News   Oct 21, 2021
 175     0 
News   Oct 20, 2021
 1.2K     1 
News   Oct 20, 2021
 1.5K     2 

PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

AlvinofDiaspar

Moderator
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 22, 2007
Messages
30,646
Reaction score
22,305
Location
Toronto
Not saying it's excusable. Just that it's a sad reality.

To most Canadians, the idea that Canada would an amphibious or aircraft carrier on two coasts, a dozen nuclear subs, a hundred combat aircraft and maybe two dozen attack helicopters would sound utterly insane.

The rest of the world looks at us and knows the only reason we don't have that (and the $30B defence budget required for that), is because we're next door to the US. Countries of our size and economic strength would never skimp this much on defence anywhere else. And Australia is a good example of this. Hawaii is days away from them. And they have China in their neighbourhood and Indonesia next door. They need a credible deterrent.

Geography and distance help reinforce that notion - out of sight, out of mind.

AoD
 

kEiThZ

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Jul 31, 2008
Messages
10,398
Reaction score
4,621
Geography and distance help reinforce that notion - out of sight, out of mind.

AoD

Yep. The average Canuck doesn't understand this. I didn't until I joined the CAF. Alert is actually closer to Moscow than it is to Ottawa. Defending the Arctic would normally mean serious power projection capabilities.

But in my experience, most Canadians have more of a romantic idea of the Arctic than an understanding of the reality that it is distant Canadian territory that we need to protect. Contrast this view to the way the Russians view the Arctic.
 

lenaitch

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Sep 5, 2017
Messages
3,333
Reaction score
3,036
Not directly at the feet of the current PM, because in my opinion they have all been wanting in regards to national security and defence, but it seems that Five Eyes maybe shifting to Three Eyes And a Couple of Hangers-On.

 

kEiThZ

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Jul 31, 2008
Messages
10,398
Reaction score
4,621
Not directly at the feet of the current PM, because in my opinion they have all been wanting in regards to national security and defence, but it seems that Five Eyes maybe shifting to Three Eyes And a Couple of Hangers-On.

Media is stupidly portraying our exclusion as a consequence of the Huawei non-policy. That's wrong. Australia actually brings resources to the table. Canada doesn't.

It'll be interesting when Canada is eventually pushed out of the G7 and Five Eyes and reduced to solely participating in NORAD, NATO and the OECD. Just like other medium sized European countries (like say Poland, a country of similar population).
 

Richard White

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Dec 7, 2015
Messages
4,484
Reaction score
2,724
Location
Scarborough, Ontario
Media is stupidly portraying our exclusion as a consequence of the Huawei non-policy. That's wrong. Australia actually brings resources to the table. Canada doesn't.

It'll be interesting when Canada is eventually pushed out of the G7 and Five Eyes and reduced to solely participating in NORAD, NATO and the OECD. Just like other medium sized European countries (like say Poland, a country of similar population).

I hate to say it but it would us right. To be honest though, I'd be ok with leaving NATO and NORAD.

NATO is a European focused organization while NORAD was designed as an early warning system for a Soviet attack.

I doubt Russia will be launching an invasion of Canada or launching ICBMs at us so let the US fund and control it out of Alaska.

As for NATO, we really have no business being involved in foreign conflicts. We have an "army" with woefully outdated equipment and aren't really up to task at the moment.

Thanks to Article 5 if there is an issue in Europe, we could get dragged into a war that has nothing to do with us. There is no upside to joining NATO from North America.

IMO Canada's standing on the global stage has diminished significantly since the Second World War. We are that country everyone knows exists but pushes aside in favor or the UK, US and EU.

Our global clout is almost non-existant anymore and quite frankly nobody wants to deal with us. If not for the commonwealth, there is a good chance we wouldn't be of any global significance. Why deal with us when you can deal with the US, EU and UK?

The days of countries needing our peacekeepers, our wheat and our natural resources are gone and they aren't coming back. Now people want the rare earth metals from China, Smartphone parts from Korea and diplomacy from the EU.

Over the past 30 years, the focus has gone from North America to the EU and Asia as I said. Canada has been left behind in favor of Pacific Rim countries like Australia and New Zealand which can protect their interests in Asia.

Canada will never get its influence back on the global stage and I wouldn't be surprised if in the next 5 years we were out of the G7 and 5 eyes.
 

kEiThZ

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Jul 31, 2008
Messages
10,398
Reaction score
4,621
I hate to say it but it would us right. To be honest though, I'd be ok with leaving NATO and NORAD.

NATO is a European focused organization while NORAD was designed as an early warning system for a Soviet attack.

I doubt Russia will be launching an invasion of Canada or launching ICBMs at us so let the US fund and control it out of Alaska.

There's an assumption here that organizations don't evolve. NORAD today is about about a lot more than watching for ICBMs coming from Russia.

Thanks to Article 5 if there is an issue in Europe, we could get dragged into a war that has nothing to do with us. There is no upside to joining NATO from North America.

If you think Canada would not be dragged into a war in Europe, I don't know what to say...
 

Richard White

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Dec 7, 2015
Messages
4,484
Reaction score
2,724
Location
Scarborough, Ontario
There's an assumption here that organizations don't evolve. NORAD today is about about a lot more than watching for ICBMs coming from Russia.

Agreed, NORAD does look inward now. On 9/11 they were helping with the response within the US and Canada.

My point was that it is better to focus on internal security and the arctic directly rather than have a joint organization whose primary focus is on airborne threats from the north.

NORAD is more of a US organization with Canada playing a minor role.

If you think Canada would not be dragged into a war in Europe, I don't know what to say...

Honestly, it should be our choice if we want to go to war, not the choice of an international organization. Article 5 when invoked, brings about a joint response to an attack on a member state.

Let's say Russia went and seized Ukraine. Hungary (a NATO member) borders Ukraine and was formerly occupied by the USSR. It was not a member of the Soviet Union but Soviet Troops, Flags and Influence were part of Hungary from WW2 to 1991.

Border skirmishes between Hungary and Russian troops would likely result in Article 5 being invoked. That in turn would mean Canada would be forced to join a military campaign against Russia.

The point I am trying to make is that we should not be getting involved in conflicts we have no business being involved in. NATO was intended to be a defense against the USSR.

NATO should be scrapped in favor of a EU defense force but that is another discussion for another day.
 

kEiThZ

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Jul 31, 2008
Messages
10,398
Reaction score
4,621
NORAD is more of a US organization with Canada playing a minor role.

The alternative to that is the US planning operations over Canadian territory, without Canadian input.

Honestly, it should be our choice if we want to go to war, not the choice of an international organization. Article 5 when invoked, brings about a joint response to an attack on a member state.

It is precisely the heft of NATO that makes it credible. Members start to leave and Russia gets emboldened, making serious conflict that could draw in Canada, or at least hurt our security and economic interests substantially.

You make a typical case for the isolationist point of view. And I've heard it before. I disagree that a G7 country can simply sit by and avoid any and all foreign conflict without any impact at all. But at least if that is the desire or viewpoint, I wish those espousing it were more honest about what it means for our global standing. We get stuff like "Canada is back" rhetoric while the rest of the world snickers or rolls their eyes anytime we walk into the room. We should stop strutting around and pretending we're a global player.
 

lenaitch

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Sep 5, 2017
Messages
3,333
Reaction score
3,036
Agreed, NORAD does look inward now. On 9/11 they were helping with the response within the US and Canada.

My point was that it is better to focus on internal security and the arctic directly rather than have a joint organization whose primary focus is on airborne threats from the north.

NORAD is more of a US organization with Canada playing a minor role.
The alternative is building, maintaining, staffing, upgrading, etc. the surveillance infrastructure (land-based, space based, etc.), and then formulating whatever necessary response, completely on our own dime. Statements like 'Russia will never attack us' misses the point. There is a need to know and have a say in what goes on in the space we call ours; no different that why we lock our doors and have CBSA folks at the border.

Without sharing what we know about the goings-on in our space with US, they will take it upon themselves to find out because we are their entire northern flank that they will not leave unprotected, whether we like it or not.
 

Northern Light

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
May 20, 2007
Messages
14,969
Reaction score
29,300
Location
Toronto/EY
Media is stupidly portraying our exclusion as a consequence of the Huawei non-policy. That's wrong. Australia actually brings resources to the table. Canada doesn't.

It'll be interesting when Canada is eventually pushed out of the G7 and Five Eyes and reduced to solely participating in NORAD, NATO and the OECD. Just like other medium sized European countries (like say Poland, a country of similar population).

We're not going out of the G7, assuming anything like it survives into the future.
We're the fastest growing country in the G7.
We'll overtake Italy in population in the next 25 years assuming status quo growth/shrink rates in those respective countries
Italy's official population projection for 2050 is 54M people (-6M from today)

Canada has a range (mid to high growth) that puts between 49M-56M based on 2019 numbers; but worth saying, we're tracking above the high number, even with the pandemic.
 

kEiThZ

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Jul 31, 2008
Messages
10,398
Reaction score
4,621
We're not going out of the G7, assuming anything like it survives into the future.

We just saw the US, UK and Australia create a new tier inside the Five Eyes.

I anticipate the same thing will happen to the G7. Some alternative will emerge where the actual players discuss issues. And the posers will keep attending the G7 to help their leaders at home.
 

Lennox970

New Member
Member Bio
Joined
Jul 13, 2019
Messages
29
Reaction score
19
This is a very interesting and enlightening discussion. An English friend of mine is really hoping that a 4 Eyes security pact will come to fruition with Canada playing a key role. Not a chance. I think the latest AUKUS agreement has side-lined us in the same fashion as NZ. We have the same dependent relationship with the US as NZ does with Australia and do not really bring any real capability - 'added value' - to the table. The fact that the RCN was left with no AORs and effectively became a coast guard by pure mismanagement (only saved by an Admiral who had the gumption to do something about it) must've been a wake up call to the serious players. We may never punch above our weight, but we should never punch below it.

I guess the key question is, what security arrangements do we require as a nation? OK, geo-politically we are safely tucked into America's side. But what of our wider interests, business and diplomatic across the globe? Cyber security?
 

AlbertC

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 24, 2007
Messages
15,473
Reaction score
32,251
Location
Davenport

Top