TrickyRicky
Senior Member
PinkLucy, we truly don’t know but if there is anything I learned from the Covid-19 pandemic it’s that we (that is we in the West and particularly North America) have an extreme special case bias. Our bias is so deep and ingrained that I would consider it a fundamental flaw in our logical reasoning.
We don’t know if herd immunity is possible or how effective a vaccine will be; however the evidence is iterating towards more effective than a flu vaccine (around 60%) but less effective than a measles vaccine (95%). Furthermore, absence of immunity doesn’t mean no benefit if vaccination reduces the severity of future infection in the vaccinated population which is likely.
The combination of medical treatments and improved procedures halved mortality rates to date. They will likely half mortality rates again by 2021. Combine this with the percent of people already infected or exposed (including many of out most vulnerable) a say 80% effective vaccine with some lifetime reduction in disease severity for most people vaccinated and the covid-19 pandemic will be curtailed.
In the special case however people will still get covid-19 and die, even probably some people who got vaccinated.
We don’t know if herd immunity is possible or how effective a vaccine will be; however the evidence is iterating towards more effective than a flu vaccine (around 60%) but less effective than a measles vaccine (95%). Furthermore, absence of immunity doesn’t mean no benefit if vaccination reduces the severity of future infection in the vaccinated population which is likely.
The combination of medical treatments and improved procedures halved mortality rates to date. They will likely half mortality rates again by 2021. Combine this with the percent of people already infected or exposed (including many of out most vulnerable) a say 80% effective vaccine with some lifetime reduction in disease severity for most people vaccinated and the covid-19 pandemic will be curtailed.
In the special case however people will still get covid-19 and die, even probably some people who got vaccinated.