Metrolinx: Five-in-Ten Plan

[Rainforest]

The Toronto Construction Inflation Index (for residential buiding) from 2005 to 2010 is 23.9% according to StatsCanada. Industrial and commerical prices increased faster. A main driving factor being raw material price escalations. We're getting better environmental regulations, but it means more costs.

The MTO Tender Price index increased 33.7% for the 4.5 years from 2004/2005 Q4 to 2009/2010 Q2. For the 4 full years from 2004/2005 to 2008/2009 it increased 41.6%. For the 10 full years from 1998/1999 to 2008/2009 it increased 82.6%.

320 million/km x 123.9% = 396 million/km

320 million/km x 133.7% = 428 million/km

320 million/km x 141.6% = 453 million/km

Only the latter number aligns with EnviroTo's suggestion; and even then, where are the savings from smaller finished stations etc?

By the way, do you expect the construction costs to keep indefinitely growing much faster than general inflation? If so, then the construction industry will eventually price itself out of business. Or, maybe this growth is partly to a one time effect of new regulations, introduced in the last decade or so?

 

[nfitz]

By the way, do you expect the construction costs to keep indefinitely growing much faster than general inflation? If so, then the construction industry will eventually price itself out of business. Or, maybe this growth is partly to a one time effect of new regulations, introduced in the last decade or so?

Good question. How much longer will commodity costs continue to spiral. How much more costs does everyone want to to assume to stay green. Steel, oil, and stone are the big drivers. The first two continue to rise. And the latter is very much driven by oil costs ... and the push from people to avoid putting quarries anywhere close to market.

 

[Fresh Start]

The public sector should never attempt to build anything ever because of the associated risks; no matter how imagined or exaggerated or easy to overcome those preceived risks might be.

 

[nfitz]

The public sector should never attempt to build anything ever because of the associated risks; no matter how imagined or exaggerated or easy to overcome those preceived risks might be.

What a bizarre suggestion. I'm not sure where you are coming from here. Would you prefer PPPs; or as a Conservative politician recently called it "looting".

 

[Justin10000]

There is far greater risks in involving the private sector in transit projects. I do think Fresh Start has heard about the London debacle.

 

[waterloowarrior]

There is far greater risks in involving the private sector in transit projects. I do think Fresh Start has heard about the London debacle.

As a general statement I don't think that's true... private companies operate, design, build, and often maintain transit projects and transit lines all over the world. The risks are more with financing and/or "owning"(long term lease) the infrastructure.

 

[EnviroTO]

If you mean the risk is private business having a monopoly on key pieces of public infrastructure for long terms then I agree. No contract the goverment signs should have a term beyond 10 years. I am relieved in a big way the Union Pearson deal for Union Station never happened.

 

[kettal]

The MTO Tender Price index increased 33.7% for the 4.5 years from 2004/2005 Q4 to 2009/2010 Q2. For the 4 full years from 2004/2005 to 2008/2009 it increased 41.6%. For the 10 full years from 1998/1999 to 2008/2009 it increased 82.6%.

A slowdown or decrease in the future is possible. Commodity prices will go down when china's economic bubble bursts.

 

[nfitz]

A slowdown or decrease in the future is possible. Commodity prices will go down when china's economic bubble bursts.

It's hard to imagine that it would increase at the same rate as the last 10 years ... but I said the same thing 5 years ago about the previous 5 years.

Two of the primary drivers however are oil and rock. Oil isn't getting any more plentiful, and recent government decisions regarding quarrying around the GTA could well put stone prices through the roof.