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November 2020 US Election

I don't think Harris can win the nomination in 2024. Much as I like her. But as long as Democrats can hold the House and maybe the Senate, that can act against a firewall against whatever crazy the GOP nominates and their country possibly elects.

Will be interesting to see how the GOP and Dems reform after this election. I'm worried Democrats will go off the cliff with safe seat progressives like AOC attacking swing state moderates like Joe Manchin and taking down the whole party with them.
 
Don't forget the difference between those who are liberal arts majors (who are more likely to vote for Biden) vs. those whose academic disciplines include hard science, business (including finance), law (including law enforcement), evangelical theology, and athletics.

And how these days, the notion of "breadth" has gone out the window--that is, a kind of tribalization in education and knowledge, where one pursues what one is interested in and everything else might as well go to blazes. Something compounded by the eclipse of general-purpose mass media and its way of passively drawing attention to "everything in the world", so to speak.

Today, re "young educated", that can just as well mean hyperspecialized job-based vocational training, or what turns out to be the same in practice. Something devoted to creating money-generating cogs-in-a-wheel rather than thoughtful members of *society*.
 
Today, re "young educated", that can just as well mean hyperspecialized job-based vocational training, or what turns out to be the same in practice. Something devoted to creating money-generating cogs-in-a-wheel rather than thoughtful members of *society*.
I would never assume a generation is a monolithic bloc of political thought. Thoughtful members of society? Today‘s young people are the same as yesterday’s in one respect, they want to establish themselves, get a job, build a life.
 
I should maybe emphasize, I'm talking friends I know who are either in their senior years at highschool or just starting at university/college.

In some cases the families themselves are split too, where ones in a liberal artsy program and another is a staunch capitalist. Personally I think American capitalism has a large part to play in the current political situation. My point was simply, these are young people, in what are generally regarded as blue states, who are pro trump. It's not simply a cut and dry, down south uber white communities who are brainwashed. There are people who "shouldn't" be pro trump all over the country and that's often ignored in discussions surrounding, trump and the election.

As for not having breadth. While I agree having breadth is important, knowing little about a lot isnt generally regarded as constructive and often leaves people ill informed and unable to defend their various beliefs and ideologies. That's why there has been a shift towards more specific education.

Making sure you gather more knowledge outside your field on your own volition is incredibly important, but pursing a specialized career, in which you are very knowledgeable in your field is equally critical.
 
If you don't want to read polls or want some other indicator.....

A Canadian AI outfit that uses social media polls to predict elections:


They called Brexit, Trump and the last federal election within 2 seats. I'm watching to see how close they get this year. Their CEO was on a recent TVO Agenda podcast.
 
As for not having breadth. While I agree having breadth is important, knowing little about a lot isnt generally regarded as constructive and often leaves people ill informed and unable to defend their various beliefs and ideologies. That's why there has been a shift towards more specific education.

Making sure you gather more knowledge outside your field on your own volition is incredibly important, but pursing a specialized career, in which you are very knowledgeable in your field is equally critical.

I know what you mean, if you're thinking of the kinds of 70s/80s general humanities majors who were ill-equipped for "career employment", back in those Cold War glory days when university education was cheap and universal and in practice nothing more than a time-biding next educational phase after high school, just the thing for hippies and slackers to infinitely defer real adult responsibility by.

However, the kind of "breadth" I'm referring to isn't about formal education per se, but something more passively acquired through everyday media exposure back when a "valid" mass media still existed. Whereas these days, kids generally don't grow up in households with newspaper subscriptions or much in the way of print media around the house, so there's little tangible to draw attention and whet curiosity. Sure, a lot of that exists on the internet; but one has to actively motivate them into taking advantage of that plethora.

But speaking of someone that's old enough to be the parent of such kids, another thing comes to mind relative to my own youth: that the nature of parenting has changed. Or to put it another way, I was part of the first cohort who grew up in an era when, thanks to the sexual and social and cultural revolutions of the 60s and 70s, parenting came to be more of an "opt-in" than a natural, universal rite of passage. Thus entering a phase of life when, back in the immediate postwar years, people my age typically started to marry and reproduce, I felt a disconnect. In fact, in the high Reagan years, it seemed to me like those who *did* opt in--not just re parenting, but the whole suburban-nuclear-family lifestyle--were like the hidebound dregs of whatever generation they belonged to.

And in retrospect, I might have been intuitively on to something--that is, by the 80s/90s, those whom one might term "culturally thoughtful" were having a lot less children, or being very measured in *how* they had and raised children. They became rarefied cases, even if they became a critical mass in "hipstervilles". While those who *were* having children in spades sort of like...shouldn't have been having children? Or at least aside from religious/natalist obligations, the brats worked out as little more than protoplasmic bling, self-indulgent emblems of fertility and fecundity

So my feeling is: a lot of these Trumpish kids likely come from the kinds of so-called dreg families I was distancing myself from from the 1980s onward, and they internalized the kind of tabloid/reality-show/Instagram values that prevail among such types. And because they come from such a culturally bereft environment and know no better, even the best university education for them might work out as nothing more than "DeVry with pretensions"...
 
Next Trump, Biden debate will cut mics when rivals speak during certain sections

From link.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden will have their microphones cut off in Thursday’s debate while their rival delivers their opening two-minute answer to each of the debate topics.

The 90-minute debate is divided into six 15-minute segments, with each candidate granted two minutes to deliver uninterrupted remarks before proceeding to an open debate. The open discussion portion of the debate will not feature a mute button, but interruptions by either candidate will count toward their time in the second and final debate Thursday.

The nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates announced the rule changes Monday, three weeks after a chaotic opening faceoff between the two presidential contenders that featured frequent interruptions — mostly by Trump.

The commission has faced pressure from the Trump campaign to avoid changing the rules, while Biden’s team was hoping for a more ordered debate. In a statement, the commission said it “had determined that it is appropriate to adopt measures intended to promote adherence to agreed upon rules and inappropriate to make changes to those rules.”

As long as Biden can wear a mask...
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From link.
 
Again re "Trumpish kids": I suppose the "bling values" thing might also underpin apparent rising support (at least relative to 2016) among younger black & Hispanic voters. A sort of "Kanye aspirationality", and perhaps a sequel to how reality shows like The Apprentice had particular pull among the nonwhite-aspirational.
 
Even George W Bush is likely voting Democrat this year.

The Lincoln Project has it right, this election is not about Democrats or Republicans it is about doing every Americans patriotic duty to defend their country. Americans love that and if you appeal to their patriotism they will run with it.

Say what you will but this is not the GOP's year. When you have former GOP figures coming out against Trump on the basis of his being detrimental to the USA people listen.

People see how Trump is, they see the people they voted for previously saying that Trump is bad for America and they will vote for Biden. Nothing to be ashamed about in this case, you are just doing your duty to protect America.

That being said, it will be interesting to see how the senate unfolds given their loyalty to Trump all these years. Personally I hope Mitch McConnell gets re-elected to a severely diminished GOP minority in the senate.
 
Well here's another reason on not voting Trump.
 
Well here's another reason on not voting Trump.

Give it another 4 years..........and the transformation will be complete!

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