Next Mayor of Toronto?

[Silence&Motion]

The point is that some think the governments spend too much money already. A flat budget should be the goal while the city get and province get their spending under control. More from the province is more from the people. There is no more coming around without affecting the household budgets of families and individuals. The Liberal provincial government has flushed billions of dollars down the drain in recent years and people on this thread are still complaining about what Harris did more than 12 years ago. How about what the Liberals wasted yesterday. There is your "Relief Line", it is in Ornge ($1 Billion) E-health ($1 Billion) Gas Plants ($1.1 Billion). Add to that millions in single source contracts to Bombardier and Samsung and total failure on improving our energy supply and people here have to point back to what happened last century to blame Harris?

The city of Toronto has over 33,000 employees. Some people believe that governments have to do with less. There is no more going to the trough and if Ford did one thing, and I do not know how to state this more clearly, he stemmed the tide of huge annual budget increases and many see that as a positive.

So basically, until political scandals are completely eliminated from our society, we should basically stop expanding any public services, despite a steadily increasing population? Good luck with that.

Again, it's completely useless to just talk in generalities about how many employees the city has. It's even more useless to throw around "Fordisms" like "going to the trough". The question is, if you think the city of Toronto is doing too much, then you have to identity which services you want cut. Or how you would maintain the same level of services with fewer people. You can't just pick a number at random and say 33,000 is too many people. Of course Ford has always lacked the political courage to come out and demand actual service cuts.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Anyone seen this poll on possible election results without Ford in the mix: http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/...O_Trial_Heats_(2013.09.23)_Forum_Research.pdf

Brief summary of results:

1. Tory over Chow (43% vs. 39%)
2. Chow over Stintz (47 vs. 20)
3. Chow over Minnan-Wong (52 vs. 16)
4. Tory and Chow tie against Stintz (35 vs. 35 vs. 12)
5. Chow over Stintz and Minnan-Wong (43 vs. 14 vs. 13)

Something that caught my eye:

It looks like if Tory ran he could steal Ford of ~50% of people who voted for him last time. Of course this is a hypothetical race where Ford isn't running, but this is still something that is very important to keep in mind nevertheless. It means that Ford could lose a huge amount of his voters to Tory if they were both to run.

Also Chow would grab a quarter of former Ford voters if Ford weren't to run. This shows that not all of Ford supporters are hard core right wingers (unsurprisingly). Many are people like my father, who are have no clear political affiliation (votes for both left and right) and were seduced by Fords anti-tax, pro-car messaging, but were later off-put by Ford's destructive nature and poor track record. If Ford does run he'll almost certainly lose this block of former supporters.

The last thing is that Chow seems to have a huge amount of support among people who didn't vote in the last election. This could mean one of two things:

1. 2010 had poor voter turnout numbers. All the trouble that has come out of City Hall for the past four years has made Torontonians more eager to take political action. This will greatly benefit Chow since she'll be getting the largest chunk of new voters.

2. These potential Chow supporters didn't care enough to vote back in 2010 and they won't care in 2014 either. This will definitely hurt Chow.

 

[MetroMan]

Good job on the number crunching TheTigerMaster. As they stand now, the numbers are terribly out of favour with Ford and there's an increasing likelihood that he won't even come in second. Anything can happen though as we saw with Ford's first win to begin with. However, this time he has a record to defend, "accomplishments" that are easy to disprove for anybody doing the least bit of research and we know that he'll never look good in an actual head on debate with either Stintz or Chow. They'll make him look foolish like Josh Matlow so easily did during the LRT/Subway debate.

There's also money and organization to consider. Earlier this year, Stintz was vying to become the official Conservative flag barer and the donation rolodex that it came with. That didn't appear to pan out with top Conservatives were looking outside City Hall for who they would run. Instead, it seems that she has a mix of Liberals and Conservatives on her campaign so my guess is that she took Smitherman's campaign machine and funding. Will true Conservatives back Ford though? He's been an abysmal failure if what you were looking for was advancing the Conservative agenda. Is Tory still being looked at or are they going to play it "safe" with their incumbent Mayor?

Who's going to run Ford's campaign? Kouvalis has reaffirmed that he's out and he's made some interesting nods to "moving forward", which are Karen Stintz's words. From the way it looks going in, Ford has no positive prospects for campaign organization and much less potential money committed than the last time. He won't need an expensive campaign because he already has the name recognition but he'll need talented organizers volunteering to get the vote out on election day. Who will work for him?

Then again, one must be prepared for any scenario. Chow, Stintz and Tory might have enough fuel in the tank to make it through to the end. A 3 way split amongst them might just allow the committed Ford Nation voters to get him past the 3 bickering for the anti Ford vote. All we can do is wait and see how things develop. We'll have a better idea if we're going in with a good margin around the Spring, not so much early in January when some candidates (including Chow) might not have registered and certainly won't have started their full fledged campaigns in earnest.

 

[BurlOak]

1. 2010 had poor voter turnout numbers. All the trouble that has come out of City Hall for the past four years has made Torontonians more eager to take political action. This will greatly benefit Chow since she'll be getting the largest chunk of new voters.

2. These potential Chow supporters didn't care enough to vote back in 2010 and they won't care in 2014 either. This will definitely hurt Chow.

I thought 2010 had the highest voter turnout since the Mega City was formed.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'm really worried about Stitnz. Her chances of winning are about as low as Ford's. If she doesn't win the race I feel that she'll hurt Chow more than she hurts Ford because of those 30% of people who will vote for Ford regardless of what happens. I hope she'll have the sense to drop out the race if it becomes clear that she won't win.

 

[Silence&Motion]

The last thing is that Chow seems to have a huge amount of support among people who didn't vote in the last election. This could mean one of two things:

1. 2010 had poor voter turnout numbers. All the trouble that has come out of City Hall for the past four years has made Torontonians more eager to take political action. This will greatly benefit Chow since she'll be getting the largest chunk of new voters.

2. These potential Chow supporters didn't care enough to vote back in 2010 and they won't care in 2014 either. This will definitely hurt Chow.

Add one other possibility:

3. NDP and other progressive voters weren't in love with Joe Pantelone, had no one else to vote for, were cynical about a possible Ford victory and even more cynical about George Smitherman being the only thing between him and the mayoralty. So they just didn't bother showing up. I think we can all agree that Chow will excite progressives a lot more than Pantelone, so expect some of those people to come out this time.

I see good news and bad news for Chow supporters in the poll. The good news is that Chow's support seems to be relatively stable against every combination of opponents. It's really the Right that seems to be splitting the vote (e.g. compare Tory vs. Chow to Tory vs. Chow vs. Stintz. Stintz takes 8 points away from Tory, but only 4 points away from Chow).

The bad news is that Chow's stable support stands well below 50%. If the right unites behind a single candidate, she'll be in trouble (as we see in the Tory vs. Chow poll). Or, if centrist voters go with Tory or Stintz, it could come down to a horse race between Chow's 35-40% vs. Ford's 35-40% - that is, assuming Ford is able to hang onto that many supporters.

 

[MetroMan]

I've become very cynical about our electorate and Ford really opened up the pandora's box to American style politics. What gives me some comfort is that this is probably the last election before electoral reform. Ranked ballots means that somebody as polarizing as Ford will never become Mayor again. It's hard to believe that 51% of Toronto would ever support such an incompetent and negative candidate like him. The current first past the post system however rewards vote splitters.

If Stintz or Chow evict Rob Ford next year, he's out for good; he'll never be Mayor again. However, I admit that we still might see him run for Council and likely get his old seat back (if he's not banned from running due to a criminal record).

 

[GenerationW]

I thought 2010 had the highest voter turnout since the Mega City was formed.

It did, surpassing even the first amalgamated election. Turns out the years that most clearly made Torontonians more eager to take political action were 2007-10.

1997: 45.7%
2000: 36.1%
2003: 38.3%
2006: 39.3%
2010: 50.6%

Voter turnout in 2010 was higher than average in central Etobicoke, Rosedale, North Toronto, Riverdale, and East York; and lower turnout in the outer suburbs and the northwest corridor.

I think these recent polls are pretty much useless other than maybe for measuring name recognition. Call me in June, when we'll know who is actually running and who has gained some traction. And even saying that, most people don't really start paying attention until after Labour Day.

 

[MetroMan]

John Tory is almost certainly in. He'll declare around February or March. The Conservatives appear to be dropping Ford as their man.

 

[JasonParis]

Barbara Hall back in 1994 won with like 43%

It should also be mentioned here that she only won the "old city" as Toronto wasn't ammalgamated yet.

 

[nfitz]

The money from senior levels of government spending comes from the same taxpayers as the municipal money. You cannot simply state that the money from upper levels is irrelevant.

Your missing the point. If Government of Ontario has uploaded some services, the money is still being spent, but not showing up in city budget. One example is Region of York has stopped paying TTC to provide some it's services, and is providing it directly ... again it reduces the amount of Toronto total budget, without having anything to do with Ford.

That the total budget is frozen is very interesting. If taxes have continued to rise, and total spend is the same, this means that money from other governments has dropped significantly! Does this mean that some of it is Ford has failed to find funding from other governments that Miller could find?

 

[syn]

The point is that some think the governments spend too much money already. A flat budget should be the goal while the city get and province get their spending under control. More from the province is more from the people. There is no more coming around without affecting the household budgets of families and individuals. The Liberal provincial government has flushed billions of dollars down the drain in recent years and people on this thread are still complaining about what Harris did more than 12 years ago. How about what the Liberals wasted yesterday. There is your "Relief Line", it is in Ornge ($1 Billion) E-health ($1 Billion) Gas Plants ($1.1 Billion). Add to that millions in single source contracts to Bombardier and Samsung and total failure on improving our energy supply and people here have to point back to what happened last century to blame Harris?

The city of Toronto has over 33,000 employees. Some people believe that governments have to do with less. There is no more going to the trough and if Ford did one thing, and I do not know how to state this more clearly, he stemmed the tide of huge annual budget increases and many see that as a positive.

"Some people think"

"Some people believe"

Why?

How much is too much?

Why is 33,000 employees too much?

Whenever I've heard one of these arguments made, no one can ever provide any sort of rational explanation as to why all of these things are true.

As pointed out by W.K. Lis, between 1996 and 2011 Toronto added over 229,000 people. That's basically the population of Saskatoon added in a relatively short timeframe. Why would there not be a greater need for workers to service a rapidly growing city? Facts and common sense should trump ideology. Ford's own investigation into city spending revealed there was really no waste to be found.

Ornge, E-Health, Gas Plants...yes, all a terrible waste. The same goes for the Scarborough Subway Extension. For some reason you don't have a problem with Ford not wanting to 'do with less'.

The burden on property tax payers in the city has been increasing at almost the same rate as it has under Miller. Despite all his claims Ford hasn't really done much to save the city money at all in the grand scheme of things, certainly not more than the previous administration. It's all talk.

I'll ask again - why is 33,000 city employees too much? Where exactly does the city spend too much money?

 

[js97]

I'm really worried about Stitnz. Her chances of winning are about as low as Ford's. If she doesn't win the race I feel that she'll hurt Chow more than she hurts Ford because of those 30% of people who will vote for Ford regardless of what happens. I hope she'll have the sense to drop out the race if it becomes clear that she won't win.

I think if anything, Stintz would split the center, even left center vote.

I'd happily vote for Stintz, Tory, Matlow, Bob Rae, but will hold my nose and take Ford over Chow.

I don't even know why she has any interest in becoming mayor (except her ego and the union institution that is pushing her)

The best thing is clearly to have Ford withdrawal from the next mayoral race.

I worry about the Stintz's 'ground' game compared to Chows. Tory would really be the best for this city.

 

[js97]

I'll ask again - why is 33,000 city employees too much? Where exactly does the city spend too much money?

Well, that's approximately 1 employee to every 78 2.5m/33k

is that too many or not enough for a city of comparable size?

 

[syn]

Well, that's approximately 1 employee to every 78 2.5m/33k

is that too many or not enough for a city of comparable size?

Difficult to say as there really aren't any cities in Canada of a comparable size.

Saskatoon has about 1 employee to every 76 citizens.

Vancouver has about 1 to every 60.

Calgary has 1 to every 66.

There really doesn't seem to be anything that odd about the number of employees Toronto has.