GraphicMatt
Looking forward to a FRESH START for Toronto
The Globe poll has a sample of about 1,000 with a 3% MOE.
But I kind of hated Stats class so maybe I'm just not good at understanding this kind of stuff.
|
|
|
Next Mayor of Toronto?
- Thread starter taal
- Start date
The Globe poll has a sample of about 1,000 with a 3% MOE.
But I kind of hated Stats class so maybe I'm just not good at understanding this kind of stuff.
Or they're people like me ... I know I won't vote for Ford, but I'm undecided as to who I will vote for.
archanfel
Active Member
I guess the question is whether Rossi and Thomson's supporters will go to Mr. Ford or Mr. Pantalone. Not to mention those who support Mr. Smitherman today.
drone
Active Member
translation..ford is in the lead
nfitz
Superstar
Ah yes ... I wonder if both are really 95% (19 times out of 20). Perhaps there is a typo somewhere ... the Star article seems to ignore Thomson's support - which is about 10% of decided if you back-calculate it.
The polling dates are quite different; this one the Star reported is from Sept 8 to 12, and the Globe poll is from Sept 14 to Sept 16. Is Pantalone really gaining so much in a week, or is it just margin of error ...
archanfel
Active Member
Translation, people are angry. Let's be honest, Ford is not all that likable. He even boasted that even the right wing dislikes him. I think his number says a lot more about the current administration and the other candidates than about himself.
MetroMan
Senior Member
There's no good way to spin this. Pack your bags.
Ford's support isn't going anywhere, despite all the trash that's been thrown at him. All the other candidates have no reason to drop out of the race. Each of them will selfishly believe that somehow they'll get luck and surge in the polls and that's unlikely. The remaining 4 will split the vote and Rob Ford will be Mayor.
I don't see a scenario where Smitherman or Joe will drop out. Rossi and Thomson may just give in to reality at some point but the other 2 won't stop. Pants isn't going to give up his 30 year political career without a fight. Smitherman is still in second place and as the official challenger, he'll take it to the end. With both of them in the race, neither of them will have the support to beat out Rob Ford.
The only way out is if the other candidates supporters abandon them. If John Tory's kids get scared enough, they might just put an end to Thomson's campaign and throw their support behind Smitherman or Joe. John Tory himself could change the race by picking one of them.
Anyway you think about it, things are looking bleak for Toronto.
archanfel
Active Member
John Tory is our only hope now? Do people regret supporting Miller back then now? Oh how you reap what you sow.
hbl33
Active Member
John Tory is our only hope now? Do people regret supporting Miller back then now? Oh how you reap what you sow.
Hmm... Is RF leading in the polls just a media scare?
drone
Active Member
I agree, I admit, I'm playing the other side. I really think he represents toronto being fed up with the current office.
SimonP
Active Member
Joe Pantalione had his official office opening today, and I attended. Most of the VIPs were people you'd expect, the Layton family, a number of progressive city councillors, and NDP MPPs. The one notable surprise was that Art Eggleton attended.
Ontariolandlord
New Member
Why?
Cutting fees and waste will re-vitalize Toronto.
(By the way, I'm a big John Tory fan...but Ford is not the boogie man the media want you to think).
GraphicMatt
Looking forward to a FRESH START for Toronto
Eggleton's attendance is interesting, particularly considering I'd have thought him to be backing Smitherman (or even Rossi), but the big endorsements still out there would be Tory and David Crombie. I'm not so much interested in who Tory chooses to support as much as I am in him coming out publicly and saying that would-be John Tory supporters should not vote for Rob Ford. I need him to say, as I know he believes, that Mayor Rob Ford would be bad for Toronto.
Sadly Tory's great failing is that he often doesn't stand up and fight for his true beliefs, so who knows if he'll actually do that.
Sadly Tory's great failing is that he often doesn't stand up and fight for his true beliefs, so who knows if he'll actually do that.
Irishmonk
Senior Member
Anyway you spin it, this really sucks for city-lovers. I guess a lot of people in outer 416 think of the city as a place to drive through to get to work. They must envy the suburbanites around Detroit who have nice empty freeways beckoning them to work every morning.
The megacity is what did us in. David Miller might prove to be an aberration in post megacity mayoral contests. If Ford wins it will be two suburban regressives and just one urban progressive since the merger.
The megacity is what did us in. David Miller might prove to be an aberration in post megacity mayoral contests. If Ford wins it will be two suburban regressives and just one urban progressive since the merger.
MetroMan
Senior Member
^ Well said. People do put a lot of cachet into what Tory says about this race. He needs to explicitly say that Rob Ford would ruin this city, if not by his actions, by his inaction on urgent matters that he has no solution for.
My math sucks, can somebody translate the Nanos poll to the total number of Torontonians since the numbers as they are indicate decided voters, and not the percentage of Toronto? It would be interesting to see how much support Ford has. I find it hard to believe that nearly half of Toronto sides with Ford.
My math sucks, can somebody translate the Nanos poll to the total number of Torontonians since the numbers as they are indicate decided voters, and not the percentage of Toronto? It would be interesting to see how much support Ford has. I find it hard to believe that nearly half of Toronto sides with Ford.