News   Jul 11, 2024
Urban Canyon
 132     0 
News   Jul 10, 2024
Industry Updates: Addressing Housing Affordability, Progress in the Port Lands, and Celebrating REX Award Winners
 523     0 
News   Jul 10, 2024
U of T's Rotman Commerce Design by Danish Architects 3XN Unveiled
 2.1K     1 

Next Mayor of Toronto?

nfitz said:
Well this exchange was 3-years ago, and the poster has been banned (though I'm sure he's still here under another user id). But I can't resist setting the story straight now that the facts have changed.

This gets back to the debate back then of how can Montreal's subway system carry more passengers a day than Toronto's, even though both systems are about the same size, but the Montreal trains are smaller and less frequent.

The answer appears to be that it doesn't. While a typical APTA repot from 2010 shows that Montreal ridership is a bit higher - http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/Ridership/2010_q1_ridership_APTA.pdf

A recent APTA report from 2012 shows Montreal ridership is about half what was previously reported. http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/Ridership/2012-q3-ridership-APTA.pdf

I guess the construction industry in Montreal wasn't the only one that was corrupt. This should teach people to not take "facts" blindly that don't make sense.
Click to expand...
You don't realise how special Toronto is. 5 min off peak is unique to this city.
 
Toronto Mayor 2014

I think it's safe to say Rob Ford, Olivia Chow, and Karen Stintz are most going to make a run.

Who else are likely or possible candidates?
 
I really don't know. I don't see anyone on the far left running, as Olivia Chow is the best bet. Same goes for anybody running on the far right, as Ford has a solid base of support. If somebody else does enter, its probably going to be a centrist.

No names come to mind. I don't see John Tory, Adam Giambrone, or George Smitherman ever running again. If Chow wasn't running, then I could see Adam Vaughn running.

Supposedly some guy that previously worked with Pride is considering a run, but he's a fringe candidate.
 
Ford will definitely play up the 'indecisive traitor' view of Stintz (and say "I told you so months ago"). She'll need to overcome this in order to win, regardless of her policies. She can also help her chances if she campaigns well, presents a comprehensive right-centrist slate of promises that helps save people money, and gets approval from the National Post and the Sun.

He'll let Conservative mainstream media take care of Chow. Chow's supporters will come from the left, her goal is to get the centrists and ethnic vote onto her side. As such, she'll need to present a leftist-centrist platform to get vote.

Still hoping that real progressive conservative like John Tory comes back; Ford really has no ammunition that I can think of against him.


This election is two-tiered in its purpose:

- Preventing the re-election of Ford, who I could see again as mayor in 2014 if the stars align (no other conservative candidate, return of Kouvalis, weak candidate campigns from Stintz and Chow)

- Preventing a new slate of Ford-aligned councillors from replacing centrist politicians. This goal is more important. If Ford's slate of councillors gets elected, he could more easily force through his policies. If council makeup remains the same, he'll be totally powerless (which I don't see as a bad thing, it'll just be 2012-2013 again). Council has been running the city fairly well so far, so I don't necessarily see a problem in this.
 
Last edited:
John Tory running for mayor would only be a good thing. It certainly would change the dynamics of the campaign.

Further, if Tory focuses his message wisely, he will win.
 
My vote is going to Karen, Mistress of the Dark.

1297332647469_ORIGINAL.jpg
 

Attachments

  • 1297332647469_ORIGINAL.jpg
    1297332647469_ORIGINAL.jpg
    32.4 KB · Views: 306
For the first time ever, I'm feeling pretty good about the slate of candidates that could beat Ford.

We have a left wing populist. That will eat up the diametrically-opposed-to-Ford vote (25%) as well as some of the people who are swayed by populism, regardless of whether it's far left or far right (go figure) (15%). So a total of 40% of votes.

We have a right-of-centre, female midtown pragmatist with a handle on transit. Should get the vote for relatively-informed voters for whom Chow is just too left wing (25%)

We have an old-establishment, right-of-centre male pragmatist that could soak up the old money conservative vote. (15%)

That leaves Ford with the 20% fanatic, cult of personality vote.
 
I don't think Tory will run. I don't think he will run unless it is almost certain he will win and it doesn't break kindly for him in my opinion in a multi-candidate scenerio. He looks good head-to-head in a race with Ford but that will never happen because the left candidate won't bow out in his favour. In a Tory, Ford plus left candidate scenerio I think that Tory would be in danger of coming in third even though he would easily beat Ford one-on-one.
 
Hipster Duck said:
For the first time ever, I'm feeling pretty good about the slate of candidates that could beat Ford.

We have a left wing populist. That will eat up the diametrically-opposed-to-Ford vote (25%) as well as some of the people who are swayed by populism, regardless of whether it's far left or far right (go figure) (15%). So a total of 40% of votes.

We have a right-of-centre, female midtown pragmatist with a handle on transit. Should get the vote for relatively-informed voters for whom Chow is just too left wing (25%)

We have an old-establishment, right-of-centre male pragmatist that could soak up the old money conservative vote. (15%)

That leaves Ford with the 20% fanatic, cult of personality vote.
Click to expand...

That "criminal" (by some) Karen Stintz has been ticketed for a highway traffic infraction, allegedly. See the article "Karen Stintz ticketed for allegedly running stop sign on bike" from The Star, at this link.

Karen got the ticket for, allegedly, doing a rolling stop at Duplex Ave. and Berwick Ave. on Thursday. The ticket has a fine of $110. No videos.
 
TrickyRicky said:
I don't think Tory will run. I don't think he will run unless it is almost certain he will win and it doesn't break kindly for him in my opinion in a multi-candidate scenerio. He looks good head-to-head in a race with Ford but that will never happen because the left candidate won't bow out in his favour. In a Tory, Ford plus left candidate scenerio I think that Tory would be in danger of coming in third even though he would easily beat Ford one-on-one.
Click to expand...

That certainly sounds plausible.

I hate to say it, but in a city like Toronto it may be necessary to run another male, straight candidate. That's because Toronto is populated by a lot of new immigrants, which means either a low voter turnout or a more socially conservative turnout, and a turnout that's biased toward an aging, white, suburban electorate*.

In a bizarre twist, a city like Houston, Texas was able to elect an openly gay mayor. This is due to similar circumstances: a majority Hispanic and black working class/underclass electorate that didn't turn out (or was discouraged from voting) meant that the remaining urban whites - who are generally quite educated and progressive, even in Texas - tipped the ballot.

*About this electorate. I don't think they're necessarily Ford fanatics, but the kinds of issues that big city mayors are pushing these days like urban visions, livability and tax-supported public initiatives do not resonate with them. When you live in a suburban municipality you don't use public services like parks or recreation facilities or treat the city like an extension of your living room. Your backyard is your public space; your living room is your living room. You basically just view the city as this entity that keeps your cul de sac plowed in the winter and picks up your garbage every week. If they do those two things properly, you may not even care that much about your tax bill.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to post here.

Back
Top