Ontario's inevitable takeover of Canada

[scarberiankhatru]

Quebec has fewer seats per capita than every province except Ontario, Alberta, and BC.


"As it is, Ottawa takes ~4% (depending on who you ask) of Ontario's GDP for redistributive purposes. That's a hefty drag on our economy."

If you think of it as a kind of national economic insurance, it's really not that much.

 

[afransen TO]

You were surprised by that? Quebec is virtually never sleighted or given less than average. Ontario on the other hand is expected (and willing) to take a few for the team.

 

[afransen TO]

National insurance against what? A 4% is quite a lot. Ask an economist...

 

[bizorky]

In 2005, Quebec's population fell to 23.5% of the overall Canadian population. It will continue to diminish as the populations in many other provinces (Alberta, Ontario and British Columbia mostly) are growing at a higher rate. Not too long from now, the country may be composed of one province with a large population, three with "mid-sized" populations, three with relatively small populations, and three more with what amount to being city populations and not much more than that.

 

[afransen TO]

I think it is conceivable for Montreal to begin growing again, so perhaps Quebec's waning importance will not be permanent.

 

[bizorky]

^Montreal may grow, but the population of the province as a whole is very slow-growing.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

There's no reason to think nothing will happen between now and 2080 to shift more of the country's growth to Quebec - and it is still growing, it's just losing its national share because Ontario is growing faster. For all the talk of Alberta's growth, BC's been growing faster for most of the past 75 years. And who would have thought that Saskatchewan's population would explode to almost a million and then remain basically unchanged for the next 75 years? Wars, terrorism, famines, earthquakes, the collapse of Ontario's auto industry, running out of oil, big changes to migration patterns due to internal changes in Asian countries...anything can happen. It's not a coincidence that Quebec's growth rate started dropping in the 60s. We like to think that we're immune to stuff like that here in Ontario because our population and economy have been booming for so long, but we're not.

 

[bizorky]

^The only reason to think it is that making predictions of what things will be like in 80 years is virtually impossible with respect to accuracy.

Right now, the census trends show slow growth in Quebec, trends which have existed for many years and have become a thing of concern for the Quebec government.

 

[Bogtrotter]

...which is why nationalistic quebec governemnts devised a series of make babies campaigns :evil More babies means more money in your pocket! A baby-bonus program which paid couples 500 bucks for the first child and $8000 for a third kiddie. Reimbursing student loans borrowed for those who have children within five years of finishing school. A 4 day work week for parents with young children...

Either that or open the gates to more to more HAitians etc. Herr Bouchard would have loved that- "Mein Fuhrer- I can walk!"

 

[Observer Walt]

Agreed, bizorky. It's pretty foolish to try to predict even the broad outlines of trends, never mind specifics, more than a few years from now. 20 years ago (mid 80s), Alberta was almost a disaster area. The entire country was in a recession, but Alberta felt it more than most. People were losing their houses left, right, and centre. Only two years ago, there was debate over whether the price of oil would stay above $60 per barrel (remember that?), leading to discussion of whether it would be economical to develop new projects in the oil sands.

Quebec was widely perceived as unstable and unattractive just a few years ago. But if their economy does well, and if the separatist threat seems to be receding, as at present, who says their population couldn't rebound?

Canada is affected by immigration trends more than most countries, and events on the other side of the world can't be predicted. Will we continue to get educated and productive immigrants, or will they find better prospects as their own countries develop? The list goes on ...

It's interesting perhaps to read this stuff, but it's really not much more than science fiction.

 

[Antiloop33rpm]

But if their economy does well, and if the separatist threat seems to be receding, as at present, who says their population couldn't rebound?

The seperatist threat is not receeding, only changing. Just as their population and economy could grow if independent, or stagnate and decline under federalism. Quebec may never grow at the rate of Ontario or Alberta, but it will most likely continue on at a somewhat moderate, steady pace, just as it has always done.