Next Mayor of Toronto?

[js97]

and explain to voters over and over and over why the Relief Line is for all of the city residents and not just ‘downtowners’. .

No matter how you spin it, a DRL doesn't put a stop in their ward unless you start the plan in the burbs. I think that's where it's completely flawed - Suburbanites don't mind the crowd, they would like access to a station. As someone that has to frequent Scarborough, I can tell you there is no way you'll ever be able to 'spin' a DRL is for the benefit for them.


P.S. An improper LRT implementation is effectively no different than a streetcar. A 'production' example of this is the Minneapolis LRT from the airport to the city- it's fantastic when stops are at least 1km+ with no street lights, but comes to a crawl when it enters the city core, when stops are <1km and streets lights get in the way.

 

[dt_toronto_geek]

A time-out for a laugh. You MUST check this out, it has to be seen to be believed. The article is pretty funny too. My favorate: Ford offering candy, with cyanide, to reporters.

http://nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=195027

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I would hold lots of town hall meetings in the key areas of the city where there is transit already (near subway stations) or where transit is being planned (planned LRT lines) – the downtown, Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York. I would lay out a very, very strong transit plan and explain to voters over and over and over why the Relief Line is for all of the city residents and not just ‘downtowners’. I would hand out flyers showing the Relief Line with simple details why it's a subway line for everyone in the city. That in itself shows the want to unite the city on the transit file and not divide it....

I've seen some of these town halls. They're vicious. Many of the people there don't care about proper planning. They just want subways, regardless of price or if its an effective mode of transport.

 

[W. K. Lis]

There are rumors that Karen Stintz may resign from the chair of the TTC when she officially and formally starts her campaign for Mayor of Toronto. Do not resign. Do not play by the Ford brothers rules. They make them up and change them as they go on. Stay on to the very end.

Others upcoming candidates should do the same.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

I've seen some of these town halls. They're vicious. Many of the people there don't care about proper planning. They just want subways, regardless of price or if its an effective mode of transport.

But at least it gives voters a chance to speak with a candidate and the candidate to lay out a vision.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Which mayor was that? You do know that under Miller the amalgamated city grew to more employees than the individual cities before amalgamation? That we still have their old city halls that we don't need?

What's wrong with having more employees? First of all, the total population of Toronto has grown since the mid-1990s, so we should have more employees. Second, people have long complained about the lack of services in the city, especially right after amalgamation. Sure, people may cheer "hiring freezes" when they're promised in elections. But then they wonder why public infrastructure sits around so long without getting repaired, or why there doesn't seem to be anyone coordinating hydro repairs and road repairs, etc.

Also, what's wrong with keeping the old city halls? As a Scarberian myself, I don't want Scarborough's major public square to be sold off and all the municipal jobs moved downtown. If anything, I'd love to see the city invest in the Scarborough Civic Centre just like Mississauga has done for theirs. Anyway, we've had three mayors already. Why blame Miller in particular for not selling off the old suburban civic centres? Seems like a very bizarre way to evaluate his tenure.

 

[historydude2012]

The math really works out against Ford.

The man has almost no support in Old Toronto (including East York), which makes up a third of Toronto’s population. He’ll be lucky to get 20% of the vote down there.

In the Ford “strongholds†( ) of Scarborough, Etobickoe, North York and York he has roughly 50% approval. Now if through some kind of miracle he somehow manages to convince each and every person who’s part of that 50% to vote for him, he’ll get roughly 42% of the vote overall. That’s his absolute best case scenario. It will be exceedingly difficult for him to win an election with 42% of the vote. I don’t think it’s ever been done before in Toronto.

Realistically speaking, the best case scenario won’t be happening for Ford. In 2014 there will be plenty of right-of-centre, subway champions in the race. They’ll almost certainly manage to get some of the 50% of people that approve of Ford’s job in Scarborough, Etobickoe, York and North York onto their team (Ford has always polled lower when put up against other candidates than he does with his approval polling). Assuming that Ford can convince 40% of people in those boroughs an 20% of people in Old Toronto to vote for him, he’ll get 35.1% of the vote overall. There is no way he can win an election with numbers that low.

Ford's biggest mistake so far has been his contempt for Old Toronto. He threw away almost a third of his potential vote.

Barbara Hall back in 1994 won with like 43%

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Barbara Hall back in 1994 won with like 43%

Remember, this is the best case scenario assuming that everyone who approves of his job outside of Old Toronto votes for him. That won't be happening. Ford has always polled lower when put up against other candidates then he does with his approval rating.

But I suppose the guy does have a chance. A very, very small chance. Maybe he'll pull off a miracle

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Which mayor was that? You do know that under Miller the amalgamated city grew to more employees than the individual cities before amalgamation? That we still have their old city halls that we don't need?

Our population has exploded as well. We need more employees to provide services to more Torontonians.

 

[Solid Snake]

I would hold lots of town hall meetings in the key areas of the city where there is transit already (near subway stations) or where transit is being planned (planned LRT lines) – the downtown, Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York.

Anyone near the Bloor-Danforth line will love the DRL since they will be to ones who will be able to go downtown by bypassing Bloor-Yonge, Spadina and St.Georges and get a guarantee seat. It really won't change anything for the suburban passenger from Finch West or Sheppard East at all. The LRT will get them faster to the same subway stop they always went to. Nothing will change on the Yonge line north of Bloor.

I would lay out a very, very strong transit plan and explain to voters over and over and over why the Relief Line is for all of the city residents and not just ‘downtowners’. I would hand out flyers showing the Relief Line with simple details why it's a subway line for everyone in the city. That in itself shows the want to unite the city on the transit file and not divide it.

Everyone knows and acknowledge that already, no matter where they live in the city. This line is badly needed and everyone agrees on how positive it would be for the city. Without targeting you, people don't like being taken for idiots. Anyone who can read a map will quickly understand that it doesn't enter the suburbs so it won't affect them that much. Trying to fool people otherwise is what upsets people. It's a "Downtown relief line". Period.

If you absolutely want to sell it, you sell it as a "phase I" and "Phase II" will go up on Don Mills to Sheppard or Finch and to north-West towards Etobicoke in the futur but we have to start with Phase I

I’d suggest she should come out swinging about the whole LRT vs Subway debate. She needs to remind voters that she didn’t flip flop on subways with Ford – she has stated that there was no money for Sheppard and it would have been fiscally irresponsible to start planning the Sheppard Subway extension.

She did "flip-flop". She told Ford that she would build subways before getting her position as the TTC chair. She knew in advance what the mayor wanted to do and everyone knew before he got elected that his chances of getting the private sector on board were slim to none but poor her... she couldn't see it. She just wanted the TTC position and she flipped later. that's all.

That flip wasn't even all that bad. Maybe she did have a change of heart and maybe she truly believed the mayor's plan, when no one else would. Her worse flip flop was on the Scarborough subway file. Her standing at a Scarborough town meeting, telling people they weren't getting the subway and it was final to then a few months later being a champion on the issue...maybe someone had dream of becoming mayor and realized that she would need those votes from those angry Scarberians(?) if she was to stand a chance... She won't escape the flip flop label during the campaign.

She should hammer why LRTs are not streetcars, why we should invest in our local transit and why she “flip-flopped” on the Scarborough subway. She can say she did flip-flopped, but she can also argue that transit IS coming to Scarborough and to all parts of Toronto and she wants to truly bring the city together as one city.

It's not about the vehicle but how they are operated. The Transit City model for Sheppard and Finch with a stop interval of 400-450m makes it a glorified streetcar. If Metrolinx drops a few stop and TTC operates a parallel bus service than that's another story.

One city as her "One City plan"? People will remember that Harper and Ford pretty much delivered that subway after both the Province and team Stinz who condescendingly told Scarborough "deal with it" and Glen "Save my seat" De Baermaker flip flop. The feds were key for that subway and that's what people will remember.

I think meeting possible voters on the subway, especially at the Bloor-Yonge station at rush hour and campaign on transit expansion and the importance of the Relief Line would work in her favour. No way Ford would do something like that.

People already knows the importance of the Relief line. If there's anything those battle at city hall taught us, is that the city can't deliver a subway line. It's whoever signs the check. The only thing a candidate can really do is to ask our permission to lobby their own plan to the higher level of government.

I think she should shoot a few different kinds of commercials – commercials that have her talking to the camera, explaining who she is, what she is all about, what her plans are, etc. She should also shoot one or two commercials about getting the Relief Line built.

Waste of resources... The next campaign will be such an ugly and dirty campaign. She should focus on her campaign as a whole and defending herself from the Ford clan.

TTC can promote the DRL.

 

[diminutive]

This entire conversation is so depressing. All of the candidates suck. Ford's a terrible Mayor, so I'm supposed to be happy that Stintz is running? The woman is a craven NIMBY who has no platform or idea about anything beyond her own success. All she's done on the TTC is flip-flop from one transit plan to another, trying to build up as much as clout she can for her next political move.

Torontonians need to look past the clown-ish individuals our government seems to attract. We're one of the most intelligent cities in the country. If our government is constantly occupied between boor-ish morons like the Fords, self serving hacks like Stintz or the Helen Lovejoys like Gord Perks it says more about how totally messed up our 'political' system is.

It's not even really about politics! We can't speak even speak about identifiable political movements in this city! It's all about who can yell the loudest. There's no way to hold anyone accountable. Stintz has proposed so many failed transit plans she 'ought to be totally disqualified. Yet our institutions of accountability are totally messed up.

We need to start talking about reforming the actual institutions of governance. We need political parties to improve accountability. We need a stronger mayor who will be accountable for policy outcomes. It's not good enough to have these yahoos elected on parochial Ward platforms, then come together in an amorphous pool of diffused responsibility where nobody is ultimately accountable, propose whatever hair brained schemes they think will win votes, then go back to the electorate every four years blaming something else for the lack of progress.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Remember, this is the best case scenario assuming that everyone who approves of his job outside of Old Toronto votes for him. That won't be happening. Ford has always polled lower when put up against other candidates then he does with his approval rating.

But I suppose the guy does have a chance. A very, very small chance. Maybe he'll pull off a miracle

Agree completely. It's not like Ford has NO chance. It's just that there are many more scenarios in which he looses than wins. With a consistent disapproval rating of 55-60%, he's going to have to bank on all 40-45% of the electorate that have voiced approval (no matter how tepid) to actually vote for him, and that the other candidates split the rest of the votes. This is scenario is becoming more and more unrealistic as more suburban, right-leaning candidates look to be entering the race. Even someone like Stintz who is considered more of a "centrists" than a conservative has made early signals that she plans to target Ford voters directly by campaigning as a fiscal conservative.

As you say, it's all about the math.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Anyone seen this poll on possible election results without Ford in the mix: http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/...O_Trial_Heats_(2013.09.23)_Forum_Research.pdf

Brief summary of results:

1. Tory over Chow (43% vs. 39%)
2. Chow over Stintz (47 vs. 20)
3. Chow over Minnan-Wong (52 vs. 16)
4. Tory and Chow tie against Stintz (35 vs. 35 vs. 12)
5. Chow over Stintz and Minnan-Wong (43 vs. 14 vs. 13)

 

[jaycola]

The money from other levels of government isn't irrelevant - that's the entire point.

Toronto in general submits far more in tax revenue that it receives in investment. Toronto needs investment. His inability to attract proper investment from other levels of government is yet another of Ford's failures.

The point is that some think the governments spend too much money already. A flat budget should be the goal while the city get and province get their spending under control. More from the province is more from the people. There is no more coming around without affecting the household budgets of families and individuals. The Liberal provincial government has flushed billions of dollars down the drain in recent years and people on this thread are still complaining about what Harris did more than 12 years ago. How about what the Liberals wasted yesterday. There is your "Relief Line", it is in Ornge ($1 Billion) E-health ($1 Billion) Gas Plants ($1.1 Billion). Add to that millions in single source contracts to Bombardier and Samsung and total failure on improving our energy supply and people here have to point back to what happened last century to blame Harris?

The city of Toronto has over 33,000 employees. Some people believe that governments have to do with less. There is no more going to the trough and if Ford did one thing, and I do not know how to state this more clearly, he stemmed the tide of huge annual budget increases and many see that as a positive.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Our population has exploded as well. We need more employees to provide services to more Torontonians.

In 1996, Toronto's population was 2,385,421. In 2001, it was 2,481,494. By 2006, 2,503,281. Now by 2011, it was 2,615,060. An increase of 229,639. Not counting non-Toronto residents coming in from the 905 to work or use Toronto's services. Keeping the same number of employees as it was in 1996 and now means that the same number has to serve more people.