Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

[wild goose chase]

I was just thinking one thing that's noticeably different about this coronavirus outbreak compared to SARS from 2002-2003 is that unlike then, now other first world western countries seem to be getting affected far more and earlier than Canada is. So far, Canada (or Toronto) in particular has not faced the brunt of the cases (well, yet, hopefully it stays that way). Italy's got hundreds of cases already, the US has dozens, and Germany, France, the UK etc. so far have more cases than Canada.

While back in the SARS days, Canada was disproportionately overrepresented in the outbreak (outside Asia). Back then, Canada was the only western country to have three digit numbers of cases, and the only western country to have fatalities, and I remember Toronto in particular was super-affected, while the US and Europe was less strongly affected.

Hopefully we've learned (and have gotten better at preparing for outbreaks) since SARS ravaged Toronto back then.

 

[TheKingEast]

I was just thinking one thing that's noticeably different about this coronavirus outbreak compared to SARS from 2002-2003 is that unlike then, now other first world western countries seem to be getting affected far more and earlier than Canada is. So far, Canada (or Toronto) in particular has not faced the brunt of the cases (well, yet, hopefully it stays that way). Italy's got hundreds of cases already, the US has dozens, and Germany, France, the UK etc. so far have more cases than Canada.

While back in the SARS days, Canada was disproportionately overrepresented in the outbreak (outside Asia). Back then, Canada was the only western country to have three digit numbers of cases, and the only western country to have fatalities, and I remember Toronto in particular was super-affected, while the US and Europe was less strongly affected.

Hopefully we've learned (and have gotten better at preparing for outbreaks) since SARS ravaged Toronto back then.

But we have flights every day into Toronto. Things can change really quickly.

 

[smably]

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.

www.theatlantic.com

With its potent mix of characteristics, this virus is unlike most that capture popular attention: It is deadly, but not too deadly. It makes people sick, but not in predictable, uniquely identifiable ways. Last week, 14 Americans tested positive on a cruise ship in Japan despite feeling fine—the new virus may be most dangerous because, it seems, it may sometimes cause no symptoms at all.

The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I was just thinking one thing that's noticeably different about this coronavirus outbreak compared to SARS from 2002-2003 is that unlike then, now other first world western countries seem to be getting affected far more and earlier than Canada is. So far, Canada (or Toronto) in particular has not faced the brunt of the cases (well, yet, hopefully it stays that way). Italy's got hundreds of cases already, the US has dozens, and Germany, France, the UK etc. so far have more cases than Canada.

While back in the SARS days, Canada was disproportionately overrepresented in the outbreak (outside Asia). Back then, Canada was the only western country to have three digit numbers of cases, and the only western country to have fatalities, and I remember Toronto in particular was super-affected, while the US and Europe was less strongly affected.

Hopefully we've learned (and have gotten better at preparing for outbreaks) since SARS ravaged Toronto back then.

It's bit of bad luck combined with systemic public health and infection control weakness back in 2003 that made SARS such a mess here (that weakness is specific to Ontario - vs. successful control in BC). Also tourism seem to be more of a driver this time around - travel patterns have changed since 2003.

Anyone should read the SARS report (especially Volume 2, Chapter 3 & 4) to know how much of a FUBAR things were in Ontario.

AoD

 

[AlbertC]

5th case of Coronavirus in Ontario has been reported:

"In a statement, Ontario's chief medical officer of health said the woman in her 60s went to Toronto's Sunnybrook Hospital on Feb. 24. She had recently travelled to Iran, Dr. David Williams said."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-ontario-fifth-case-iran-1.5476359

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

5th case of Coronavirus in Ontario has been reported:

"In a statement, Ontario's chief medical officer of health said the woman in her 60s went to Toronto's Sunnybrook Hospital on Feb. 24. She had recently travelled to Iran, Dr. David Williams said."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-ontario-fifth-case-iran-1.5476359

Interesting that there are now 2 cases from Iran already so quickly. It's probably going to blow up worse than China (Chinese authoritarianism without authoritative response):

Why Iran’s coronavirus outbreak may be worse than you think

If you had to pick a region primed for an outbreak, the Middle East would be a top choice.

www.vox.com

AoD

 

[Admiral Beez]

Interesting that there are now 2 cases from Iran already so quickly. It's probably going to blow up worse than China (Chinese authoritarianism without authoritative response):

Why Iran’s coronavirus outbreak may be worse than you think

If you had to pick a region primed for an outbreak, the Middle East would be a top choice.

www.vox.com

AoD

This seems to be drawing us into a panic. How deadly is this virus? In Canada, over 3,500 people die from the regular flu every year, or 0.001% of the Canadian population. Meanwhile, 5 to 20 percent of Canada's >37 million residents get the flu every year.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

This seems to be drawing us into a panic. How deadly is this virus? In Canada, over 3,500 people die from the regular flu every year, or 0.001% of the Canadian population. Meanwhile, 5 to 20 percent of Canada's >37 million residents get the flu every year.

There are many variables - like the percentage of population getting it, mortality rate, percentage that will require intensive care, etc. The numbers out there seem to show that it will be worse than your regular flu:

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu.

www.livescience.com

Maybe the overall impact will not as bad as the Spanish Flu of 1918/19 (2-3% mortality; and certainly a lot less deadly than SARS with 30% mortality), but if it gets around it will still be a challenge. If 5-20% of Canadians gets this, with a mortality rate of 1% and critical rate of 5% (it maybe lowballing, but I digress), the math still looks pretty bad (19K-74K dead; 93K-370K critical).

AoD

 

[tiffer24]

Ontario's latest COVID-19 patient was in Toronto for 9 days before reporting to Sunnybrook's ER with symptoms. Officials are tracing all of her contacts during that time.

https://www.cp24.com/news/officials...r-ontario-s-latest-covid-19-patient-1.4828083

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

By the sounds of it, it looks like Iran is not managing this situation at all. I would be way more concerned with managing travel from Iran at this point, as indicated by the most recent Toronto case.

The reported number of cases in South Korea spiked today.

 

[AlbertC]

Coronavirus cases surge to 400 in Italy

The number of coronavirus cases in Italy has jumped to 400, amid international efforts to contain the spread of the deadly outbreak.

The rise in Italy, the main focus of infection in Europe, represents a 25% surge in 24 hours.

Coronavirus cases surge to 400 in Italy

Europe's worst-hit country reports a rise of 25% in a day, as the virus spreads fast outside China.

www.bbc.com

 

[gabe]

This seems to be drawing us into a panic. How deadly is this virus? In Canada, over 3,500 people die from the regular flu every year, or 0.001% of the Canadian population. Meanwhile, 5 to 20 percent of Canada's >37 million residents get the flu every year.

True, but at least we have antiviral medicine for the flu, so far we have nothing for coronavirus.

 

[Jonny5]

There are many variables - like the percentage of population getting it, mortality rate, percentage that will require intensive care, etc. The numbers out there seem to show that it will be worse than your regular flu:

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu.

www.livescience.com

Maybe the overall impact will not as bad as the Spanish Flu of 1918/19 (2-3% mortality; and certainly a lot less deadly than SARS with 30% mortality), but if it gets around it will still be a challenge. If 5-20% of Canadians gets this, with a mortality rate of 1% and critical rate of 5% (it maybe lowballing, but I digress), the math still looks pretty bad (19K-74K dead; 93K-370K critical).

AoD

There's also a possible rapid economic impact. The annual flus take a portion of the population out of the work force but in stages over months as the flu slowly spreads through workplaces, and a small number of people go out sick while others return. A virus that spreads very rapidly could knock out 10% of the workforce simultaneously. 10% sounds manageable, but is often actually not. It can be a much larger burden than it sounds in white collar jobs where there may not be appropriate or trained backup staff avialable for some tasks; or for blue collar jobs involving specialised skills or where there is already a labour shortage.

That's why there's all this song and dance about declaring it a "pandemic." Global corporations now rely on these kinds of government declarations as the triggers for contingency plans. Declaring a pandemic will likely mean multi-national corporations automatically suspend all inter-office and international travel for some or all regions. That itself will hit hard the travel and hospitality industry, especially cities (like Toronto) that host large conventions which will probably be cancelled. It has further ripple effects from there.

 

[Admiral Beez]

By the sounds of it, it looks like Iran is not managing this situation at all. I would be way more concerned with managing travel from Iran at this point, as indicated by the most recent Toronto case.

How did it get to Iran and in such numbers? I understand that China is one of the few nations on friendly terms with Iran and likely has more travel than most to Iran, and then there's the pilgrimages to muslim sites, but still, reports are that thousands have the virus in Iran.

 

[tiffer24]

Public health officials confirm this latest COVID-19 diagnosis is Ontario's first instance of local human-to-human spread of the virus.

The husband of a Toronto woman who was diagnosed with COVID-19 on Tuesday night has also tested positive, representing Ontario's first confirmed instance of local human-to-human transmission of the virus.

On Wednesday, public health officials said a Toronto woman in her 60s who returned from Iran on Feb. 15 tested positive for the novel coronavirus, prompting public health officials to put her husband and her son into home self-isolation and embark on a mission to reach out to anyone she had come into contact with over a nine-day span.

https://www.cp24.com/news/toronto-h...id-19-case-tests-positive-for-virus-1.4829825