Metrolinx: Five-in-Ten Plan

[Rainforest]

The one big thing the above numbers don't take into account are employment figures. I only have those numbers by ward, but here are some rough figures:

Bloor corridor (~Dupont to Lakeshore)
*Jobs: 608,000
*Area: 150 km2
*Job density: 4052 j/km
*Wards : 5, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 35, 36 (14 total)

Eglinton (~Dupont to 401)
*Jobs: 258,000
*Area: 186 km2
*Job density: 1386 j/km
*Wards: 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 21, 22, 25, 26, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38 (16 total)

North (Above the 401)
*Jobs: 255,000
*Area: 148 km
*Job density: 1723 j/km
*Wards 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 23, 24, 39, 40, 41, 42 (12 total)

That the Bloor corridor has more than twice as many workers and about thrice the density of workers as Eglinton may be the biggest factor in why the ridership projections are so different.

However, does the Bloor corridor's job count include the downtown jobs? If so, then (a) it is the main cause of the much larger count, and (b) similar numbers of riders can use Eglinton line and Bloor line to access the downtown jobs (via YUS).

 

[Rainforest]

Here is my impression of this thread in the 1950s:

This Yonge subway from Union to Eglinton they're thinking of building is totally going to reach capacity within the next 50 years so we should definitely scrap this plan and design a quad-track system.

Actually, it would be good to consider such option, and estimate the additional cost.

Then, choose whether to proceed with it dependent on the magnitude of that additional cost. If the markup is 15% or 20% for 100% more capacity, that sounds like a good deal. If the markup is 40% or 50%, then maybe not, given that the need of more capacity in future is not guaranteed.

It seems that the situation with Eglinton is similar to the former case (15% or 20% markup for 100% more capacity).

 

[Rainforest]

The fact that you state that it doesn't account for “BD interceptor” effect demonstrates that you don't understand what you are talking about. An examination of the equations behind a transport demand model indicate that this is accounted for.

Do you have access to the details of their modeling? If so, then what volume of transfers from N-S routes did they assume / calculate for Eglinton, and for Bloor?

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Wards 6 and 33 don't seem to be included in those zone counts...and they both have about 23,000 jobs.

The SRT did herald transit planning woes. STC is massive, a textbook definition of a perfect transit hub, and only about 5km from where the subway currently ends. I don't think there's another city in the entire world that wouldn't plan for a short subway extension like one to STC. Slowing transit expansion may set us back, but making a mistake like building the SRT or the Sheppard LRT actually moves us backwards.

 

[Rainforest]

^ Sheppard LRT looks like a done deal.

Kennedy - STC corridor still has options, since the start of construction is deferred till 2015. If the subway gets extended to STC, I'd consider taking it one stop further to Sheppard / McCowan. The direct connection to subway could make SELRT more useful.

The distance between Kennedy Stn and Sheppard / McCowan is about 7 km. The length of subway extension could be about 8 km since it would not follow a straight line. Given that the latest Metrolinx projection for SLRT is more than 2.4 billion, that could cover all or almost all of that subway cost (2.4 billion / 8 km = 300 million/km).

 

[SimonP]

For the long run I think the best plan is to get the Eglinton LRT built in the next few years. If we get the Eglinton line built by 2016, it along with the SELRT, Finch West, and the Yonge Extension will make the DRL an utter necessity. We will finally have a political environment that will make it impossible for such a project not to go ahead. Once there are new stations at Flemingdon Park and later Keele and Eglinton there would no longer be any worries about the Eglinton LRT going over capacity.

 

[SimonP]

Wards 6 and 33 don't seem to be included in those zone counts...and they both have about 23,000 jobs.

Ward 33 was an error. It should be part of the northern section. The new north stats are:

Jobs: 278,000
Area: 159
Density: 1745 j/km

I left out Ward 6 deliberately as I'm not sure how much traffic from those areas would make it to the Bloor subway. I'd imagine most there would rely on either the Gardiner or the Queen Streetcar to get them places.

 

[Rainforest]

For the long run I think the best plan is to get the Eglinton LRT built in the next few years. If we get the Eglinton line built by 2016, it along with the SELRT, Finch West, and the Yonge Extension will make the DRL an utter necessity. We will finally have a political environment that will make it impossible for such a project not to go ahead. Once there are new stations at Flemingdon Park and later Keele and Eglinton there would no longer be any worries about the Eglinton LRT going over capacity.

If you bank on both DRL East and DRL West reaching Eglinton, then yes.

However, I think that DRL West is iffy, and its extension from Bloor to Eglinton is many years away, if it ever happens. DRL East alone will relieve the most important choking points on Yonge line, and even Spadina south of Bloor will see some relief (currently, some riders from Danforth go past Yonge and transfer at St George).

Then, coming up with the massive investment of DRL West, mostly to relieve Eglinton West LRT, will be very hard. And in any case it would cost much more than the cost difference between Eglinton subway and Eglinton LRT.

 

[kettal]

There already is a drl west, it's a subway which meets Eglinton at Allen road, and with the new trains and ATC, will have even more excess capacity in the near future.

Add in the new GO station planned for Eglinton at Weston, I seriously doubt any new drl west will be necessary!

 

[kettal]

To add some numbers to the argument:

Bloor corridor (St Clair South to Lakeshore)
*Population: 780,000
*Density: 5800 ppkm
*Car commute: 43%
*Transit: 39%
*Walk/bike: 17%

Eglinton corridor (St Clair to Lawrence)
*Population: 596,000
*Density: 4100 ppkm
*Car commute: 58%
*Transit: 36%
*Walk/bike: 5%

North (Lawrence to Steeles)
*Population: 1,087,000
*Density: 3259 ppkm
*Car commute: 65%
*Transit: 30%
*Walk/bike: 4%

The Eglinton corridor has fewer people and is less dense than the Bloor one, but neither figure is dramatically lower. I'm not sure what multipliers transit planners use to get ridership projections, but the Eglinton estimates do seem a bit low.

Thanks for the numbers. If I lived anywhere near St Clair, I could never imagine trekking up to Eglinton for my downtown trip. That would be very stupid, especially in the West where the streetcar would be faster than backtracking; and in the east, a bus to Danforth subway makes way more sense than backtracking to Eglinton, no matter how fast the hypothetical Eglinton subway is.

 

[Rainforest]

There already is a drl west, it's a subway which meets Eglinton at Allen road, and with the new trains and ATC, will have even more excess capacity in the near future.

Spadina subway will have enough capacity at Eglinton West; the concern is Eglinton LRT coping with bus riders using it to get to Eglinton West.

Add in the new GO station planned for Eglinton at Weston, I seriously doubt any new drl west will be necessary!

That GO station might help indeed, provided that they actually build it, and integrate with TTC properly (fare structure, walking distance between TTC and GO).

Still, somehow it does not feel right to build Eglinton LRT with 40-50% of subway capacity, but for 80-85% of subway cost ...

 

[Dan416]

Eglinton is being built with the possibility of being converted to subway in the future. But if we're paying 80-90% of the cost of a subway, it seems logical to me that a subway is the right option when A) it'll draw more riders and B) increase land values and therefore C) increase development more (as per Metrolinx BCA on Sheppard West).

As for Sheppard East and the SRT, those are unmitigated disasters on both fronts.

 

[GTS]

It is a toss up I think for Eglinton, if it were built as a full fledged subway it doesn't necessarily mean that it would be better for the corridor. The reason that I say this is because the eastern portion of the Danforth has taken a turn for the worse since the streetcar was removed and the subway installed, sure it is a faster commute to downtown, but the business community has really taken a hit on that part of the Danforth. I am told that before my time, sure it took longer to get downtown, but, their were a lot more high end business' on the eastern end of the Danforth where the streetcar used to travel. Take a ride on the 501 Queen car, which operates in mixed traffic, and you might see that it isn't perfect but it a lot more vibrant corridor for business then the Danforth and this is in part because of the streetcar servicing this corridor rather then just feeding the downtown area.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

Thanks for the numbers. If I lived anywhere near St Clair, I could never imagine trekking up to Eglinton for my downtown trip. That would be very stupid, especially in the West where the streetcar would be faster than backtracking; and in the east, a bus to Danforth subway makes way more sense than backtracking to Eglinton, no matter how fast the hypothetical Eglinton subway is.

St. Clair is a special case given the streetcar there. Given an ECLRT and the St. Clair LRT the dividing line between choosing one over the other would be roughly in the middle of the two roads I imagine. However if the Eglinton route were a subway I think that would push the attraction of Eglinton a bit further to the south.

You don't see many people travelling up from Lakeshore to Bloor to travel downtown either right? Yet those residents have been included in Bloors catchement area.

 

[kettal]

St. Clair is a special case given the streetcar there. Given an ECLRT and the St. Clair LRT the dividing line between choosing one over the other would be roughly in the middle of the two roads I imagine. However if the Eglinton route were a subway I think that would push the attraction of Eglinton a bit further to the south.

If they are heading south, backtracking north will never be attractive. I say the dividing line is much closer to Eglinton than St Clair. Even if you ignore the St Clair streetcar, Bloor will have a bigger pull for southbound riders.

You don't see many people travelling up from Lakeshore to Bloor to travel downtown either right? Yet those residents have been included in Bloors catchement area.

You tell me, what is the more attractive alternative to Bloor for these lakeshore types? Mimico GO station?