Ottawa Transit Developments

[gweed123]

The money to fund Ford's tax cuts and to balance the budget has to come from somewhere. Transit projects are very vulnerable as they don't affect current public service jobs.

If phase 2 does not go ahead, the city of Ottawa is screwed. Phase 1 is a minimal system and does not offer a lot to commuters.

In the post Bill Davis era, Conservatives have had a reputation of screwing cities. Ottawa voters were already very leery of Doug Ford. If he reneges, expect the PCs to get even fewer votes in the next election in Ottawa.

I wouldn't say it's toast, I would just say that the City needs to find a way to remove $1B worth of projects from the scope. I would start with the extensions to areas that voted PC in the last election. That would mean the extension to Ottawa South, Moodie (stop at Bayshore), and the Baseline BRT would be scrapped. Elections have consequences (and I say this as a former resident of Ottawa West-Nepean).

 

[lrt's friend]

I wouldn't say it's toast, I would just say that the City needs to find a way to remove $1B worth of projects from the scope. I would start with the extensions to areas that voted PC in the last election. That would mean the extension to Ottawa South, Moodie (stop at Bayshore), and the Baseline BRT would be scrapped. Elections have consequences (and I say this as a former resident of Ottawa West-Nepean).

Extending LRT to Trim Road and forgetting south and west extensions does not do much for Ottawa. It almost becomes a total waste of the money.

 

[gweed123]

Extending LRT to Trim Road and forgetting south and west extensions does not do much for Ottawa. It almost becomes a total waste of the money.

What I'm proposing be included in the 'slimmed-down' scenario would be this:

• Confederation Line East extension to Trim Rd
• Confederation Line West extensions to Bayshore and Baseline
• Trillium Line South extension to the Airport

So under this scenario, Moodie gets chopped, Riverside South gets chopped, and the Baseline BRT gets chopped. I don't know whether that's enough to add up to $1 billion, but it may come close.

It may also be worthwhile for the Feds to come in and promise a little bit more, given that the ridings those projects are in are ones they need to hold/gain in order to stay in power. "We're picking up the slack because Doug Ford dropped the ball" may work well for them in those areas.

 

[lrt's friend]

What I'm proposing be included in the 'slimmed-down' scenario would be this:

• Confederation Line East extension to Trim Rd
• Confederation Line West extensions to Bayshore and Baseline
• Trillium Line South extension to the Airport

So under this scenario, Moodie gets chopped, Riverside South gets chopped, and the Baseline BRT gets chopped. I don't know whether that's enough to add up to $1 billion, but it may come close.

It may also be worthwhile for the Feds to come in and promise a little bit more, given that the ridings those projects are in are ones they need to hold/gain in order to stay in power. "We're picking up the slack because Doug Ford dropped the ball" may work well for them in those areas.

The Trim Road extension and airport spur are the lowest priority projects and the city is not investing in them for good reason.

Cutting Moodie extension means there is no place to store Phase 2 trains. That is where the train storage facility will be.

Cutting the Riverside South extension means we should cancel Trillium Line Phase 2 entirely. Instead, we will need to invest money in road expansion. Where that money comes from, I don't know.

Cutting the Baseline BRT, which has unknown status anyways, eliminates the missing cross-town link that really is the only new transit that we will be building.

Without provincial support, nothing will be built. The federal government will not provide funding for a project that the province will not fund.

 

[JasonParis]

I'm not an Ottawa expert by any means, but I'm just curious why an airport extension would be so low priority?

 

[lrt's friend]

I'm not an Ottawa expert by any means, but I'm just curious why an airport extension would be so low priority?

MacDonald-Cartier Airport is not Pearson. Not nearly the number of travellers.

The bigger issue is the planned design. In my opinion, it is white elephant project. To reach downtown hotels, travellers need to transfer twice. The big weakness of the Trillium LIne is that it is single tracked. Already, trains cannot run at full speed, because they keep having to move off onto sidings in order for trains to pass each other. Phase 2 only slightly addresses this. The Trillium Line cannot run more trains on the current section. It is maxed out already. Frequency cannot be improved. Longer trains will be used to address increased ridership (from the southern suburbs), but there is no opportunity for airport trains to be more than a local spur.

The airport authority is funding the airport station and lobbied the higher level of governments. This is the only reason why it is being built. Potential ridership does not justify it. Most agree that replacing the current direct downtown bus service with a two transfer rail service actually represents a deterioration in service.

 

[JasonParis]

Thanks for that! Helps a lot.

What % of the Trillium line is single-tracked? I had no idea. Are there any physical reasons why it can't all be double-tracked?

 

[lrt's friend]

Thanks for that! Helps a lot.

What % of the Trillium line is single-tracked? I had no idea. Are there any physical reasons why it can't all be double-tracked?

90 to 95% is single tracked. There are passing tracks at Carleton University, at the north end (Bayview), and at a place called Brookfield towards the south end. It allows 4 trains to operate concurrently. That is the max. For Phase 2, double tracking will be slightly extended at the north end (currently a problem), and at Carleton University (needed for longer trains). It represents a minimal change, maybe a few more percentage.

I believe that after Phase 2, 7 trains will run on the main line, plus 2 on the airport spur. The additional 3 trains are accommodated on the new southern extension.

Double tracking was cancelled when the city cancelled the original North-South LRT project in 2006. The cost of full double tracking has escalated tremendously since then. A tunnel needs to be twinned, a lengthy rock cut needs to be widened and several bridges will need to be altered or replaced.

 

[ShonTron]

MacDonald-Cartier Airport is not Pearson. Not nearly the number of travellers.

The bigger issue is the planned design. In my opinion, it is white elephant project. To reach downtown hotels, travellers need to transfer twice. The big weakness of the Trillium LIne is that it is single tracked. Already, trains cannot run at full speed, because they keep having to move off onto sidings in order for trains to pass each other. Phase 2 only slightly addresses this. The Trillium Line cannot run more trains on the current section. It is maxed out already. Frequency cannot be improved. Longer trains will be used to address increased ridership (from the southern suburbs), but there is no opportunity for airport trains to be more than a local spur.

The airport authority is funding the airport station and lobbied the higher level of governments. This is the only reason why it is being built. Potential ridership does not justify it. Most agree that replacing the current direct downtown bus service with a two transfer rail service actually represents a deterioration in service.

Two transfer rail service? Meaning the Airport spur would operate like a stub shuttle to the Trillium Line?
Once the LRT Phase I opens, travellers will require a transfer at Hurdman to the LRT or Billings Bridge to a local bus to get downtown. The direct 97 bus will no longer be a thing.

 

[lrt's friend]

Two transfer rail service? Meaning the Airport spur would operate like a stub shuttle to the Trillium Line?
Once the LRT Phase I opens, travellers will require a transfer at Hurdman to the LRT or Billings Bridge to a local bus to get downtown. The direct 97 bus will no longer be a thing.

Correct. The direct downtown bus service ends with the opening of the Confederation Line. I am not sure how that will go.

And yes, the airport spur will operate as a stub shuttle. In the old days, that was called a jigger service. The Trillium Line does not run downtown and will require a transfer at Bayview station.

There has been some recent discussion on the Ottawa board about the capacity of the Confederation Line, whether enough trains have been purchased to handle maximum anticipated ridership on Day 1 and whether crush loading is expected.

 

[KevinT]

It's very difficult to find competent builders planners of public transit in Canada. This line should have opened shouldn't have been scheduled to open a year ago.

There, fixed that for you.

Reason: I don't believe the construction companies are particularly incompetent, just that the planners are overly optimistic. Probably a catch-22 though, if they were more realistic up front there'd be a high risk these things wouldn't get approved in the first place. I'm sure that they're walking a tight line and they know it.

 

[Kyle Campbell]

There, fixed that for you.

Reason: I don't believe the construction companies are particularly incompetent, just that the planners are overly optimistic. Probably a catch-22 though, if they were more realistic up front there'd be a high risk these things wouldn't get approved in the first place. I'm sure that they're walking a tight line and they know it.

That only works if the contractor works at the same pace, if you give them an additional year, they'll reduce the number of works on site and it will all become moot, and they'll still be late. Their goal is to make a profit off the contract, and they will evaluate if taking the penalty for being late is worth the tradeoff in labor cost reduction with fewer workers.

 

[lrt's friend]

That only works if the contractor works at the same pace, if you give them an additional year, they'll reduce the number of works on site and it will all become moot, and they'll still be late. Their goal is to make a profit off the contract, and they will evaluate if taking the penalty for being late is worth the tradeoff in labor cost reduction with fewer workers.

There have been many comments like this. Extend the deadline, and the contractor reduces overtime (naturally) and the number of workers overall.
It is like many workers. Reduce the workload, and the job gets spread out to fill the day.

 

[gweed123]

The Trim Road extension and airport spur are the lowest priority projects and the city is not investing in them for good reason.

It could be cut back to Place d'Orleans and I don't think anyone would be too upset about it, but the extension to Orleans needs to happen.

Cutting Moodie extension means there is no place to store Phase 2 trains. That is where the train storage facility will be.

There are a couple other places along the route it could be put (around Lincoln Fields for example). Yes, it would certainly help to have it at Moodie, but if you're looking for things to cut.

Cutting the Riverside South extension means we should cancel Trillium Line Phase 2 entirely. Instead, we will need to invest money in road expansion. Where that money comes from, I don't know.

The Trillium Line could instead operate direct to the Airport, instead of having the airport be a separate spur line.

Cutting the Baseline BRT, which has unknown status anyways, eliminates the missing cross-town link that really is the only new transit that we will be building.

Without provincial support, nothing will be built. The federal government will not provide funding for a project that the province will not fund.

I don't think it's politically feasible for Ottawa to throw away $1 billion from the Feds just because the Province didn't pitch in their portion too. They'll cut the scope, but they won't build nothing. The devil will be in the details, which in this case is what to cut. I'm just offering up suggestions on what would be politically feasible given the political realities.

 

[lrt's friend]

It could be cut back to Place d'Orleans and I don't think anyone would be too upset about it, but the extension to Orleans needs to happen.



There are a couple other places along the route it could be put (around Lincoln Fields for example). Yes, it would certainly help to have it at Moodie, but if you're looking for things to cut.



The Trillium Line could instead operate direct to the Airport, instead of having the airport be a separate spur line.



I don't think it's politically feasible for Ottawa to throw away $1 billion from the Feds just because the Province didn't pitch in their portion too. They'll cut the scope, but they won't build nothing. The devil will be in the details, which in this case is what to cut. I'm just offering up suggestions on what would be politically feasible given the political realities.

Lincoln Fields is not available.

The city's priority is serve the growing suburbs south of the airport. The choice is to spend millions on rail or millions on roads. The city has chosen rail and it is overdue. The city cannot justify spending on the airport spur with limited ridership at the expense of those who actually pay taxes.

Without provincial support, I highly question how the city proceeds. All the design work and EAs are done, and the bidding process is complete. Major revisions will mean that much work has to be redone. This means delays measured in years.