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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)
- Thread starter AlvinofDiaspar
- Start date
Pow Wow
New Member
Has anyone read the Great Barrington Declaration?
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by (see link):
https://gbdeclaration.org/
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by (see link):
https://gbdeclaration.org/
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AlbertC
Superstar
Peel Regional Police say 29 people have been charged after officers broke up a house party attended by around 60 people in Mississauga early Sunday.
A police spokesperson said they were called to a home in the area of Ninth Line and Deepwood Heights at 12:15 a.m. for reports of a large gathering.
Around 12:30 a.m., police and bylaw officers arrived and numerous people fled, the spokesperson said, adding that 29 were unable to leave.
Police worked with bylaw officers to identify those individuals and 25 tickets for $880 were issued for violations of the Reopening Ontario Act.
Two party hosts were also identified, police said, and they have been summoned to court where they could face a penalty of up to $10,000.
globalnews.ca
A police spokesperson said they were called to a home in the area of Ninth Line and Deepwood Heights at 12:15 a.m. for reports of a large gathering.
Around 12:30 a.m., police and bylaw officers arrived and numerous people fled, the spokesperson said, adding that 29 were unable to leave.
Police worked with bylaw officers to identify those individuals and 25 tickets for $880 were issued for violations of the Reopening Ontario Act.
Two party hosts were also identified, police said, and they have been summoned to court where they could face a penalty of up to $10,000.
29 charged after around 60 people attend Mississauga house party: police - Toronto | Globalnews.ca
A police spokesperson said they were called to a home in the area of Ninth Line and Deepwood Heights at 12:15 a.m. for reports of a large gathering.
globalnews.ca
lenaitch
Senior Member
Two party hosts were also identified, police said, and they have been summoned to court where they could face a penalty of up to $10,000.
29 charged after around 60 people attend Mississauga house party: police - Toronto | Globalnews.ca
A police spokesperson said they were called to a home in the area of Ninth Line and Deepwood Heights at 12:15 a.m. for reports of a large gathering.
And that's the way to do it. Issuing an offence notice with a $750 out-of-court fine for either those trying to make a stand or 'profession party hosters' doesn't cut it.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I’d like to see the statistics myself so I can understand how Covid is impacting the “regular“ mortality of Canadians. Here’s Stats Canada https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310070801
Total deaths from all causes (medical, accidental, homicide, suicide, etc.)
2015 - 264,333
2016 - 267, 213
2017 - 276,689
2018 - 283,706
2019 - 284,082
As of yesterday, according to the CBC’s Covid tracker we’re at 12,031 Covid deaths for 2020, with 1,896 deaths from Nov 1st to the 29th. The five day average is about 80 deaths per day, so we can assume November’s total deaths will be about 1,975. Looking at the upward trendline of deaths we can assume that December will be higher than November, let’s put it at 2,500 deaths for December. Negligent social distances practices over Christmas holiday celebrations will likely rack up a record number of dead in Jan 2021, but let’s stick to 2020 for now.
Total Covid deaths in 2020 should be about 14,530. The average total deaths of the last five years is 275,000, avg of last three year is 281,000 deaths. If we‘re not accepting the denialist‘s notion that “dying with Covid” is messing with statistics, but that all Covid-related deaths are deaths from Covid, then total Canadian deaths from all causes in 2020 should spike at between 289,530 and 295,530 dead.
As an aside, I wonder what's driving the total deaths up from 2015? Aging population certainly, but 2019 is 19,749 deaths or 7.5% higher than 2015. Looking here at 2000 to 2019, it just keeps increasing, so yes, it must be aging population.
Total deaths from all causes (medical, accidental, homicide, suicide, etc.)
2015 - 264,333
2016 - 267, 213
2017 - 276,689
2018 - 283,706
2019 - 284,082
As of yesterday, according to the CBC’s Covid tracker we’re at 12,031 Covid deaths for 2020, with 1,896 deaths from Nov 1st to the 29th. The five day average is about 80 deaths per day, so we can assume November’s total deaths will be about 1,975. Looking at the upward trendline of deaths we can assume that December will be higher than November, let’s put it at 2,500 deaths for December. Negligent social distances practices over Christmas holiday celebrations will likely rack up a record number of dead in Jan 2021, but let’s stick to 2020 for now.
Total Covid deaths in 2020 should be about 14,530. The average total deaths of the last five years is 275,000, avg of last three year is 281,000 deaths. If we‘re not accepting the denialist‘s notion that “dying with Covid” is messing with statistics, but that all Covid-related deaths are deaths from Covid, then total Canadian deaths from all causes in 2020 should spike at between 289,530 and 295,530 dead.
As an aside, I wonder what's driving the total deaths up from 2015? Aging population certainly, but 2019 is 19,749 deaths or 7.5% higher than 2015. Looking here at 2000 to 2019, it just keeps increasing, so yes, it must be aging population.
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DSC
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This site has been referenced before but I post it again as they really have LOTS of comparative covid figures:
tiffer24
Senior Member
Northern Light
Superstar
The baby boomers, the single largest cohort in our population are reaching the age at which folks begin to pass on in larger numbers.
The oldest of this group is now 73.
So we're not yet in the peak-period of deaths by any means; totals will rise annually for the next decade or so. Then plateau before a modest decline (which would be larger but for high levels of immigration, which will add to the totals in the fullness of time as our population itself grows).
I should add, even though the vast majority of our immigrants are not elderly, that immigration still drives these numbers up as immigrants are every bit as likely to die of accident/injury or a disease like cancer, well short of their golden years.
Canada's population rises by about 1.4% per year
So on a 5-year time scale we have about 8% more people.
TrickyRicky
Senior Member
Substantial increases in drug overdoes are also having an appreciable impact on total deaths.
I also don't think you can compare year-to-year death numbers to get an accurate picture of the impact of Covid-19 on overall deaths. Lockdown measures have reduced overall activity and that activity reduction will decrease deaths. I would speculate there could also be an uptick in suicides. In the wash, I would suspect there to be little change in overall deaths other than the continued climb in opioid over-doses.
I also don't think you can compare year-to-year death numbers to get an accurate picture of the impact of Covid-19 on overall deaths. Lockdown measures have reduced overall activity and that activity reduction will decrease deaths. I would speculate there could also be an uptick in suicides. In the wash, I would suspect there to be little change in overall deaths other than the continued climb in opioid over-doses.
Northern Light
Superstar
We do know, because Ontario has done some of this analysis, that a number of people; at this point we're certainly well north of a hundred, but how much so is unclear, who have died as result of delayed surgery or other medical care (delayed access to diagnostic tests or specialists may delay treatment such as radiation therapy)
Admiral Beez
Superstar
It's a good point. How many vulnerable people didn't catch the flu this year. But still, at the end of the day, if Canada's total deaths in 2020 do not increase during Covid it will make for interesting statistics in years to come, when we look back on the trillion dollar debt numbers and see no uptick in deaths, or what statisticians are calling "excess mortality". People may ask, why did we spend all that money if deaths were not impacted. Someone will need to reply, the deaths would have been much higher if we hadn't, just look at the USA, UK, Spain or Italy.
Or, because we spent all of that money, deaths were not impacted.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Good old paradox - a successful pandemic mitigation strategy should be invisible.
AoD
AoD
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Coolstar
Senior Member
Kenney Targets South Asians For COVID Spike, Says Nothing About Anti-Maskers
Alberta's Premier remains tight-lipped about hundreds of Calgarians who protested relatively lax pandemic restrictions—after going on-air to appeal to South Asians over virus surges.
www.vice.com