Well, let's digest those numbers for a bit.
It's common for the electorate's focus to narrow to the top candidates in the last couple of months before an election. Considering Rossi is in last place, let's assume his support goes to other candidates. While he's running a right leaning campaign, he's definitely nowhere near as far right as Ford. I predict most of his support will go to Smitherman. That would still leave Ford in the lead. Let's take Thompson's numbers and I believe that very few -- if any -- of her supporters would go to Ford. They would go to Smitherman and/or Pantalone (i.e. I'm a Pantalone supporter who would vote for Sarah if she had the numbers to compete).
So in summary, if Pantalone and Smitherman fight it off to the end as the anti-Ford candidate, Rob Ford is Toronto's next Mayor. If either one of them convincingly consolidates those points, Ford will be way behind and we have Mayor Joe or George.