Next Mayor of Toronto?

[MetroMan]

But -- we are reminded (by Crombie) that a system exists to keep shitty mayors in check.

You mean Crombie mentioned it, not that he was an example of a shitty mayor being kept in check right? I thought Crombie was a great mayor.

I expect Adam Vaughan to win his seat; it will be Adam Vaughan, a capable guy, who will lead the anti-Ford charge in council (that is, if Ford is elected), and Vaughan will organize very well.

I believe this too. When Ford challenged Adam Vaughan to run, I knew that Adam was secretly having a laugh inside. He knows that he'll become the defacto Mayor, without having to run for the job. In fact, Ford is running for him. If Ford does all the work and becomes Mayor, he will have been campaigning for Vaughan to become the leader in council.

Despite the apparent lean right, I don't expect a lot of incumbents to lose their seats so Vaughan will have a lot of left and centre support.

Well, Rossi's second major transport announcement is out. Something about replacing road bridges faster. The location of the announcement, along the rail corridor/Gardiner in Parkdale, got my hopes up that maybe he might finally propose something positive for people whose preferred mode of interaction with the city isn't through a windshield. Silly me, I guess. Why Rossi seems so determined to not only write off but actively antagonise most folks south of St. Clair is a real mystery, coming from a guy trying to present himself as a 'consensus' candidate. Oh, and he wants a bridge to the Island airport, too.

Well, it's official, Rossi's new push is 100% appealing to Ford's base but he has the ability to present himself as less prone to scandal, less likely to embarrass the city, more statesmanlike. I think it can work for him. The good news is that certain people will never leave Ford as they've made up their minds and are staying put. This is very good news as Rossi will probably be able to take 10-15% away from Ford which will leave each of them in the 20% range. Smitherman and Pantalone will probably battle it out for the remaining 60% that lies in the gradients between Left to Centre.

 

[Glen]

You've done some pretty deep thinking on these issues. Does Rob Ford strike you as someone capable of that? Does someone who think that replacing 200 streetcars with 800 buses to save money strike you as someone who is going to be good at this stuff?

To be honest I am not enamoured with any of the candidates. I agree that there there has been little in the way of forward thinking, on all fronts. So what does that leave us with? So I cannot say where any of the candidates want us to go. The only thing I can see is where the candidates are coming from. On that front, Rob Ford holds the most appeal. I am of the opinion that the current Mayor and council is to guided by ideology and image. When we get projects like the new and expensive multi level ice rinks, Transit city (you can read why I oppose it here), etc. while the city continues to bleed jobs, and is facing financial difficulties, the only platform I can support is the one that is best able to address that.

Pantalone is part of the problem.
Rossi looks to be an opportunist.
Smitherman looks like a typical Liberal, where he will say yes to everybody.
Thompson, is an unknown, but her remarks regarding businesses leaving Toronto because of red tape, without the mention of taxes, does not make me hold here in any esteem.
Rob Ford, I disagree with his plans to eliminate the LTT and VRT, But I do agree with the his strong convictions that the city does not spend wisely.

No matter whom I choose to vote for I will have to hold my nose. As of now Rob Ford looks like Guliani, not my choice for the long term but necessary for the short term. After one term we can look for our Bloomberg. Smitherman would be my second choice, only because I think he would have the balls to shed the massaged messages once (if) elected.

 

[PinkLucy]

Although Ford may have strong convictions that the city does not spend wisely, has he presented any reasonable alternatives? Anyone can say things aren't being done properly, but if they want to run a city, they should have some workable solutions.

 

[Glen]

Although Ford may have strong convictions that the city does not spend wisely, has he presented any reasonable alternatives? Anyone can say things aren't being done properly, but if they want to run a city, they should have some workable solutions.

In some cases yes, by voting no . Again, we have very little to go by on any of the candidates, so question is applicable to all candidates. And the answers have been equally vague.

 

[PinkLucy]

I agree, but I just can't agree that Ford is the best of a bad bunch!

 

[Glen]

As far as Rob Ford being hindered by Adam Vaughan. I think Adam will have his hands full if Doug Ford gets elected.

 

[TonyV]

You mean Crombie mentioned it, not that he was an example of a shitty mayor being kept in check right? I thought Crombie was a great mayor.

Yes, that is what I meant, Crombie mentioned it. Crombie was great, and still is a great person with focus.

 

[TonyV]

As far as Rob Ford being hindered by Adam Vaughan. I think Adam will have his hands full if Doug Ford gets elected.

Adam is up to the task, and is far more clever than Rob. Adam knows how to build alliances. Rob simply torches the stage for the sole purpose of alienating people.

 

[MetroMan]

Poll Predictions

This is completely speculative based on trends that I've been noticing in the media according to positive/negative articles and reader feedback:

1 - Ford
2 - Rossi
3 - Pantalone
4 - Smitherman
5 - Thomson


Rossi will be the big winner in this poll as he's managed to keep himself in the news nearly every day. He's appealing to the kind of issues that Ford is tapping in to, but coming across as a potential Mayor who can get things done, work with council and other levels of government and not be a ticking time bomb waiting to embarrass himself and the city.

So, I predict that Ford will be losing a lot of his support to Rossi who will move in to second. Smitherman hasn't been able to make anything stick lately and is starting to appear irrelevant in this election. I think his poll numbers will reflect that. Pants will continue solidifying the left/centre vote, taking from the previously undecideds.

Finally, I'm noticing a trend of increasing support for Thomson. I put her in last place in the poll, only because I don't think Smitherman will lose all his support at once. I think Thomson is a rising star in this election and will steadily gain as Smiterhman's campaign begins to fizzle.

Toronto poll numbers have been known to turn on their head in elections without incumbents so I don't think my predictions are difficult to imagine happening.

 

[Glen]

Adam is up to the task, and is far more clever than Rob. Adam knows how to build alliances. Rob simply torches the stage for the sole purpose of alienating people.

What I was referring to was that Rob's brother Doug will be able to handle Adam.

 

[nfitz]

I keep wondering what bonehead move Rossi would pull next, after ripping up the bike lanes, and building the Spadina Expressway.

We didn't have to wait long:

A bridge to the Island Airport - http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tor...le/861557--rossi-supports-island-airport-link

I actually agree with him. But I'm not voting for someone who wants to build the Spadina Expressway or rip up bike lanes.

He seems to be trying to dredge up every old idea that pissed people off, and put them all out there. Surely this will only get him into last place, as people are more likely to vote against someone who has pissed them off, than for someone.

We should have a pool on what he proposes next. Gardiner Expressway from DVP to Kingston Road? Replace the Eglinton RT with an expressway? Pave the Georgetown GO line with an expressway? Replace the ferries to the Island with road bridge from Cherry Street and a big parking lot? Join St. Clair East to St. Clair West? Connect Leslie from Eglinton to Leslieville? Build collector/express lanes down the DVP? Reduce parking rates? Build free parking lots at all TTC stations? Increase TTC fares to fund road construction? Remove streetcars? Restore the angled parking to Spadina? Increase speed limits? Remove road humps? Build a drive-through window at City Hall? Remove pedestrian cross-walks? Build an incinerator in Toronto?

Obviously trying to win the election isn't his strategy. So what is it?

 

[GraphicMatt]

It's a Hail Mary play - a continuous stream of media announcements designed to keep people talking about him. It's a move that's worked in past campaigns - Harper did a 'announcement every day' thing in, I think, 2006 to win his first minority - but, with six weeks until the election, I don't think he can sustain this pace. Either he's going to run out of things to announce or the media is just going to tire of him.

I'm still convinced it's a bad strategy if he's shooting for the mayor position. It's kind of a brilliant strategy if he's ultimately looking for a role as a GTA MP, though.

 

[Glen]

Restore the angled parking to Spadina?

Nothing wrong with that. Have you ever watched people try to parallel park on Spadina?

 

[MetroMan]

I keep wondering what bonehead move Rossi would pull next, after ripping up the bike lanes, and building the Spadina Expressway.

We didn't have to wait long:

A bridge to the Island Airport - http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tor...le/861557--rossi-supports-island-airport-link

I actually agree with him. But I'm not voting for someone who wants to build the Spadina Expressway or rip up bike lanes.

He seems to be trying to dredge up every old idea that pissed people off, and put them all out there. Surely this will only get him into last place, as people are more likely to vote against someone who has pissed them off, than for someone.

We should have a pool on what he proposes next. Gardiner Expressway from DVP to Kingston Road? Replace the Eglinton RT with an expressway? Pave the Georgetown GO line with an expressway? Replace the ferries to the Island with road bridge from Cherry Street and a big parking lot? Join St. Clair East to St. Clair West? Connect Leslie from Eglinton to Leslieville? Build collector/express lanes down the DVP? Reduce parking rates? Build free parking lots at all TTC stations? Increase TTC fares to fund road construction? Remove streetcars? Restore the angled parking to Spadina? Increase speed limits? Remove road humps? Build a drive-through window at City Hall? Remove pedestrian cross-walks? Build an incinerator in Toronto?

Obviously trying to win the election isn't his strategy. So what is it?

Rossi's new campaign team are geniuses. That's what they are.

Rob Ford's message is very obviously working by appealing to the electorate of this election, of Toronto Municipal Election 2010. Why not go with a winning formula?

The problem with Ford is that he can only go so far because a large portion of voters thinks he's simply too loudmouthed, inarticulate, uneducated, prone to scandal and unstatesmanlike to be Mayor of the largest city in Canada.

Rossi is selling the same message to Rob Ford's voters but is actually articulate, very well educated, will fit in with Mayors, Prime Ministers and Presidents. He will suit the job. That should allow him to gain support to virtually the line that bounds the political left from the centre. If he can be viewed as a not-scary alternative to Rob Ford, he can go beyond 40% I think.

Rossi's next campaign slogan:

Rocco Rossi. Less Scary.

 

[nfitz]

Rossi is selling the same message to Rob Ford's voters but is actually articulate, very well educated, will fit in with Mayors, Prime Ministers and Presidents. He will suit the job. That should allow him to gain support to virtually the line that bounds the political left from the centre. If he can be viewed as a not-scary alternative to Rob Ford, he can go beyond 40% I think.

Given that opposing the Spadina Expressway and the Airport Bridge have won elections before, I'd think putting that card on the table would be just asking someone to come out and start running an anti-airport bridge and anti-Spadina expressway tunnel.

If Ford has any sense he'd attack the Airport Bridge - I don't think he really cares about the issue one way or the other - he lives closer to Pearson. And perhaps the Spadina Expressway too (proposing perhaps to study alternatives that don't go through residential neighbouhoods).