News   Sep 06, 2024
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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

My old people aren’t saying much. Seven of them have died. Another one had a mild case of COVID. Another one has been fine but has been following “the rules”

My sincere condolences.

It's weird.....the oldsters in Europe in my family (which 90% of them) have all had mild to no symptoms upon infection.

My oldsters here are shut-in, but don't care about us visiting. They lived through proper socially existential crises so this isn't going to stop them from seeing their family.
 
There's a decent chance we'll need it more frequently (every 1-2 years).
RNA vaccines are so new we really won't know until 2023 or so. It will be interesting if the vaccine, which as thus far been able to deal with mutations can work against other coronaviruses. The common cold is one for example, a virus with the same or similar spikes as Covid19. Perhaps we've cured the common cold and don't yet know it.

I saw on CBC that Canada is rushing to create a vaccine production and research facility. This will be useful in 2023 or whenever the next pandemic comes.

 
I have a thought experiment, based on my own life:

So, I've been suicidal for almost 20 years. Depression and on-off anxiety problems. Some other more minor dysmorphic issues as well, but never mind those.
Being shut in and being precluded from even going for a hike at Mt Nemo without having to jump through hoops and book online with a credit card I don't have. Being told to socially isolate. Etc
As someone who lives alone and has suffered from mental health issues for their entire adult life, this has been a bit exacerbatory, if you know what I mean.
I'm in my mid-30s. Work full time. Massively net contributor to society.

These restrictions already caused me to develop an alcohol problem last year (I put an end to it now, but the danger was there).
What if they exacerbated my suicidal tendencies and I took my mental defect to its logical conclusion?

Would my lost life be worth less than that of someone who has already lived theirs to the fullest?
Are they equally important?

If they are equally important, then why do our plague restrictions not reflect that?
 
Yeah, the shortened opening hours I think is a bad idea as well. I understand they want people to stay home at home more and not shop, but we (most of us hopefully?) are down to groceries and essentials (toiletries, batteries, etc) as it is.

It's a terrible idea because it concentrates the amount of people at any given location. Which is the exact opposite of what these geniuses claim to want.

What are the spikes since December coming from?

Work.
School.
Congregate settings.



I still see a few people on the streets (St. Lawrence Market area) not wearing masks, but I guess if it's outside it's OK?

Yes, it's ok. Not wearing wearing masks outdoors is not going to increase transmission.

How good is our contact tracing program?
Lol! It died months ago.
 
I enjoyed your post and the work you put into it and then I got to the bottom.
Anti-maskers are indeed welcome to shut it, as masks are a very obvious and harmless form of transmission prevention.
The same can't be said for some of our lockdown restrictions. Conflating the two is a bit much from someone as intelligent as yourself.
Anit-maskers and Anti-Lockdowners tend to go hand in hand. Many are parroting terrible ideas (like the Great Barrington Debate) simply because it validates their selfishness. Others are resisting both because of "freedom".

I'm just wondering why you put in a disclaimer that the fatality rate will increase as the number of infection cases increases. Is there proof of this elsewhere? I thought the fatality rate was a steady 2-3% worldwide, regardless of case rate.
The death rate follows the infection confirmation by about 3 weeks. So our death rate is relative to the confirmed infections from 3 weeks ago, and not the current confirmed infections. We're currently at near capacity and if the numbers surpass that capacity over the next few weeks, there'll be insufficient treatment, equipment and space and more people will die that could've been saved otherwise.

In any case, the number of dead is the number of dead. Who will mourn the ruined lives of the future?

We have utterly failed to apply rational restrictions and to support people properly, given the restrictions we do have.
Government has failed to support individuals, and failed to enforce its own edicts. Governments are the reason this has gone worse for some than others. Ford deserves to get turfed for the way he's handled this; telegraphing things days in advance for businesses, while slowing everything down that affects individuals.

All of that still doesn't mean that vague and bad restrictions are meant to be ignored. Those intentionally gathering in groups, restaurants who secretly opened when dine-in was closed and politicians going gathering with family or going on vacation all know what they're doing is wrong.
 
RNA vaccines are so new we really won't know until 2023 or so.

I don't think it has anything to do with the type of vaccine it is, but rather its mechanism of action, which may seem like the same thing, but isn't.
I don't know what adjuvants are used in the two currently-used mRNA vaccines, but from what I do know about their mechanism of action, they only instruct cells to produce the protein spike of the SARS virion. Which allows the immune system to recognise that particular protein spike as a target.
Different types of vaccine work in a similar way, though may use whole virus cells for immune response priming.

Any and all types of vaccines being developed for this virus could prove to be short-acting, depending on viral mutations in future.

So, it's more a case of viral mutation potential than of the type of vaccine it is.


This will be useful in 2023 or whenever the next pandemic comes.

🤣

I love your optimism.

Imagine: 2021, December....life goes back to normal. 2023, January......."Nothing to see here, just pneumonia" starts coming out of China again.

Please no. hahaha
 
What are the spikes since December coming from? Private parties (both commercial like those busted bars and residential house parties)? People not respecting quarantine? I still see a few people on the streets (St. Lawrence Market area) not wearing masks, but I guess if it's outside it's OK? These new restrictions really don't seem to be getting to the heart of the spikes. How good is our contact tracing program?

Before boxing day most of Ontario had stores/restaurants/malls were all open for Christmas shoppers and indoor diners.

In light of the anecdote from @gabe the other day...........

I was encouraged to see the family of someone who died of Covid, and worked in a Cargill meat-packing plant in Alberta went to police last week and insisted on opening a criminal investigation into his death; and whether the company was guilty of criminal negligence in regards to same.


From that story, familiar facts:

The written complaint suggests Benito Quesada died due to criminal negligence and alleges the following failures by Cargill to prevent the spread of the virus:

  • The company failed to provide adequate PPE.
  • Workers on production lines were not physically distant.
  • Lunchrooms were crowded, with tables less than half a metre apart.
  • Company medical personnel cleared workers for duty despite positive COVID-19 tests or symptoms.
  • Workers faced unpaid, temporary layoff if they didn't report for work out of fear of the virus.
  • Workers were promised a $500 bonus for not missing a shift over a two-month period.

Hopefully the RCMP will take the complaint seriously; charges being laid would be one of the few things likely to make a difference.

The Cargill plant in Guelph is connected to 182 Covid cases including one death, from last month's outbreak.

 
The Cargill plant in Guelph is connected to 182 Covid cases including one death, from last month's outbreak.


This is what I'm saying.

We're seeing a mix of restrictions that either do nothing; increase risk; or serve to annoy people for very little benefit....................WHILE

Omitting any meaningful restrictions in the high-risk environments that would do the greatest good.

I struggle to understand how what we're seeing is occurring.
 
Anit-maskers and Anti-Lockdowners tend to go hand in hand.

They can, but aren't necessarily the same.
I'm fairly well set against a good deal of our lockdown measures but was wearing a mask in indoor public spaces months before it was a requirement. But then, I'm a rational man of science.....which some days seems to be a rarity. ;)

Many are parroting terrible ideas (like the Great Barrington Debate) simply because it validates their selfishness. Others are resisting both because of "freedom".
Yeah, I don't put much stock into being against plague measures for the purpose of protecting abstractly-defined freedoms. Rather, I find there has been a serious lack of foresight in terms of unintended consequences and lack of evidence on the efficacy of some restrictions. This, measured against personal freedoms that are guaranteed but only exist as long as they don't infringe on the freedoms of others (in this case, right to life, perhaps) has been severely lacking in any sort of rational rationale.


The death rate follows the infection confirmation by about 3 weeks. So our death rate is relative to the confirmed infections from 3 weeks ago, and not the current confirmed infections. We're currently at near capacity and if the numbers surpass that capacity over the next few weeks, there'll be insufficient treatment, equipment and space and more people will die that could've been saved otherwise.

Ah, yes, that makes sense.
But is there evidence from elsewhere that such instances significantly impacted the fatality rate of the disease? I'm not aware of any.

Don't forget that the infection case rates are vastly under-reported due to the vast majority of cases being asymptomatic or of mild symptom, ergo, the fatality rate is likely much lower than is currently considered.

It isn't the case that this is a particularly deadly virus. It simply isn't. Ebola is, for example. Or HIV used to be.
It's just very virulent and so transmissible. Obviously, the higher the case load, the higher the death toll.
In real terms, yes, this plague is quite deadly, but 2-3% fatality rate is not bad at all when considering some other viruses.


All of that still doesn't mean that vague and bad restrictions are meant to be ignored. Those intentionally gathering in groups, restaurants who secretly opened when dine-in was closed and politicians going gathering with family or going on vacation all know what they're doing is wrong.

I can agree with that. Even I've kept up with most regulations most of the time. No, almost entirely actually. The only thing I may have disregarded was the strict social bubbles of last summer. I kept it to under 10 actually, but it wasn't mutually exclusive. I also have left town a lot to get out in nature because I can't just sit here in town without completely losing my mind.
 
Well that was an extremely depressing doctors’ briefing. They were quite clear about what we have to do. It’s now up to the government to legislate. I’m not convinced this government will actually follow thorough with the harder decisions until they absolutely have to. I’m also not convinced the public is interested in doing the right thing either.
 
Another bureaucratice travesty, in addition to the dismantling of the pandemic early warning system. (If you haven't read about that one in depth and feel like being vexed......check it out)



Source
The thing with these "early warnings" is they get lost in the noise. I bet this data was embedded in a simple daily briefing email which was distributed and ignored because it was one of the 500 emails a day received by the people who could act on it, but, since it had not contained anything critical in the previous 1,000 times they received it, they didn't look at it. It's not a failing of bureaucracy. It's very difficult to push information to the top of the list of people who receive incredibly large amounts of it every day. Even if you can, discussion is often deferred to an agenda item on a later monthly conference call because they have so many things that are urgently needed to be done right now they can't take the time to think about it.
 
The thing with these "early warnings" is they get lost in the noise. I bet this data was embedded in a simple daily briefing email which was distributed and ignored because it was one of the 500 emails a day received by the people who could act on it, but, since it had not contained anything critical in the previous 1,000 times they received it, they either didn't look at it. It's not a failing of beuracracy. It's very difficult to push information to the top of the list of people who receive incredibly large amounts of it every day. Even if you can, it is often relagated to an agenda item on a monthly conference call.

No, it is a failing of bureaucracy. The PHAC's early warning system was systematically dismantled by managers who knew nothing about public health.
 
  • Shorter hours for essential businesses, which would involve earlier closures and later openings.
All this does is increase crowding and lineups. That increases risk of transmission rather than decreases it. Basic math, policy fail.

We're moving one step closer to getting a Quebec style curfew as part of the next round of ineffective restrictions that will be announced soon enough.
 
I can see it being a Hepatitis style vaccination where you need a booster every 10-20 years.

IIRC, booster shots for Hepatitis are only for certain vaccines that were administered during specific times in the past. As in, not everyone who has been vaccinated needs a booster.
 
Do you think it's only LTC patients looking after other LTC patients? If that were the case, it wouldn't have gotten into LTC homes to begin with. Stop with this Great Barrington Declaration argument. It's garbage, easily debunked and a completely selfish perspective.

The point is WE KNOW where the most issues and the most deaths are coming from and that's LTCs. Why are we worrying about spread in the general population when that isn't the biggest problem instead of diverting the majority of resources to protecting LTCs? Its not that difficult to do if you take the proper measures which is why some LTCs in Toronto suffered few infections and deaths during the 1st wave because they took early action BEFORE the Ford government told them to do so.

Even if we want to say the 1st wave caught the government off guard, there's absolutely NO EXCUSE that LTCs should be having such significant problems again in the 2nd wave when the lessons should've been learned and the so called 'iron ring' that Doug Ford promised to protect LTCs should've been in place before the 2nd wave hit.


You know that long prior to Covid when anyone had the slightest of colds there, they wore a mask right? Do you know they have an ingrained level of respect for others (and respect for the value of shame); so much so that the idea of making someone else sick is life-altering and disgraceful? Their outlook on the world is social and not individual. They have a vastly different culture that just can't be transplanted here instantaneously. We in the west have a culture of selfishness and a sociopathic lack of shame in comparison. My wife lived there for four years and we have many Japanese friends.

Please, stop with this fallacious argument, when your previous LTC statement demonstrates to me you wouldn't even "get" how the Japanese think or their actions during this..

The things you seemed to have missed is that yes mask wearing is common place in Japan and many other asian countries, but THEY ARE NOT social distancing and THEY ARE NOT stopping their people from gathering in large crowds. How does any of that have to do with Japanese culture?

Here is one of many videos on youtube showing how the Japanese population are living their lives compared to us right now:


As you can see, many if not most people are wearing masks in public, BUT do you see ANY ATTEMPTS AT ALL by those people to social distance? Do you see those huge crowds everywhere? Apparently they're all very 'selfish' when no one is making any attempt at all to stay apart or stay home to not spread the virus I guess.
 

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