Ontario loses immigrants

[CN Tower]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...riving-in-canada/article1849020/?from=1848219

This des not bode well for the long term health of the housing market.

 

[cdr108]

i believe that was the reason immigration minister Jason Kenney used this week to cut/reduce funding for immigration services in the GTA.
there was news about it and the disappointment by the South Asian communities and appeal by the opposition parties, etc.

but don't worry about it CN Tower, the facts won't deter RE agents/developers from stating the same old, same old 100K/year figure, even though it's been declining steadily for the past decade.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...-wont-impact-bc-says-minister/article1849344/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...s-threaten-immigrant-agencies/article1848219/

 

[simuls]

Simply too many threads to remember which one I replied to, but i do remember posting immigration and Toronto projected population statistics at one point and how Toronto will need LESS housing over the next 30 years than over the past 30 years. This seems to echo that sentiment rather nicely. Agreed that TO RE agents will simply dismiss this. I wonder how Will Dunning will look at it - he seems to be much more in bed with developers over the past 12 months rather than objective like he used to be.

 

[KA1]

Simply too many threads to remember which one I replied to, but i do remember posting immigration and Toronto projected population statistics at one point and how Toronto will need LESS housing over the next 30 years than over the past 30 years. This seems to echo that sentiment rather nicely. Agreed that TO RE agents will simply dismiss this. I wonder how Will Dunning will look at it - he seems to be much more in bed with developers over the past 12 months rather than objective like he used to be.

I would highly appreciate if CN Tower, Cdr108 and Simuls could take their logic a bit further.

What does it all mean in simple language? Shake up in the ranks of the developers? Slow and steady decrease in the demand and, as such, slow and steady decline in prices? How low prices can go? Considering the state of transportation in GTA, some of the individuals are moving father afar where GO trains go -- Hamilton, Milton. Others, and myself included, have moved to core downtown. Does this mean that prices in these areas will, perhaps, not decline and remain steady while the prices in mid-suburbs take a beating? More important, where to invest your money if you have steady cash flow?

 

[TrickyRicky]

I've stated many times before that immigration has long-term multi-decade impacts but in my opinion little relevence to short-term real estate cycles. Meaning, if you don't plan to hold your property for more than 10 years population numbers don't matter.

That said I was wondering about those published Globe and Mail numbers. Clearly permanent residents (does this mean immigrants?) are decreasing in Ontario but where are they going, or is the total number coming to Canada dropping? Looking at the graph there are small upticks in permenant residents settling in Alberta and the Prairies, but they don't make up for the losses in Ontario. Or are we missing something.

Also, I think a large portion of the increase in demand is a reflection of the decrease in household size. What I mean is that much of the new housing stock is burned up by the fact that more and more people live alone or with less other people. This trend is a demographic irregulatity and might also have played it's course. Cost of living matters because as the costs of both purchasing and maintaining property in the region increase, the ability of people to live alone or with less other people will also start to decrease.