Working on Joe's campaign, I've had ward by ward polling numbers to look at for the last few months and have noticed a few patterns. It's especially interesting to compare the numbers to 2006. Here is a poll by poll map I did of Miller's vote in 2006:
Here is the same map for 2003:
Miller dominated downtown, but that is not enough to be elected mayor. What put him in the mayor's office in 2003 was also winning areas in southern Scarborough and Etobicoke based on waterfront issues, and high immigrant/low income areas in the northeast and northwest of the city. Smitherman both failed to get as much of the downtown vote as Miller, and lost badly to Ford along the suburban waterfront and in the Rexdale/Jane-Finch/Malvern areas.
Smitherman outperformed Miller in the central belt running from Rosedale, through Leaside, the Bridle Path and up into Willowdale. These were some of Miller's worst areas in both elections, and some of the few areas in Toronto that vote Conservative federally, but Smitherman either won or came close to Ford in all these districts. Ford is not much liked by wealthy conservatives. The private school and country club set, which is still a core Tory constituency, doesn't have much time for Ford.
Joe's vote pattern is also very different from Miller's. Joe's strongest wards were downtown, but his second strongest area of support is along the Weston corridor, areas like York, Downsview, and Humber Summit. These were some of Miller's worst areas, but were some of Joe's best. The population in these areas tends to be working class with a large Italian and Portuguese community. Joe appealed to these communities more than Miller did. These voters also tended to be choosing between Ford and Joe.
