, a study on providing free contraception showed immediate savings from fewer abortions, and fewer unwanted children. But savings in child benefits/social assistance among other things are cumulative over a generation.

Likewise there are some immediate savings to housing people properly ( its cheaper than the shelter system!) ; but the gains that occur from higher employment, lower crime and better health outcomes accumulate over years. You see some right away, but the full effect takes longer.

All of which is to say, its absolutely the right thing to do, and it absolutely pays off; but there is a net increase in expenditures that lasts several years before diminishing as positive benefits add up.

Just to afford one other example on point.

A 100-bed shelter costs essentially the same to operate at 80% capacity as it does at 100%.

The big savings occurs when you close the shelter entirely. That means at some point after you've built 100++ new housing units (allowing for previously unmet demand and population growth)