Oil prices, looming energy problems and oh yes, Peak Oil.....

[tkip]

Not really a Toronto issue per say but recently what with all media coverage about the continuning stellar rise of oil prices reminded me of something my brother talked about several years ago while in university.

Peak Oil.

So I went online and started reading articles and watching online docs and there does seem to be a wealth of stuff out there covering this topic and a lot of it isn't postive. So without going into boring details on something I really don't understand yet, what do others think about this and where it's all going.

My brother is of the mind that within the next 10-15 years some rather unpleasant changes are coming which includes the eventual restructuring of our growth economy into something else and he suggested you can kind of kiss goodbye to the industries like tourism at some point since commercial carriers will eventually be going out of business.

Due to insane fuel costs.

 

[TKTKTK]

Due to insane fuel costs.

I suspect within the next 10-15 years you're going to see the alternative fuel industry explode into a fury of new inventions and innovations.

 

[Long Island Mike]

As oil prices rise mass transit ridership goes up...

TKIP: I recall reading recently that due to higher oil costs for gasoline among other products mass transit ridership especially in large cities with rail systems is steadily rising-I feel that our oil dependency was going to be a major problem someday and I feel that day might be coming soon. I agree with some people that the era of cheap gasoline-which has been the base of North America's transport system since the late 40s is definitely over-now with over $100 barrels of oil. Cities and areas that have good mass transit will benefit over others that do not. My thoughts today-LI MIKE

 

[afransen]

While it won't be pleasant, Peak Oil will also not be the doomsday that some make it out to be. There are abundant alternative sources of energy and abundant opportunities to reduce energy consumption. It is a matter of price. As oil prices rise, alternatives look ever more appealing. More people consider ways to do more with less.

People will still fly. Our strawberries will continue to come from California. We'll still have all the medicines, etc. that are now derived from petroleum. We'll do it all more intelligently. I do foresee substantially reduced car usage, and smaller vehicles, but cars will continue to be a dominant force in our culture and society.

I guess that's to say that we won't all of a sudden be out of oil, with planes falling out of the sky and hospitals having to close due to lack of supplies. There will always be oil available, but at prices that are uncompetitive for most applications, particularly for simply burning as fuel (which is quite wasteful).

 

[CityPlaceN1]

Toronto Sun is talking $1.50 a litre this summer.

Wed, March 12, 2008
A real pain in the gas
Think paying $1.12 a litre hurts? Just wait 'til summer

By TAMARA CHERRY, SUN MEDIA


A man fills up his mini-van at $1.12 a litre yesterday at a Petro-Canada gas station at Harbord and Crawford Sts. in Toronto. (Michael Peake, Sun Media)


Drivers resigned to hikes
'We are slaves to the pump'
Think gas prices are bad now? You just wait.

Following pace with record high crude oil prices yesterday, some pumps around the GTA were spitting out gas at more than $1.12 a litre.

And experts say it will only get worse -- as in, $1.50-a-litre-by-summer worse.

Or get this -- $3 a litre within the next decade.

The gas price hike has a lot to do with the price of crude oil, which has a lot to do with the U.S. dollar, said Jason Toews, co-founder of Minneapolis-based gasbuddy.com.

The problem is, that U.S. dollar hasn't been doing so well lately, pushing the price of crude to a record-breaking $109 a barrel yesterday.

"We're going to start thinking of these prices as being cheap," Toews said of GTA gas. "I wouldn't be surprised to see $1.40 to $1.50 by the middle of May."

Want to save? Here are your options:

Switch to a more fuel-efficient vehicle, carpool or just ditch driving all together by taking public transit, walking or riding your bike, Toews suggested. But if you think this will have any effect on the price of gas, think again.

"If we in Toronto all stopped using gasoline, it's not going to have a huge effect on the world price of gasoline," said energy and oil analyst Randy Park, who predicts $3 a litre gas "certainly within 10 years."

The only thing that will bring gas down, aside from short-term fluctuations, is "severe worldwide economic changes," such as a depression, Park said.

That amounts to little more than a shrug for most of us who have become desensitized to high gas prices, Park said. So unless prices hit somewhere around $8/litre, we'll find a way to pay, he added.

Remember August, 1989? Record-high gas prices created chaos at Ontario-U.S. border crossings when a litre of gas in southern Ontario was an average of 54.2c a litre, compared to 32.3c in Niagara Falls, N.Y.

The following year, crude oil reached a record high of $41.15 a barrel, spiking the price of gas to around 60c a litre.

"There's nothing on the horizon that suggests oil or gasoline are going to drop in price," Park said. "And yet, there's more and more consumption."

If you are one to complain, consider this: Ontario was reporting the cheapest average price of gas in Canada -- about $1.07 -- for much of yesterday, while stations in Newfoundland were charging more than $1.24 a litre.

---

HOW TO USE LESS LIQUID GOLD

Top 10 fuel-saving tips from TorontoGasPrices.com:

1. Avoid high speeds.

2. Do not accelerate or brake hard.

3. Keep tires properly inflated.

4. Use the air conditioning sparingly.

5. Keep windows closed.

6. Service vehicle regularly.

7. Use cruise control.

8. Avoid heavy loads.

9. Avoid long idles.

10. Buy a fuel-efficient vehicle.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

natural selection- combustion engines that use too much fuel die off while the efficient ones live to breed the new generations. there are cars being developed whose windshield wipers produce more drag than the entire cars; now that's what i call intelligent design!

 

[Hydrogen]

There is no shortage of oil presently, so what we are seeing is something of a price bubble.

 

[EnviroTO]

Peak oil is probably a reality in the next year or two. It will force energy efficiency and fix a system where gas is cheaper than bottled water. Right now the majority hop in the car with no thought about the gas until they get to the pump, complain, and soon after driving off don't think about it. Probably more people act on downtown parking prices than act on gas prices.

 

[tkip]

Run for the hills............

Truth be told, my brother did mention that it would be the market's reaction to the realization of peak oil that might trigger a domino effect of sorts.

But I think the general fear is that the economy would begin to stutter in the face of the escalating costs for energy then begins to shrink leading to panic as jobs start disappearing. I don't really pretend to understand how all this works.

Apparently the first signs outside of gas prices at the pumps would be the slow increase of air carriers raising ticket fares due to increased fuel costs but eventually...... they start to go out of business. Also, unlike engines for cars which can be modified for alternative fuel, jet engines cannot. Apparently.


Guess I should look into buying gold and silver down the road. You just never know........

 

[EnviroTO]

Well gas has gone up 20-30% already since Katrina. I'm not sure it has made much of an impact at all suggesting to me that it could go up significantly more without much impact. I'm not sure gas prices represents a large portion of the costs of most goods. Surely every industry is affected from energy rquired to process and manufacture, costs of chemicals and plastics, to transport of both raw materials and final products to market... but there are so many other costs like employees, profit margins, non-oil based raw materials, cost of creating the manufacturing process, etc. Most goods and raw materials are shipped in bulk by ship and rail which is fairly energy efficient already and will become even moreso.

 

[unimaginative2]

There is no shortage of oil presently, so what we are seeing is something of a price bubble.

Oh, but there is. The most recent price rise was as a result of reports of unexpectedly low U.S. oil inventories. By definition, that's a shortage. The question is whether this is a temporary fluke or a long-term trend. And even if it is a temporary fluke, it's not to say that an inventory shortage a few months or years down the line won't be more permanent.

I think the issues of high oil prices are somewhat overblown. Even if the price of oil doubles, its effect on the price of most goods wouldn't likely be very significant. Even for goods imported from as far away as Asia, the cost of fuel for transportation is pretty minimal, far smaller than the cost of retailing and marketing. An actual oil shortage is an entirely different matter, as any shortage inevitably spirals out of control as people start hoarding. That could cause the economy to grind to a halt, or at least suffer major shocks. Likewise, an accompanying leap in the price of natural gas could send electricity rates soaring in areas which are reliant on that fuel. I support a policy of two-tier electricity rates, with industrial users which are far more sensitive to prices paying significantly less than residential and commercial users.

 

[MetroMan]

Well... gas doesn't have an expiry date does it? I'm going to consider start filling up a container every time I fill up my car and then dump it in a container in the garage. Is that illegal? Gasoline hoarding?

 

[unimaginative2]

People did do stuff like that in the 70s, but they eventually started limiting people to a few gallons per trip to the gas station.

You'd better hope you don't have reckless smokers in your garage, or else that would be one hell of a party.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

Well... gas doesn't have an expiry date does it? I'm going to consider start filling up a container every time I fill up my car and then dump it in a container in the garage. Is that illegal? Gasoline hoarding?

gas does go bad but you can always add a stabilizer to make it last longer. i wouldn't store many containers of gasoline because they need to vent and all those fumes building up in a closed space could be dangerous.

 

[Hydrogen]

Oh, but there is. The most recent price rise was as a result of reports of unexpectedly low U.S. oil inventories. By definition, that's a shortage. The question is whether this is a temporary fluke or a long-term trend. And even if it is a temporary fluke, it's not to say that an inventory shortage a few months or years down the line won't be more permanent.

I think the issues of high oil prices are somewhat overblown. Even if the price of oil doubles, its effect on the price of most goods wouldn't likely be very significant. Even for goods imported from as far away as Asia, the cost of fuel for transportation is pretty minimal, far smaller than the cost of retailing and marketing. An actual oil shortage is an entirely different matter, as any shortage inevitably spirals out of control as people start hoarding. That could cause the economy to grind to a halt, or at least suffer major shocks. Likewise, an accompanying leap in the price of natural gas could send electricity rates soaring in areas which are reliant on that fuel. I support a policy of two-tier electricity rates, with industrial users which are far more sensitive to prices paying significantly less than residential and commercial users.

There is a shortage in North American refinery capacity. That does not represent the imminent end of oil on the planet. One should also factor in the cool, longer than average winter across the United States.

Energy costs are causing a spike in inflation in Europe.