Pickering Airport (Transport Canada/GTAA, Proposed)

[jzair]

ANA, a Star Alliance carrier, is most certainly not moving to an airport without its Canadian Star Alliance partner. At least not voluntarily.

Of course, and that's why I said once ANA comes to Pearson, slot constraints are even tighter. I did not say ANA will come to Hamilton or Pickering, that would be a disastrous decision.

As demand grows for the Pearson slots, we could see discount carriers like Sunwing and Air Transat head for Hamilton or Pickering.

Correct, this is precisely the role of the new airports. By definition, fleeing out of Pearson and using other airside facilities is relieving Pearson due to addition capacity growth.

This is a strawman you came up with

This was an accurate real life example (AC Jazz IAH - YYZ) with a LF probably in the 50-60% and you've previously propose replacing these flights with 110-130 seaters. Not trying to say this is the wrong way to solve slot issues but there are examples when this simply doesn't make sense for airlines.

 

[micheal_can]

What is the difference between Thunder Bay and Sudbury? About 1000km. Sudbury to Toronto is an easy 4 hour drive. You don't need to fly in from Sudbury if you are going on vacation. Thunder Bay is too fare to be reasonable. So, unless you want to do the 6-7 hour drive to Winnipeg, good flights to major centres are needed.

 

[kEiThZ]

once ANA comes to Pearson

If ANA comes to Pearson. Joint ventures are a thing. There's no need for ANA to come here to facilitate traffic to Japan. So it may well be ANA and AC trading slots.

This was an accurate real life example (AC Jazz IAH - YYZ) with a LF probably in the 50-60% and you've previously propose replacing these flights with 110-130 seaters.

Like I said, this is a strawman. I would be wrong if AC had just one flight a day to Houston. If they have multiple flights a day, they can boost LF by using fewer flights with slightly larger aircraft or smaller aircraft with the same number of flights. A lower load factor indicates sub-optimization. Either too many flights or too large aircraft. With six flights a day to Houston between JV partner UA and AC, I'd say frequency is not the issue.

Not trying to say this is the wrong way to solve slot issues but there are examples when this simply doesn't make sense for airlines.

The only time this is true is when demand is less than 150 PDEW so that you can't do less than two Q400s or three Dash-8s. There's very few routes out of Pearson where that is the case. You see this Ottawa-London for example with three fifty seaters per day.

 

[jzair]

If ANA comes to Pearson

ANA is rumoured to come to YYZ in the near future. https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1420453
Bringing up ANA is just an example of the increasing Asian carriers that are coming in recent years (HU, CZ, CX increasing flights, etc.). This simply illustrates the attractiveness of the YYZ location for O/D and also connecting flights. We don't have to debate on how ANA will show its presence.

Bottom line is, there is a limit to pax serviced per year by an airport and the available slots. We can only compress the number of flights so much before you start to see negative effects and so finding that balance point can be difficult.

 

[kEiThZ]

What is the difference between Thunder Bay and Sudbury? About 1000km. Sudbury to Toronto is an easy 4 hour drive. You don't need to fly in from Sudbury if you are going on vacation. Thunder Bay is too fare to be reasonable. So, unless you want to do the 6-7 hour drive to Winnipeg, good flights to major centres are needed.

Anybody willing to drive to Toronto is fare sensitive, not schedule sensitive. Most of these people are probably already driving to Toronto.

AC will do the same as Thunder Bay to Sudbury if the math works out right for them.

 

[kEiThZ]

Bottom line is, there is a limit to pax serviced per year by an airport and the available slots. We can only compress the number of flights so much before you start to see negative effects and so finding that balance point can be difficult.

A limit on slots is not the same as a limit on passengers. And that's my point. Pearson is slot constrained. Not pax constrained. And we have a long way to go before it really gets pax constrained. Clearlyf airlines can afford to fill those slots with 19 and 37 seaters, they aren't all that valuable.

 

[kEiThZ]

If Trudeau wins this trend of consolidation and upgauging is really going to ramp up. $50/tonne carbon tax in 2022. Nobody is going to want to fly any airplane with less than 50 seats if they can help it.

 

[TransitBart]

If Trudeau wins this trend of consolidation and upgauging is really going to ramp up. $50/tonne carbon tax in 2022. Nobody is going to want to fly any airplane with less than 50 seats if they can help it.

Has any airline commented on this in an annual report? It makes sense, but I have read nothing of it. Any airline that buys fuel in Canada is paying, no?

 

[micheal_can]

A limit on slots is not the same as a limit on passengers. And that's my point. Pearson is slot constrained. Not pax constrained. And we have a long way to go before it really gets pax constrained. Clearlyf airlines can afford to fill those slots with 19 and 37 seaters, they aren't all that valuable.

This is all the more reason to either upgrade Hamilton or build Pickering. Having a regional airport to take the pressure off Pearson that is connected to it by rail would go a long way to relieving the slots.

One thing I wonder has to do with Red Eyes. I notice that between midnight and about 6am, there isn't much traffic in or out. I wonder if Pearson could truly become a 24 hour operation. Especially for those overseas flights, this might relieve the slot constraint till a true regional airport can be created in the GTA.

 

[lenaitch]

This is all the more reason to either upgrade Hamilton or build Pickering. Having a regional airport to take the pressure off Pearson that is connected to it by rail would go a long way to relieving the slots.

One thing I wonder has to do with Red Eyes. I notice that between midnight and about 6am, there isn't much traffic in or out. I wonder if Pearson could truly become a 24 hour operation. Especially for those overseas flights, this might relieve the slot constraint till a true regional airport can be created in the GTA.

There are noise abatement rules (although I admittedly don't know any of their fine details). I also understand that some new subdivisions have covenants tied to the titles that stipulate that the owners know they are in an airport noise catchment area. Depending on the terms, changing times or flight frequencies might be an issue. I would think there also has to be a demand for taking off at 3am, depending on where the flight is terminating.

 

[kEiThZ]

Has any airline commented on this in an annual report? It makes sense, but I have read nothing of it. Any airline that buys fuel in Canada is paying, no?

Haven't checked financials but they most certainly are talking about it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/airlines-carbon-tax-1.4870808

 

[kEiThZ]

This is all the more reason to either upgrade Hamilton or build Pickering. Having a regional airport to take the pressure off Pearson that is connected to it by rail would go a long way to relieving the slots.

I keep harping on this cause people don't get it. No airline is splitting traffic voluntarily. As such there's already a regional reliever airport: the Island. Porter operates to all the regional destinations we are talking about here. And often with as many or more seats than AC and often more frequencies.

Any expansion in Hamilton or new airport in Pickering is about adding medium and long haul. Those 19, 37 and 50 seaters are doomed. Just a matter of time.

The regional jets are particularly bad. The 78 seat Q400 turboprop and the 50 seat CRJ200 regional jet have similar operating costs. Negligible differences in travel time for routes less than 800km. Airlines look at that and decide it's worth the extra flight attendant to add 28 seats of upside for no other increase in operating costs. And if they can use the Q400 to consolidate some 37 and 50 seaters even better.

 

[MarkBrooks]

Hallelujah, the GTAA just called uncle on capacity. This discussion just got real.

SOMAC announced, GTAA joins voices calling for Pickering Airport. - Friends of Pickering Airport

Print 🖨 PDF 📄 eBook 📱On May 27th, 2019, at a Toronto Region Board of Trade event, the municipal leaders of Southern Ontario came together to solve a problem. After a short video message from the Honorable Marc Garneau, federal Minister of Transport, Howard Eng, CEO of the GTAA (Greater Toronto...

pickeringairport.org

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Hallelujah, the GTAA just called uncle on capacity. This discussion just got real.

SOMAC announced, GTAA joins voices calling for Pickering Airport. - Friends of Pickering Airport

Print 🖨 PDF 📄 eBook 📱On May 27th, 2019, at a Toronto Region Board of Trade event, the municipal leaders of Southern Ontario came together to solve a problem. After a short video message from the Honorable Marc Garneau, federal Minister of Transport, Howard Eng, CEO of the GTAA (Greater Toronto...

pickeringairport.org

Wow. With the GTAA on board this is much more likely to happen. I hope it has a rail link from day 1.

 

[MarkBrooks]

Wow. With the GTAA on board this is much more likely to happen. I hope it has a rail link from day 1.

Working on the rail link, definitely needed both for fuel and passenger access!