Issues w/Cresford Development HQ

[Observer Walt]

I'm interested in whether the average size of the houses/condos being compared year over year are the same. It seems logical to me that if there happened to be one or two expensive houses/condos being sold in the same period the previous year, it will skew the average a bit. Even if there are no outliers, there can be a general trend towards the selling of smaller units or larger units, which will also distort the picture.

I think the best comparison would be houses sold on the same street and the same condition/size being compared year over year. But this could be wishful thinking to get detailed stats like this.

This point is well taken. In appraisal work, you find another property that sold (the comparable property), then you adjust for differences. Theoretically, the first adjustment is for time, in order to place them on an equivalent basis from the point of view of time. To do this, you either use large volumes of statistics, if they are available (median or average prices across the Real Estate Board zone, sometimes), or you find paired sales (two properties that have sold, that are exactly alike except for time of sale), which are obviously very difficult to find in most cases, or you find resales of the same property (rare).

I saw the map in the G&M. The zones they use are so small that the amount of data in most cases would have been quite limited. I'm also not quite sure what to make of a small area that showed a major drop, right next door to an area which seems very similar in character which had a major increase. Interpret this stuff with caution.

 

[Therion]

It's not just the CASA friends...the speculative bubble in pre-constructions units all across the GTA is quickly coming unwound...

See the following chart for evidence of 9% drop in the Cityplace and Fort York through the first 8 months of 2009 over 2008:

Dude, you're comparing the height of the housing market to the bottom. Of course it's going to look bad. We're way past that stage, and when you see the numbers for October, they will probably be above last year's. Low interest rates and increasing optimism about the economy have re-started the housing frenzy. It's mostly concentrated in low-rise housing right now, but the condo market has definitely picked up, as well.

 

[safeashouses]

Yes, Walt makes some good points while Therion, you appear to be a little overzealous and not objective.

If we look at the Cityplace zone I think that we'll see a pretty decent amount of data across 8 months of 2009.
It's a huge complex so we can expect to find a great variety of sales and units types. My guess is that with all those
buildings there were probably hundreds of closing to compare. And the data shows clearly that over 2008 prices have fallen
9%. Why is that so hard to fathom? The economy is god awful, new competition for units appears practically every month and
lenders are tighter even if money is cheaper. Cityplace/Fort York is exactly where I'd expect to see weakness in the market
and even more going forward.

In contracts I don't think an area of single family homes is necessarily a worthwhile comparison due to the enormous potential
differences in housing prices as well as the smaller number of sales.

Do any realtors have access to all Cityplace data year over year? I gather it's easy to find.

 

[rbt]

See the following chart for evidence of 9% drop in the Cityplace and Fort York through the first 8 months of 2009 over 2008

There is at least one unit in Fort York (Atlantis) which sold for 15% more in September 2009 than it did in November 2008 with no interior changes.

A single unit doesn't make a trend but the south facing upper level units in Atlantis don't have much turnover.

 

[daveto]

... when you see the numbers for October, they will probably be above last year's. .

Let's not forget that Oct 2008 prices were 13% below Oct 2007 after the financial crisis hit hard in Sept. 2008. As such I think we can say with some certainty that Oct 2009 prices will be higher than Oct 2008

 

[AKS]

I live at CP and I've noticed prices for N1 and WestOnehave increased since 2008 if that's any help. There may be a few here or there that might be lower if owners are in a hurry to sell.