Also Bloor and Burnhamthorpe raise questions. Drum mentioned those were around 10k. What gives?
I believe Drum did state he had not actually done any of his counts for at least 10 years and was probably trying to be helpful giving a rough estimate. As for your question regarding Bloor and Burnhamthorpe the general answer is the transitway has definitely resulted in ridership patterns changing. More specifically the faster, more frequent service on the 109 has taken away ridership from both the 3 and 26; both routes used to be the most frequent East-West routes connecting Islington and Square One/City Centre. The financial crisis of 2008 also caused ridership losses on many routes that took years to recover from. I'm going to include the 20 here since it is a route in close proximity.
Route 3 weekday ridership
2003 - 5,900 (projected)
2008 - 8,146
2011 - 7,275
2015 - 7,781
2019 - 7,187
Route 20 weekday ridership
2003 - 2,889 (projected)
2008 - 3,583
2011 - 2,965
2015 - 3,731
2016 - 3,899
2019 - 3,794
Burnhamthorpe weekday ridership (26 + 86 for 2003, 26 + 76 all other years)
2003 - 10,823 + 2,926 = 13,479 (projected)
2008 - 10,161 + 2,246 = 12,407
2011 - 9, 188*
2015 - 8,636 + 1,689 = 10,325
2019 - 5,623 + 2,695 = 8,318
*Route 26 only, no route 76 ridership data was available in the 2011 count.
Some thoughts:
- Route 3's weekday ridership has never been in the 10,000 range, at least not in the last 20-25 years. The highest I can find for it was 8,146 in 2008 and it has since settled into the 7000-8000 range. I suspect it has seen some ridership migration to the transitway as evidenced by the 2015-2019 ridership numbers but not as drastic as the Burnhamthorpe routes. The density of apartment buildings on Bloor east of Dixie as well as the route serving Mississauga Valley provide it with a good base of stable ridership.
- The strange part about the 3's ridership was it seemed to also have a similar spike 20 years ago. In 1999, weekday ridership was 6,560 boardings, in 2001 it had grown to 7,586. However in 2002 it had already started to decline again with 7,041 weekday boardings and seemed to bottom out in 2003, before picking up again until 2008. I can't really think of anything to explain that variance.
- Route 20's ridership has remained stable in the 3700-3900 range in 2015-2019. It wasn't as impacted by the transitway despite being in close proximity. It was always the least frequent of the 3/20/26 so it probably didn't suffer as much or at all from riders between Islington-City Centre shifting to the transitway. The route's extension west to Erindale GO in 2013 probably helps explain some of the ridership increase from 2011-2015, as well as recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. Also like the 3, there is a fair bit of density with apartment buildings and townhouse complexes on certain points of the route. Also, from my observations riding the route ridership seems to be more younger people, families and the eldery making more 'local' trips, such as to the mall, grocery store etc. which could explain the more stable ridership.
- The Burnhamthorpe corridor has seen the biggest impact to ridership. While the 2003 and 2008 weekday ridership was well over 12,000 combined and 10,000 for the 26; you can see by 2011 it had started to decline. The transitway played a huge part in ridership along Burnhamthorpe declining, as it was once the most frequent east-west route between Islington and City Centre/Square One. In addition the 110 University Express providing much faster service between City Centre/Square One and South Common also took away a lot of the 26's ridership on the west end of the route. I suspect going forward that the Burnhamthorpe corridor will settle with stable weekday ridership in the 8000 range.