Is the younger generation in Toronto more likely to use transit and will this trend last?

[wild goose chase]

I know many more young people nowadays that live in Toronto and don't own a car and rely on transit it seems compared to the past generation. The age at which people first drive seems to be getting higher -- there are many who do so after graduating high school or even post-secondary as adults rather than during high school now.

I don't know which part of this is due to the rising cost of owning a car (and house and well, many other things) compared to the past, and how much is due to transit becoming more attractive of an option and things like downtown living attracting suburbanites. But it's not just a trend for Toronto -- many US cities are also showing this and teenagers are driving less and less.

I wonder if this is a lasting trend or something that's just temporary (teenagers not being as able to afford cars as easily as they used to say a generation ago) and would change when the young folks settle down and can afford as well as feel the need for a car to get around more? Will the next generation have significantly more people using transit than current and past ones?

 

[LNahid2000]

I don't think it's temporary. As Toronto's population increases, it becomes less and less sustainable for people to drive. And I don't see Toronto's population decreasing anytime soon.

 

[ehlow]

Well you can get someone to drive you at the push of a button on your phone or rent a car easily these days. So it's easier and easier not to own one if you need to drive occasionally.

I think there will be major changes in urban transit soon since companies like Apple, Google, Uber are investing huge amounts of money & talent. Wouldn't be surprised if owning a car is a thing of the past for more and more people living in urban areas.

 

[wild goose chase]

It also seems like getting a driver's license is less of a "rite of passage" like it used to be. Before it seems like everyone was itching to drive after their 16th birthday.

 

[andrewpmk]

I think it is mostly because car insurance in the GTA is expensive. Most people have a pretty unfavourable opinion of the TTC in my experience.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I remember when in 2004 I moved to Fredericton, NB. I know, hardly an urban metropolis, but my house and office were both right on the bus line. When I mentioned during my job interview that I would take the bus, the employer laughed and said only poor people, old people and student took the bus. I bought a car, and a vintage motorcycle, and never took the bus.

Here in Toronto, if one already owns a car and uses it for more than one person, there's not much incentive to taking transit. If I take my kids from Cabbagetown to the ROM, for instance, it's $12 for my wife and I on TTC, while the kids are free, or it's about the same to park the car.

I just wish my experiences on the TTC were better, or more accurately my kids' experience. Every time I think of acting like a good urbanite and take my 12 year old daughter on the streetcar, it seems there's an insane or nearly homeless guy muttering to himself, or the whole car smells of piss and is littered with rubbish. I tell my daughter when she's 14 she can take the streetcar herself to school, and her reply strongly in the negative. If the TTC would revert to the old days of two staffers per car, like on my granddad's London (UK) bus, the urine soaked nutbars would be somewhat deterred and a level of decorum may be experienced by all.

 

[crs1026]

Mobility in the city is so good that a car simply isn't needed any more, and it may be more bother than it's worth. For instance, these days people will not drive to an event where alcohol is served, not because they plan to get hammered but because they don't want the hassle if they are pulled over or have an accident with any alcohol whatsoever on their breath. It's so easy to just grab Uber home. Even parking is enough inconvenience to deter driving.

The young people I know who do acquire vehicles seem to do it mostly for employment. Either transit isn't good for their particular commute, or they work late hours and transit just feels sketchy, or whatever.

There are lots of children and tweens taking transit to school or to the mall or whatever. They seem pretty street smart and I don't see many looking like they don't want to be there. It seems to be taken for granted.

I know what you mean about the grunge factor . CLRV/ALRV cleanliness is very poor, and many buses aren't much better. The TTC's choice of bus interiors makes them look a lot dingier than some of the other properties. Brampton's buses aren't that much cleaner, but they look more cheerful anyways. There is the occasional "odd" person, but I have never seen a truly unmanageable situation. You learn to just look away or move down the car.

I have far greater exception about what goes on on GO at night with entitled drunken 18-25 year olds from the burbs.

- Paul

 

[Hopkins123]

Yes, the trend will last because car ownership is increasingly becoming unsustainable in our economic climate. Youth aren't landing the 30 year careers at one company that their parents and grandparents had. They're living paycheque to paycheque, a silent majority of them, and if forced to choose between a car and rent & food they're going to sacrifice a car and take transit.

 

[ottbike]

^There is also the inconvenience of owning a car - insurance, parking it, costs to park it, fuel, etc, that make it unattractive for many urban dwellers. Data shows that fewer young people are getting their full G licenses, and choosing instead to take transit or car share. Look at how successful zipcar and car2go are becoming if you need evidence of this.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I don't think it's temporary. As Toronto's population increases, it becomes less and less sustainable for people to drive. And I don't see Toronto's population decreasing anytime soon.

City of Toronto will add 1 Million people in 24 years. The proportion of drivers will go down, if only because there isn't enough space on the roads.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Well you can get someone to drive you at the push of a button on your phone or rent a car easily these days. So it's easier and easier not to own one if you need to drive occasionally.

I think there will be major changes in urban transit soon since companies like Apple, Google, Uber are investing huge amounts of money & talent. Wouldn't be surprised if owning a car is a thing of the past for more and more people living in urban areas.

My own experience as a young person is that the number one mode is TTC, and if not TTC then Uber.

 

[ottbike]

The trend might not last though if Uber successfully takes over the world

 

[kEiThZ]

The nature of car use will change too. With automation. That said, transit use is only starting to approach European levels of service. We're not yet close to the reliability you see in other major cities around the world. You'll see changes, not just with young people, but with residents all over this city on transit use. The determinant isn't age. It's access to great transit service. Look at the difference in transit use between Scarborough and Pickering or Markham next door. Or Etobicoke and Mississauga or Brampton.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

^There is also the inconvenience of owning a car - insurance, parking it, costs to park it, fuel, etc, that make it unattractive for many urban dwellers. Data shows that fewer young people are getting their full G licenses, and choosing instead to take transit or car share. Look at how successful zipcar and car2go are becoming if you need evidence of this.

I'm curious about what percentage of young people got their licence voluntarily. A lot of times when I ask, the response is, "I didn't want it, mom and dad made me get it", and that they rarely use the drivers licence to drive themselves or friends; the times they drive is when their parents make them drive.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The nature of car use will change too. With automation. That said, transit use is only starting to approach European levels of service. We're not yet close to the reliability you see in other major cities around the world. You'll see changes, not just with young people, but with residents all over this city on transit use. The determinant isn't age. It's access to great transit service. Look at the difference in transit use between Scarborough and Pickering or Markham next door. Or Etobicoke and Mississauga or Brampton.

If self driving cars become available as fast as automakers are expecting, autonomous vehicles will be prominent before many current 16 to 20 year olds reach the point in their lives where they'd seriously consider purchasing cars. This whole discussion about young people and driving would be moot in that case.