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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

DirectionNorth said:
Your data seems different than mine ... their restrictions are also much laxer (is that a word?)
Click to expand...
AlvinofDiaspar said:
Your data ended on December 24th (and I couldn't even tell if there are data quality issues on the last two days of that chart - if I had to guess, I'd think it's delayed reporting). And what does hospitalization has to do with restrictions? The latter should only affect the infection rate, not the rate of hospitalization among those who had been infected (generally speaking).

AoD
Click to expand...

King of research on hand to help...........LOL

Lets look at this to start:

1640920781650.png


For clarity:

Data current to Dec. 28th.

Note that that this is people in hospital who happen to test positive for Covid (or have within the preceding 14 days), not people admitted due to symptoms from Covid.

****

Now let's examine more closely:

Based on data current to Dec 21st:
The most up-to-date NHS data show that on December 21, there were 6,245 beds occupied by coronavirus patients in English hospitals - an increase of 259 from the previous week.


But within that increase, just 45 patients were admitted because of the virus, with the remaining 214 in hospital for other conditions but having also tested positive - so called “incidental Covid” admissions.
Click to expand...

The above from: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...hould-treated-caution-many-patients-admitted/

***

Lets further note the differences between the data offered by DN and AoD

The former is for the UK, the latter is for England.

Not the same data set.

****

One can play with the numbers, depending on what you choose to include........

That said, what can be factually assessed is that in England, as compared with early November, about 50% more patients who are admitted are testing positive for Covid.

However..........the total number of admissions is up substantially less than that............reflecting both hospital-acquired infections, and what the UK are terming 'incidental Covid infection' where that is not the primary reason for the patient's admission to care.

****

Put simply, the evidence suggests cases are spreading, but serious illness, not so much.

I'm not going to suggest that will not change...........but the current evidence does not support that conclusion, in the UK, best as I can discern.
 
Okay, my brain is full. The public are just going to have to go thru this, like WWII where info was questionable in real time for the general public but still they carried on for SIX god blessed years. It's a disease, we are just going to have to lump it. We have a few anti-vaxxers in my building and in my less Christian and more Darwinian moments I revert to "survival of the fittest" for comfort. Some will find the info comforting, I'm just exhausted with the barrage of facts and figures. SOmeone mentioned the film Brazil, we used to speculate what it would take to get that point (or even Woody Allen's Sleeper society), I have never felt so close to distopia as I do today!
 
This will be interesting, as HK has a relatively low vaccination rate in the ~70% (edit: not to mention usage of other vaccines like Sinovac). Granted their response will be much more draconian, but when it's already spread w/ community cases, you'd need a serious draconian response like in Xian to really control the spread.

www.reuters.com

Hong Kong says Omicron has breached its strict COVID-19 restrictions

Hong Kong's health officials said on Friday the Omicron variant of the coronavirus has made its way past some of the world's toughest COVID 19 restrictions, with the city reporting its first cases outside its strict quarantine system.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Northern Light said:
Note that that this is people in hospital who happen to test positive for Covid (or have within the preceding 14 days), not people admitted due to symptoms from Covid.
Click to expand...

This is a good read on those who test +'ve for covid (but not admitted due to covid).

www.theguardian.com

How can we measure the true scale of UK Covid hospital admissions?

The number of patients in hospital with Covid is rising, but how can we tell if they have been admitted because of the virus?
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

For those TLDR:
  • "Even those patients admitted ‘with’ rather than ‘because of’ Covid may only have required hospital care because of the disease itself."
  • "But Covid can lead to more disease in those admitted for another reason, longer hospital stays, more frequent readmissions or outpatient visits and even – in some cases – death. Patients with Covid also need to stay in Covid wards, putting pressure on bed numbers, and meaning elective surgery is postponed or cancelled. Covid patients also pose a risk of passing the infection to others, including other patients and staff. At present the NHS is hard hit by staff sickness and isolation due to Covid."
 
The Ministry of Health says that there were 16,713 new cases of the disease caused by the novel coronavirus confirmed by the province’s labs over the last 24 hours, with 29.8 per cent of all samples coming back positive.

Hospitalizations are also rising steadily now after previously lagging behind the sudden Omicron-fueled surge in cases that has taken place over the last few weeks.

The ministry is reporting that there are currently 205 people in intensive care units with COVID-19 and 1,144 in other hospital units. At this time last week there were only 154 people in the ICU with COVID-19 and 508 in other hospital units.

Ontario is also reporting an additional 15 deaths in people who had contracted COVID-19, which is the highest that number has been in months.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-r...s-hospitalizations-continue-to-rise-1.5724354
 
tiffer24 said:
Ontario is also reporting an additional 15 deaths in people who had contracted COVID-19, which is the highest that number has been in months.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-r...s-hospitalizations-continue-to-rise-1.5724354
Click to expand...

Important to note here that December is traditionally the 4th highest death month for the year, in most years.

1640970426881.png

This is from 1995, but the chart is similar most years.

You can see the deaths peak in the cold weather every year.

As such we would expect deaths both caused by Covid or those involving someone who has tested positive for Covid (but may be asymptomatic) to rise significantly from November, all other things being equal.
 
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Towered said:
Remember when Trump bitterly complained that infection numbers were so high due to excessive testing and that they should scale it back?
Click to expand...

I noticed on CP24 yesterday morning just how boneheaded the new policy is.

Dr Moore was saying because "Ontarians have been so good" the risk of flu and colds have diminished to the point where people can assume they have Covid and self isolate.

Honestly, Doug is trying to control the narrative but it is going to backfire.

I call it the Chernobyl effect. Doug finds out there is a problem, uses a bunch of half baked measures to control the situation and pretends everything is ok. Once the situation is out of control and everyone realises it (by which time it is too late) he then makes a inconspicuous press release subtly admitting the problem.
 

Ontario shortens quarantine, limits tests as COVID-19 cases surge​


From link.

Doug Ford is just following Donald Trump directions (from July 20, 2020)...

Trump said more Covid-19 testing ‘creates more cases.’​


See link.

President Trump said testing “makes us look bad.” At his campaign rally in Tulsa five days later, he said he had asked his “people” to “slow the testing down, please.” At a White House press conference last week, he told reporters, “When you test, you create cases.”

And in an interview with Fox News that aired Sunday, Trump could not have been clearer: “Cases are up because we have the best testing in the world and we have the most testing.” Basically, the president was arguing that the U.S. had just as many new cases in June and July as it did in May but, with fewer tests being done in May, they weren’t being detected; with more testing now, they are.
Click to expand...
 
Though figures are probably even further from the truth over the holiday, CBC is reporting:

Ontario reported another 16,714 COVID-19 cases on Sunday, down from Saturday's pandemic record-breaking 18,445 cases.

However, as Public Health Ontario warned on Saturday, the daily case record was "an underestimate" given changes to testing eligibility and Omicron's quick spread.

The number of people in ICUs across the province with a COVID-related illness jumped overnight to 224 on Sunday from 214 on Saturday. The seven-day average currently sits at 199.

In total, 1,117 people are in hospitals provincewide as a result of COVID-19.
 
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