News   Jul 12, 2024
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Pickering Airport (Transport Canada/GTAA, Proposed)

no reason why the cant shift those slots from domestic to more profitable international routes.
Or you could use the same plane for two flights like they do with the ones that fly from Toronto to Sydney via Vancouver. The plane lands in the domestic terminal in Vancouver and the Sydney bound passengers stay in the gate area well the plane is serviced for the Sydney bound flight, upon return to Canada it means a long walk to customs and a long walk back to the gate
 
I've noticed on 2 routes that I use to take a lot for work from Toronto: Thunder Bay and Quebec City. AC has switched from Q400's to some sort of Rouge
Airbus. I haven't checked the Thunder Bay schedule but I know for sure they offer less daily flights to Quebec City now.

They cut frequencies to Thunder Bay in half. From 6 to 3, while adding seats. They went from six Q400s (468 total seats) to two Rouge A321s and one Jazz CRJ-900 (476 total seats). If they swap the CRJ for another A321, that would add 124 seats.

Yes, the squeeze is on for bigger AIrcraft into the existing constrained slots ( air Canada had 56% of Pearson slots before the Air Transat purchase). no reason why the cant shift those slots from domestic to more profitable international routes. Good for the shareholders, but bad reducing local travel choices.

There's really no great shortage of "local travel choices".

I would Expect domestic ticket prices to trend up as the squeeze takes hold, in line with urban strategies report on the topic.

This assertion is based on the false assumption that a reduction in frequencies means a reduction in the number of seats offered. As Thunder Bay shows above, this doesn't have to be the case. And prices are largely a function of the number of seats offered compared to demand.
 
It’s a golden age for air Canada, with domination over Toronto Pearson, and assuming the Air Transat deal goes through, they can choke competition over a 1/3 of Canadians travelers.
With the new players held at bay by the lack of slots and pressure on the ticket prices, only the rich can fly. Everyone else gets to drive for hours to buffalo or Hamilton .

If by some miracle this billion dollar monopoly can talk the feds into sitting on Pickering even longer, it is time to buy air Canada stock. It’s going to be a rocket ship into orbit for investors!
 
If by some miracle this billion dollar monopoly can talk the feds into sitting on Pickering even longer, it is time to buy air Canada stock. It’s going to be a rocket ship into orbit for investors!
With excess passenger capacity at Hamilton, that makes no sense.

There's no need for passenger capacity in Pickering at this time.
 
It’s a golden age for air Canada, with domination over Toronto Pearson, and assuming the Air Transat deal goes through, they can choke competition over a 1/3 of Canadians travelers.
With the new players held at bay by the lack of slots and pressure on the ticket prices, only the rich can fly. Everyone else gets to drive for hours to buffalo or Hamilton .

If by some miracle this billion dollar monopoly can talk the feds into sitting on Pickering even longer, it is time to buy air Canada stock. It’s going to be a rocket ship into orbit for investors!
Pickering Space Port? Now that's an idea.
 
It’s a golden age for air Canada, with domination over Toronto Pearson, and assuming the Air Transat deal goes through, they can choke competition over a 1/3 of Canadians travelers.

Equating total marketshare with traffic at Pearson is deceptive.

With the new players held at bay by the lack of slots and pressure on the ticket prices, only the rich can fly.

Raise ticket prices that much and their planes will go empty and will incentivize foreign carriers to setup in Hamilton.

Also, lack of slots doesn't mean a new airport is necessary. Can always mandate a cut of AC's slots to increase competition.
 
I'd love to see data on the average number of passengers per departure at Pearson and compare to other large hubs.

I suspect Pearson flies smaller aircraft on average than a lot of peers.
 
I'd love to see data on the average number of passengers per departure at Pearson and compare to other large hubs.

I suspect Pearson flies smaller aircraft on average than a lot of peers.

Perhaps I'm missing something, but wouldn't you be able to (roughly) achieve that by taking the reported passenger count and dividing by movements?

It's not perfect as you pickup freight movements which have zero passengers but I expect it's close enough.

Atlanta: 122
Beijing: 170
O'Hare: 96
Denver: 112
London: 168
Amsterdam: 138
Shanghai: 148
Paris: 149
Frankfurt: 146
Pearson: 108

 
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Lets fast forward about 20 years. Montreal finally has an MLB game, the Leafs still haven't won a cup, but, the new Pickering International Airport is open and has lots of flights to and from it.

From our small cities, like Thunder Bay, Timmins, Sudbury,, London ON, etc, are we still flying to Pearson, or now Pickering, or both? Is Porter still operating out of the Island airport? How do these 3 airports operate? How do the major Canadian carriers operate in the GTA?
 
Lets fast forward about 20 years. Montreal finally has an MLB game, the Leafs still haven't won a cup, but, the new Pickering International Airport is open and has lots of flights to and from it.

From our small cities, like Thunder Bay, Timmins, Sudbury,, London ON, etc, are we still flying to Pearson, or now Pickering, or both? Is Porter still operating out of the Island airport? How do these 3 airports operate? How do the major Canadian carriers operate in the GTA?
Some good questions. Porter hits the wall 2024 at City, by 2035 it has seen a decade of no movement growth. It is now a specialty airport for those willing to pay the price to fly into/ out of downtown.
Pearson has kicked out anything less that 100 seats, and with the exception of a few grandfathered in players. It’s a international Hub with connectivity to only a few major Canadian cities.
Everything else is flying into Pickering due to its location and access to services and the downtown core , as you would expect of a regional reliever airport. Hamilton and Waterloo are servicing their own local passenger catchment areas.

Of special note for Pickering will be the lack of congestion and ability to handle the new 50 seat regional electric ( or electric hybrid ) jets. It should created a boom in cheap high frequency connectivity with smaller Canadian communities such as thunderbay, Timmons, Sudbury,

One look at the trend at at passengers per aircraft and growth at Pearson over the last 20 years tells you where the numbers are going.
652A153F-74BF-4E1C-85D3-36AA044581DE.jpeg
 
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Lets fast forward about 20 years. Montreal finally has an MLB game, the Leafs still haven't won a cup, but, the new Pickering International Airport is open and has lots of flights to and from it.

From our small cities, like Thunder Bay, Timmins, Sudbury,, London ON, etc, are we still flying to Pearson, or now Pickering, or both? Is Porter still operating out of the Island airport? How do these 3 airports operate? How do the major Canadian carriers operate in the GTA?

There are multiple ways to organize operations in a multiple airport city. Separate by Domestic/International, Short Haul/Long Haul, Airline alliances, Full feature/Low cost, etc, etc, etc.

There's really no way to predict how things will be done in Toronto. However given Air Canada's dominance at Pearson it may be separated by alliances. Star Alliance at Pearson and One World or Sky Team at Pickering.
 
There are multiple ways to organize operations in a multiple airport city. Separate by Domestic/International, Short Haul/Long Haul, Airline alliances, Full feature/Low cost, etc, etc, etc.

There's really no way to predict how things will be done in Toronto. However given Air Canada's dominance at Pearson it may be separated by alliances. Star Alliance at Pearson and One World or Sky Team at Pickering.
The way it is trending right now is full service at Pearson, a lot of short haul flights at Billy Bishop, and budget at Hamilton. Pickering nowhere to be seen.
 
Some good questions. Porter hits the wall 2024 at City, by 2035 it has seen a decade of no movement growth. It is now a specialty airport for those willing to pay the price to fly into/ out of downtown.
Pearson has kicked out anything less that 100 seats, and with the exception of a few grandfathered in players. It’s a international Hub with connectivity to only a few major Canadian cities.
Everything else is flying into Pickering due to its location and access to services and the downtown core , as you would expect of a regional reliever airport. Hamilton and Waterloo are servicing their own local passenger catchment areas.

Of special note for Pickering will be the lack of congestion and ability to handle the new 50 seat regional electric ( or electric hybrid ) jets. It should created a boom in cheap high frequency connectivity with smaller Canadian communities such as thunderbay, Timmons, Sudbury,

One look at the trend at at passengers per aircraft and growth at Pearson over the last 20 years tells you where the numbers are going.View attachment 195345

I love these types of graphs. They make you think things are going to skyrocket, when in reality, the growth prior is most likely going to continue.

With what you are saying about porter, it sounds like they will pull operations from the island. That means that airport will close, or become a general aviation airport.
 
I love these types of graphs. They make you think things are going to skyrocket, when in reality, the growth prior is most likely going to continue.

With what you are saying about porter, it sounds like they will pull operations from the island. That means that airport will close, or become a general aviation airport.

The opposite. Porter has 85% of the slots at Billy Bishop and they love it! But Air Canada’s constant opposition and political pressure means that its a stretch to put jets into billy.

Here is AirCanadas statement on the jets at the island and yes Porter is still seriously pissed with the federal Liberals support of AirCanada.


The funny part is that the press thinks it was the NoJets TO “citizens” group that did the convincing.

So Porter maxes out the island with turbo props providing downtown service but runs its CSeries jets to longer routes from Pickering, makes perfect sense. Billy remains a boutique airport, Pickering becomes the main domestic, everything to everyone player. Pearson maxes out Heathrow style.
 

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